A note on computing Louis’ observed information matrix identity for IRT and cognitive diagnostic models

Using Louis’ formula, it is possible to obtain the observed information matrix and the corresponding large-sample standard error estimates after the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm has converged. However, Louis’ formula is commonly de-emphasized due to its relatively complex integration representation, particularly when studying latent variable models. This paper provides a holistic overview that demonstrates how Louis’ formula can be applied efficiently to item response theory (IRT) models and other popular latent variable models, such as cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs). After presenting the algebraic components required for Louis’ formula, two real data analyses, with accompanying numerical illustrations, are presented. Next, a Monte Carlo simulation is presented to compare the computational efficiency of Louis’ formula with previously existing methods. Results from these presentations suggest that Louis’ formula should be adopted as a standard method when computing the observed information matrix for IRT models and CDMs fitted with the EM algorithm due to its computational efficiency and flexibility.     

初中生友谊质量与孤独感的变化轨迹:一项多元潜变量增长模型分析

为考察初中生友谊质量与孤独感的变化轨迹及两者间的关系,采用关系网络问卷、孤独感量表对西安市的875名初中生（M=12.73±0.18;男生494名）进行三年追踪测量,使用多元潜变量增长模型进行分析。结果发现：（1）初中三年,中学生的友谊质量逐渐提高,孤独感水平逐渐下降;（2）初一时的友谊质量和孤独感水平存在显著的个体差异,初中三年期间二者的发展速度也存在个体差异;（3）初一时的友谊质量可显著预测初一时的孤独感水平（β=-1.77,p<0.001）及随后的发展速度（β=0.20,p<0.05）;（4）男生的孤独感水平初始值高于女生,友谊质量的初始值则低于女生;高SES个体孤独感的起始值高于低SES个体。本研究结果揭示了初中三年期间个体友谊质量与孤独感的动态变化关系及友谊质量对孤独感的预测作用,对改善青少年孤独感的现状有一定的现实指导意义。     

Human Self-Domestication and the Evolution of Pragmatics

As proposed for the emergence of modern languages, we argue that modern uses of languages (pragmatics) also evolved gradually in our species under the effects of human self-domestication, with three key aspects involved in a complex feedback loop: (a) a reduction in reactive aggression, (b) the sophistication of language structure (with emerging grammars initially facilitating the transition from physical aggression to verbal aggression); and (c) the potentiation of pragmatic principles governing conversation, including, but not limited to, turn-taking and inferential abilities. Our core hypothesis is that the reduction in reactive aggression, one of the key factors in self-domestication processes, enabled us to fully exploit our cognitive and interactional potential as applied to linguistic exchanges, and ultimately to evolve a specific form of communication governed by persuasive reciprocity—a trait of human conversation characterized by both competition and cooperation. In turn, both early crude forms of language, well suited for verbal aggression/insult, and later more sophisticated forms of language, well suited for persuasive reciprocity, significantly contributed to the resolution and reduction of (physical) aggression, thus having a return effect on the self-domestication processes. Supporting evidence for our proposal, as well as grounds for further testing, comes mainly from the consideration of cognitive disorders, which typically simultaneously present abnormal features of self-domestication (including aggressive behavior) and problems with pragmatics and social functioning. While various approaches to language evolution typically reduce it to a single factor, our approach considers language evolution as a multifactorial process, with each player acting upon the other, engaging in an intense mutually reinforcing feedback loop. Moreover, we see language evolution as a gradual process, continuous with the pre-linguistic cognitive abilities, which were engaged in a positive feedback loop with linguistic innovations, and where gene-culture co-evolution and cultural niche construction were the main driving forces.     

Dynamics Versus Development in Numerosity Estimation: A Computational Model Accurately Predicts a Developmental Reversal

Perceptual judgments result from a dynamic process, but little is known about the dynamics of number-line estimation. A recent study proposed a computational model that combined a model of trial-to-trial changes with a model for the internal scaling of discrete numbers. Here, we tested a surprising prediction of the model—a situation in which children's estimates of numerosity would be better than those of adults. Consistent with the model simulations, task contexts led to a clear developmental reversal: children made more adult-like, linear estimates when to-be-estimated numbers were descending over trials (i.e., backward condition), whereas adults became more like children with logarithmic estimates when numbers were ascending (i.e., forward condition). In addition, adults’ estimates were subject to inter-trial differences regardless of stimulus order. In contrast, children were not able to use the trial-to-trial dynamics unless stimuli varied systematically, indicating the limited cognitive capacity for dynamic updates. Together, the model adequately predicts both developmental and trial-to-trial changes in number-line tasks.     

中国人社会善念的心理结构

为探究中国人社会善念的心理结构, 研究采用人格词汇法, 在开放调查收集的词汇中选取代表社会善念的心理词语, 确立了社会善念词库。通过两次探索性因素分析和验证性因素分析, 得到包含18个人格特质词的社会善念词汇评定量表和包含17项描述的社会善念自陈量表。研究表明, 中国人的社会善念是一种具有二阶四因素结构的人际特质, 二阶是指宜人特质和外倾特质, 四因素分别是善良尊重、谦和恭逊、包容理解和积极开放。     

What could be My Next Job? Using Flat Information Structures to Generate Creative Future Career Ideas

In a dynamic labor market, it is important to help people combine information and generate creative solutions to cope with complex career challenges. In the present research, we apply the theory of information structure to creative career idea generation and hypothesize that flat information structures—that is, structures in which the information is disorganized—are more conducive to creativity than hierarchical information structures—that is, structures in which information is organized in higher‐order categories. In two experimental studies, participants had to combine career information related to self and work preferences that was presented either in flat or hierarchical structures. We found that flat information structures, compared with hierarchical information structures, led to future career ideas that were more creative on average. Our results suggest that cognitive flexibility explains the effect of information structure on the creativity of career ideas. Theoretical implications and suggestions for career management practices are discussed.     

