Stolen elections: How conspiracy beliefs during the 2020 American presidential elections changed over time

Conspiracy beliefs have been studied mostly through cross-sectional designs. We conducted a five-wave longitudinal study (N = 376; two waves before and three waves after the 2020 American presidential elections) to examine if the election results influenced specific conspiracy beliefs and conspiracy mentality, and whether effects differ between election winners (i.e., Biden voters) versus losers (i.e., Trump voters) at the individual level. Results revealed that conspiracy mentality kept unchanged over 2 months, providing first evidence that this indeed is a relatively stable trait. Specific conspiracy beliefs (outgroup and ingroup conspiracy beliefs) did change over time, however. In terms of group-level change, outgroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time for Biden voters but increased for Trump voters. Ingroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time across all voters, although those of Trump voters decreased faster. These findings illuminate how specific conspiracy beliefs are, and conspiracy mentality is not, influenced by an election event.     

A maximum likelihood method for latent class regression involving a censored dependent variable

The standard tobit or censored regression model is typically utilized for regression analysis when the dependent variable is censored. This model is generalized by developing a conditional mixture, maximum likelihood method for latent class censored regression. The proposed method simultaneously estimates separate regression functions and subject membership in K latent classes or groups given a censored dependent variable for a cross-section of subjects. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained using an EM algorithm. The proposed method is illustrated via a consumer psychology application.     

Analyzing sequential categorical data: Individual variation in markov chains

Markov chains are probabilistic models for sequences of categorical events, with applications throughout scientific psychology. This paper provides a method for anlayzing data consisting of event sequences and covariate observations. It is assumed that each sequence is a Markov process characterized by a distinct transition probability matrix. The objective is to use the covariate data to explain differences between individuals in the transition probability matrices characterizing their sequential data. The elements of the transition probability matrices are written as functions of a vector of latent variables, with variation in the latent variables explained through a multivariate regression on the covariates. The regression is estimated using the EM algorithm, and requires the numerical calculation of a multivariate integral. An example using simulated cognitive developmental data is presented, which shows that the estimation of individual variation in the parameters of a probability model may have substantial theoretical importance, even when individual differences are not the focus of the investigator's concerns.Research contributing to this article was supported by B.R.S. Subgrant 5-35345 from the University of Virginia. I thank the DADA Group, Bill Fabricius, Don Hartmann, William Griffin, Jack McArdle, Ivo Molenaar, Ronald Schoenberg, Simon Tavaré, and several anonymous reviewers for their discussion of these points.     

Continuous and discrete latent structure models for item response data

Relations are examined between latent trait and latent class models for item response data. Conditions are given for the two-latent class and two-parameter normal ogive models to agree, and relations between their item parameters are presented. Generalizationss are then made to continuous models with more than one latent trait and discrete models with more than two latent classes, and methods are presented for relating latent class models to factor models for dichotomized variables. Results are illustrated using data from the Law School Admission Test, previously analyzed by several authors.     

The specific action of different personality risk factors on cancer of the breast, cervix, corpus uteri and other types of cancer: A prospective investigation

We report the results of a prospective study of a random sample of 1353 elderly but healthy men and women who were followed up for a period of 10 yr, when mortality and cause of death were ascertained. Overall results have been reported elsewhere for mortality from cancer, coronary heart disease and other causes; here we are concerned with the personality factors predicting breast cancer, cervical cancer, cancer of the corpus uteri specifically, as well as other types of cancer in women. Ten specific hypotheses were tested, using specially constructed questionnaires for the purpose, and for most of these statistically significant support was obtained. The results justify belief that specific types of cancer may be related to specific stress/personality factors.     

Residualanalysis in the polytomous rasch model

Residuals for check of model fit in the polytomous Rasch model are examined. Comparisons are made between using counts for all response pattern and using item totals for score groups for the construction of the residuals. Comparisons are also, for the residuals based on score group totals, made between using as basis the item totals, or using the estimated item parameters. The developed methods are illustrated by two examples, one from a psychiatric rating scale, one from a Danish Welfare Study.     

An extension of the concept of specific objectivity

Comparisons of subjects are specifically objective if they do not depend on the items involved. Such comparisons are not restricted to the 1-parameter logistic latent trait model, but may also be defined within ordinal independence models and even within the 2-parameter logistic model.     

My place,your place,and no place: Behavior settings as a risk factor for HIV-related injection practices of drug users in Baltimore,Maryland

Information is sparse on the social context of illicit drug injection behaviors and their relationship to HIV infection. This study examined relationships between injection settings, injecting with others, and HIV risk behaviors of sharing needles and not cleaning contaminated needles in a sample of 630 inner-city injecting drug users in Baltimore, MD. Through open-ended interviews, five primary settings of injection behavior were identified. These settings included one's own, friends' and mother's residence, shooting galleries, and semipublic areas. Most participants reported injecting in their own residence (92%) and friends' residence (86%) in the prior 6 months. In a multiple regression analysis, injecting at friends' residence, in shooting galleries, and in semipublic areas and frequency of injecting with others were significantly associated with frequency of sharing uncleaned needles, “slipping” (i.e., failure to disinfect shared needles), and not always cleaning used needles before injecting. Results suggest that interventions may benefit from targeting settings as well as behaviors to reduce the spread of HIV. This research was supported by grants DA04334, DA05911, DA06313, and DA08985 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.     

Long term marriages in Sweden: And some comparisons with similar couples in the United States

This international, five-country long term marriages study of couples who have been married, or unmarried and cohabiting, for 20 years or longer is designed to study, among other things, marital satisfaction. This first report of the Swedish part of the study reports on a Swedish version of the self-rating Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS) used to investigate self-rated marital satisfaction. The couples describe high marital satisfaction and a high sense of coherence (SOC) compared to other groups. Contrary to other studies, no differences were found between men and women regarding SOC. The differences between them, that describe high relative to low marital satisfaction, pertain to matters of recreation, sex, life philosophy, time spent together, and frequency of quarrels. The men reported greater marital satisfaction than the women.     

Procedural dependence in action memory: Effects of verb form and individual vs group conditions

Two experiments explored whether the magnitude of the enactment effect in action memory (i. e., higher recall with motor than with non-motor encoding) may depend upon the use of individual or group testing procedures. Nonmotor encoding instructions, requiring the subjects to listen to orally presented action items, were compared to instructions which also required enactment. With encoding treated as a within-subject factor, the observations failed to reveal any significant difference between individual and group testing. With encoding treated as a between-subject factor, the results showed an interaction between test and encoding conditions, such that an enactment effect was found only with group testing. Different support value for auditory cues in group and individual test situations was assumed to account for this difference. In a third experiment the indicative and imperative verb forms were compared. An interaction was observed, showing that in Norwegian, enacted verbs were remembered better when presented in the indicative than in the imperative. No corresponding difference was found under non-enactment conditions. For this finding, a social interaction interpretation was offered.