Analyzing sequential categorical data: Individual variation in markov chains

Markov chains are probabilistic models for sequences of categorical events, with applications throughout scientific psychology. This paper provides a method for anlayzing data consisting of event sequences and covariate observations. It is assumed that each sequence is a Markov process characterized by a distinct transition probability matrix. The objective is to use the covariate data to explain differences between individuals in the transition probability matrices characterizing their sequential data. The elements of the transition probability matrices are written as functions of a vector of latent variables, with variation in the latent variables explained through a multivariate regression on the covariates. The regression is estimated using the EM algorithm, and requires the numerical calculation of a multivariate integral. An example using simulated cognitive developmental data is presented, which shows that the estimation of individual variation in the parameters of a probability model may have substantial theoretical importance, even when individual differences are not the focus of the investigator's concerns.Research contributing to this article was supported by B.R.S. Subgrant 5-35345 from the University of Virginia. I thank the DADA Group, Bill Fabricius, Don Hartmann, William Griffin, Jack McArdle, Ivo Molenaar, Ronald Schoenberg, Simon Tavaré, and several anonymous reviewers for their discussion of these points.     

New lower and upper bounds for communality in factor analysis

We derive several relationships between communalities and the eigenvalues for ap ×p correlation matrix under the usual factor analysis model. For suitable choices ofj, _j (), where _j () is thej-th largest eigenvalue of , provides either a lower or an upper bound to the communalities for some of the variables. We show that for at least one variable, 1 - _p () improves on the use of squared mulitiple correlation coefficient as a lower bound.This research was done while the second author was at Tokyo Institute of Technology.     

Type A behaviour in pre-school children: Interrater reliability, stability over six months and subcomponents

Type A behaviour was measured in 250 boys and 245 girls (ages 3-7) using a Swedish version of Matthews' Youth Test for Health (MYTH). In addition, speech and voice characteristics (speed, loudness, response latency) were measured. Each child was independently rated by two play group leaders and measurements were repeated after a six month interval. Interrater reliability (first session) was 0.76 for both sexes and did not change with the age of the child. Boys obtained significantly (p less than 0.0001) higher scores than girls. Correlations over the six month period were 0.64 and 0.60 (p less than 0.001) for the two possible combinations of different raters and slightly higher (0.75 and 0.68, p less than 0.001) when the same rater was used. Two components of Type A behaviour were identified from a factor analysis of the data: impatience and competitiveness, and they accounted for 57% of the total variance. As for the total scale, boys obtained significantly higher scores than girls on both subscales. Scores on the competitiveness scale increased systematically with age. Speech and voice characteristics correlated significantly with Type A scores (total Type A behaviour: r = 0.50, using different raters, and 0.71, using the same raters, p less than 0.001) and, once again, boys obtained significantly (p less than 0.001) higher scores than girls. The results are in close agreement with the American findings from the original scale. It was concluded that the scale provides a reliable and valid instrument for measuring Type A or Type A-like behaviours in pre-school children.     

Continuous and discrete latent structure models for item response data

Relations are examined between latent trait and latent class models for item response data. Conditions are given for the two-latent class and two-parameter normal ogive models to agree, and relations between their item parameters are presented. Generalizationss are then made to continuous models with more than one latent trait and discrete models with more than two latent classes, and methods are presented for relating latent class models to factor models for dichotomized variables. Results are illustrated using data from the Law School Admission Test, previously analyzed by several authors.     

快速书写条件下硬笔笔迹变量与认知及个性特征的关系

以圆珠笔为书写工具．北京市某中学高一学生为被试,有效数据169人．探讨了在快速抄写条件下,笔迹书写特征与认知及个性的关系：18个笔迹变量可抽取笔压、结构、特征、字体和空间五个反映字的书写特征的因素;书写特征与认知因素间,横、竖笔压与概念形成速度。整篇压与视力追踪、字位与眼手协调相关显著;横笔压与16PF测验中的畏缩退怯——冒险敢为有正相关;竖笔压与艾森克个性因素的N有高相关。     