Adaptations in driver deceleration behaviour with automatic incident detection: A naturalistic driving study

Traffic congestion and crash rates can be reduced by introducing variable speed limits (VSLs) and automatic incident detection (AID) systems. Previous findings based on loop detector measurements have revealed that drivers reduce their speeds while approaching traffic congestion when the AID system is active. Notwithstanding these behavioural effects, most microscopic traffic flow models assessing the impact of VSLs do not describe driver response accurately.This study analyses the main factors that influence driver deceleration behaviour while approaching traffic congestion with and without VSLs. The Dutch VSL database was linked to the driver behaviour data collected in the UDRIVE naturalistic driving study. Driver engagement in secondary tasks and glance behaviour were extracted from the video data. Linear mixed-effects models predicting the characteristics of deceleration events were estimated.The results show that the maximum deceleration is high when approaching a slower leader, when driving at high speeds and short distance headways, and close to the beginning of traffic congestion. The minimum time headway is short when driving at high speeds and changing lanes. Certain drivers showed higher decelerations and shorter time headways than others. Controlled for these main factors, smaller maximum decelerations were found when the VSLs were present and visible, and when the gantries were within close proximity. These factors could be incorporated into microscopic traffic simulations to evaluate the impact of AID systems on traffic congestion more realistically. Further research is needed to clarify the link between engagement in secondary tasks, glance behaviour and deceleration behaviour.     

Trust and intention to use autonomous vehicles: Manufacturer focus and passenger control

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) research has focused on public acceptance of and intention to use AVs, with trust emerging as important to these variables. Research on AV trust has centered on trust in vehicle performance. However, trust evaluation may include AV manufacturers and developers, and regulation pertaining to AVs; thus, we expand our measurement of trust to include beliefs based on manufacturers and regulation. In this experiment, we manipulate information regarding manufacturer focus (i.e., an emphasis on standards, regulations, and research (SRR) versus speed to market) to determine its effect on trust. When information focused on SRR, we found higher levels of trust in AV performance and in manufacturers, compared to when it focused on speed to market. In addition, information regarding passenger control (i.e., the ability to take over for the vehicle and to determine privacy settings) was manipulated to yield either high or low passenger control conditions. Behavioral Intention (BI) to use AVs was lowest when speed to market was emphasized and when passenger control was low. Furthermore, trust was tested as a mediator between perceived risk and BI. Trust in AV performance partially mediated the relationship between perceived AV performance risk and BI. In addition, trust in AV regulation partially mediated the relationship between AV privacy/security risk and BI. Researchers should continue to examine trust beyond the AV itself to encompass trust in manufacturers and regulations. Those designing and marketing AVs should carefully consider decisions that influence manufacturer/developer reputation and passenger control due to their effect on intention to use AVs.     

Learning algorithm for an intelligent decision making system based on multi-agent neurocognitive architectures

The paper presents the formalism of an intelligent decision-making system based on multi-agent neurocognitive architectures, which has an architectural similarity to the human brain. An invariant of the organizational and functional structure of the intellectual decision-making process based on the multi-agent neurocognitive architecture is developed. An algorithm for teaching intelligent decision-making systems based on the self-organization of the invariant of multi-agent neurocognitive architectures is presented. Using this algorithm, an intelligent agent was trained and the architecture of the learning process was built on the basis of an invariant of neurocognitive architecture. Further research is related to training an intelligent agent in more complex behavior and expanding the capabilities of an intelligent decision-making system based on multi-agent neurocognitive architectures.     

Modeling talent development pathways in alpine ski racers

We explore developmental pathways to excellence in sub-elite adolescent alpine ski racing by exploring athletes' engagement in practice activities that characterize sport specialization and/or diversification. Moreover, we extend previous research by using more refined linear mixed-effects models to examine changes in practice and performance data over time rather than relying on the less sensitive repeated measures ANOVAs typically used in previous research. Altogether, 174 individuals (M = 15.9 yrs, women = 91) from professional development academies in the United States completed a sport-specific Practice History Questionnaire (PHQ). We recorded national rankings in technical events to assess performance. Mixed-effects models indicated that hours in ski-related activities generally increased over time (linear β = 1.38, p's < 0.001), except time spent in play, which decreased over time (β = 102.8, p = 0.002). Performance rankings also improved over time (β = 30.99, p < 0.001), with more time spent in ski-activity associated with greater rates of improvement, particularly in younger skiers (β = 9.77, p's < 0.001). The effects were largely driven by time spent in coach-led group practice (β = 2.16, p < 0.001). Overall, an earlier age of first engagement was associated with better rankings (β = −15.40, p = 0.024), and accumulating more hours in other sports was also associated with greater rates of performance improvement (β = −8.87, p = 0.014). Sub-elite alpine ski racers engage early in the sport, with higher-ranked athletes spending more time in ski-specific practice, particularly group practice, during development. However, these athletes generally continued to participate in other sports across development, providing greater support for the early engagement hypothesis rather than early specialization per se.