The effects of interval duration on temporal tracking and alternation learning

On cyclic-interval reinforcement schedules, animals typically show a postreinforcement pause that is a function of the immediately preceding time interval (temporal tracking). Animals, however, do not track single-alternation schedules-when two different intervals are presented in strict alternation on successive trials. In this experiment, pigeons were first trained with a cyclic schedule consisting of alternating blocks of 12 short intervals (5 s or 30 s) and 12 long intervals (180 s), followed by three different single-alternation interval schedules: (a) 30 s and 180 s, (b) 5 s and 180 s, and (c) 5 s and 30 s. Pigeons tracked both schedules with alternating blocks of 12 intervals. With the single-alternation schedules, when the short interval duration was 5 s, regardless of the duration of the longer interval, pigeons learned the alternation pattern, and their pause anticipated the upcoming interval. When the shorter interval was 30 s, even when the ratio of short to long intervals was kept at 6:1, pigeons did not initially show anticipatory pausing-a violation of the principle of timescale invariance.     

On the sampling interpretation of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests in the context of conditional maximum likelihood estimation

In the context ofconditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation, confidence intervals can be interpreted in three different ways, depending on the sampling distribution under which these confidence intervals contain the true parameter value with a certain probability. These sampling distributions are (a) the distribution of the data given theincidental parameters, (b) the marginal distribution of the data (i.e., with the incidental parameters integrated out), and (c) the conditional distribution of the data given the sufficient statistics for the incidental parameters. Results on the asymptotic distribution of CML estimates under sampling scheme (c) can be used to construct asymptotic confidence intervals using only the CML estimates. This is not possible for the results on the asymptotic distribution under sampling schemes (a) and (b). However, it is shown that theconditional asymptotic confidence intervals are also valid under the other two sampling schemes. I am indebted to Theo Eggen, Norman Verhelst and one of Psychometrika's reviewers for their helpful comments.     

Reply to William R. Ferrell's paper "Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both"

William R. Ferrell's paper is a reply to our article "Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: Two different accounts", 1993, 34, 135–148 in this journal. Ferrell's critique centres around three issues: (1) The model of sensory discrimination proposed by Björkman et al. (1993) and discussed in Winman and Juslin (1993) is not new, (2) this model does not predict underconfidence, (3) there is no need for separate models of calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments. Below we respond to each of the three issues raised by Ferrell.     

Moment of Truth: Why Aha! Experiences are Correct

Having a sudden insight is often associated with inherent confidence, enough for Archimedes to run naked through the streets shouting “Eureka!”. Recent evidence demonstrates that public displays of enthusiasm, such as the ancient polymath's, are actually supported by a higher likelihood of being correct.     

特征归纳的关联相似性模型

作者提出特征归纳的关联相似性模型,用以描述以归纳特征的关联特征相似性为基础的归纳推理,把归纳推理中相似性和关联知识统一整合起来。该模型认为归纳强度主要取决于归纳特征与关联特征的关联强度和关联特征的相似性程度的乘积,归纳信心主要取决于关联强度,从而分离归纳信心和归纳强度。以大学生为被试的两个实验的主要结果支持关联相似性模型的主要预测。关联相似性模型能够描述解释以关联特征相似性为基础的归纳推理现象,比以往的归纳理论具有更大的解释能力和解释范围     

国外关于自信的研究综述

近些年来自信研究已受到越来越多的心理学家的关注。文章对国外30多年来自信的理论和实证研究进行了系统综述,从概念和结构上阐述了国外自信研究的历史和现状,并从自信的差异研究、两极与反面研究以及影响因素3方面总结了具体研究领域的最新进展。在此基础上,指出了自信研究领域存在的问题和将来的研究方向。     

Condom Use Among U.S. Students: The Importance of Confidence in Normative and Attitudinal Perceptions

Abstract

The author performed a study among U.S. undergraduates to test an earlier conclusion (D. Trafimow, 1994) that confidence in the correctness of one's perceptions of normative pressure to use a condom influences the correspondence between those perceptions and the intentions actually to perform the behavior. Consistent with previous findings (Trafimow), the participants' perceptions of normative pressure strongly predicted their intentions to use condoms only under conditions of extreme normative confidence. Otherwise, their attitudes were better predictors of their intentions to use condoms. In addition, 2 other variables (attitudinal confidence and perceived behavioral control) were found to be unimportant predictors of intentions. Results of a 2nd study suggest that behaviors performed by sexual partners and knowing the sexual partners affected the participants' normative confidence.     

Repetition and Reconfiguration: Demand‐Based Confabulation in Initial Eyewitness Memory

Repeated recall, as a result of repeated questioning, is typical of situations involving eyewitness evidence. The present study addressed questions of eyewitness performance with reference to repeated questioning in an initial interview, in a format based on actual police procedures. This experiment focused on eyewitness accuracy, eyewitness confidence, and the addition of false details to eyewitness accounts. Ninety‐two adult respondents were asked to recall all the information they could from a single viewing of a scene depicting an assailant aiming a handgun at a victim. This initial question was followed by three additional questions, in which respondents were asked to report any additional details they could recall. On average, respondents provided several times as many correct as false details to the initial question. However, performance deteriorated significantly to the three subsequent questions; on average, across the three subsequent questions, witnesses recalled nearly as much false as accurate information. Witness confidence was positively related to amount of accurate information recalled. However, confidence was also positively related to the number of instances of erroneous recall. These results indicate that reconfigurative dynamics begin to operate, producing confabulated responses in response to questioning demands, as early as the initial interview. This work may also help to clarify the critical relationship between accuracy and confidence in eyewitness reportage, at least within the framework reflected by the present research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fisher transformation based confidence intervals of correlations in fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis

Meta-analyses of correlation coefficients are an important technique to integrate results from many cross-sectional and longitudinal research designs. Uncertainty in pooled estimates is typically assessed with the help of confidence intervals, which can double as hypothesis tests for two-sided hypotheses about the underlying correlation. A standard approach to construct confidence intervals for the main effect is the Hedges-Olkin-Vevea Fisher-z (HOVz) approach, which is based on the Fisher-z transformation. Results from previous studies (Field, 2005, Psychol. Meth., 10, 444; Hafdahl and Williams, 2009, Psychol. Meth., 14, 24), however, indicate that in random-effects models the performance of the HOVz confidence interval can be unsatisfactory. To this end, we propose improvements of the HOVz approach, which are based on enhanced variance estimators for the main effect estimate. In order to study the coverage of the new confidence intervals in both fixed- and random-effects meta-analysis models, we perform an extensive simulation study, comparing them to established approaches. Data were generated via a truncated normal and beta distribution model. The results show that our newly proposed confidence intervals based on a Knapp-Hartung-type variance estimator or robust heteroscedasticity consistent sandwich estimators in combination with the integral z-to-r transformation (Hafdahl, 2009, Br. J. Math. Stat. Psychol., 62, 233) provide more accurate coverage than existing approaches in most scenarios, especially in the more appropriate beta distribution simulation model.