Finite mixtures in confirmatory factor-analysis models

In this paper, various types of finite mixtures of confirmatory factor-analysis models are proposed for handling data heterogeneity. Under the proposed mixture approach, observations are assumed to be drawn from mixtures of distinct confirmatory factor-analysis models. But each observation does not need to be identified to a particular model prior to model fitting. Several classes of mixture models are proposed. These models differ by their unique representations of data heterogeneity. Three different sampling schemes for these mixture models are distinguished. A mixed type of the these three sampling schemes is considered throughout this article. The proposed mixture approach reduces to regular multiple-group confirmatory factor-analysis under a restrictive sampling scheme, in which the structural equation model for each observation is assumed to be known. By assuming a mixture of multivariate normals for the data, maximum likelihood estimation using the EM (Expectation-Maximization) algorithm and the AS (Approximate-Scoring) method are developed, respectively. Some mixture models were fitted to a real data set for illustrating the application of the theory. Although the EM algorithm and the AS method gave similar sets of parameter estimates, the AS method was found computationally more efficient than the EM algorithm. Some comments on applying the mixture approach to structural equation modeling are made.Note: This paper is one of the Psychometric Society's 1995 Dissertation Award papers.—EditorThis article is based on the dissertation of the author. The author would like to thank Peter Bentler, who was the dissertation chair, for guidance and encouragement of this work. Eric Holman, Robert Jennrich, Bengt Muthén, and Thomas Wickens, who served as the committee members for the dissertation, had been very supportive and helpful. Michael Browne is appreciated for discussing some important points about the use of the approximate information in the dissertation. Thanks also go to an anonymous associate editor, whose comments were very useful for the revision of an earlier version of this article.     

初级指挥官人格类型与PM领导行为类型有效性的关系

通过对陆军初级指挥官人格心理类型与领导行为有效性的心理学研究 ,探讨个人的领导潜能、人格心理类型对领导行为有效性的影响。研究发现 :1方差分析表明 ,具有不同领导行为的指挥官在人格维度上存在明显的统计学差异。提示了指挥官的领导行为取向与人格因素有密切的关系。2卡方分析结果也表明 ,PM型行为的军官在其人格特征上具有“ESTJ”组合特征 ,而 pm型的军官则正好相反 ;另外 ,pm型的军官在成就动机上获得高分的人数最少。3系统聚类分析显示 ,“成就动机”、“感觉”和“判断”三种人格因素与军事指挥官完成整体领导职能有着更为密切的关系。     

计量测验效度的一种方法——测量目标结构空间的实证性因素分析

该文提出了计量测验效度的一种统一方法。首先,根据测量目标由测验编制者提出一组可能的线性拟合模型,拟合模型的集合称作“测量目标结构空间”。然后运用实证性因素分析对各个假设的拟合模型进行多方面的拟合良好性检验。若其中的某一假设模型能最优地拟合预测资料,则该模型中的公共因素的方差总贡献与观测变量的总方差的比就可定义为该测验的效度     

教育因素对认知功能年老化过程的影响

应用言语－操作和人机对话两种方式共１２项作业,完成年龄和教育因素对认知功能影响的研究,被试共７３４人,４６－７５岁．结果表明：（１）年龄和教育因素对认知成绩的影响因作业而异,分别为年龄影响明显（图象自由回忆和无意义图形再认）、教育因素影响明显（卡片分类、图象分类和矩阵填图）、年龄和教育因素影响均明显（符号数字、词对联想学习、听觉和视觉数字广度）或均不明显（心算）．（２）四项非词语性作业速度明显受年龄和教育因素的双重影响．     

Application of the bootstrap methods in factor analysis

A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to investigate the performance of the bootstrap methods in normal theory maximum likelihood factor analysis both when the distributional assumption is satisfied and unsatisfied. The parameters and their functions of interest include unrotated loadings, analytically rotated loadings, and unique variances. The results reveal that (a) bootstrap bias estimation performs sometimes poorly for factor loadings and nonstandardized unique variances; (b) bootstrap variance estimation performs well even when the distributional assumption is violated; (c) bootstrap confidence intervals based on the Studentized statistics are recommended; (d) if structural hypothesis about the population covariance matrix is taken into account then the bootstrap distribution of the normal theory likelihood ratio test statistic is close to the corresponding sampling distribution with slightly heavier right tail.This study was carried out in part under the ISM cooperative research program (91-ISM · CRP-85, 92-ISM · CRP-102). The authors would like to thank the editor and three reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions which improved the quality of this paper considerably.