What is the answer? And come to that, what are the questions?

In recent years, the topic of car-following has become of increased importance in traffic engineering and safety research. Models of this phenomenon, which describe the interaction between (typically) adjacent vehicles in the same lane, now form the cornerstone for many important areas of research including (a) simulation modelling, where the car-following model (amongst others) controls the motion of the vehicles in the network, and (b) the functional definition of advanced vehicle control and safety systems (AVCSS), which are being introduced as a driver safety aid in an effort to mimic driver behaviour but remove human error. Despite the importance of this area however, no overview of the models availability and validity exists. It is the intent of this paper therefore to briefly assess the range of options available in the choice of car-following model, and assess just how far work has proceeded in our understanding of what, at times, would appear to be a simple process.     

Utility of computerized case simulations in therapist training and evaluation

The present quasi-experimental study attempted to evaluate the utility of a set of three computer simulations for therapist training and evaluation by comparing psychology students from two universities at three training levels. The three groups consisted of junior and senior level undergraduates, first year graduate students, and third or fourth year graduate students. Analysis of outcome measures indicated subjects were generally accepting of computer simulation use for therapist training and evaluation and performance differences between the groups could be explained by group population differences. The results are discussed relative to the utility for computer simulations use for therapist training and evaluation.     

Validity of the strategic management simulations to predict real-world productivity

The performance of individual businesses and the economy as a whole hinges on the productivity of human capital, yet measuring productivity at an individual level has proved difficult. The Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) methodology comprises several decision-making assessment tools that have been used for several decades to estimate real-world productivity. Performance on productivity measures using a shorter version of the SMS methodology was gathered from a sample of 111 knowledge workers from major corporations in the U.S. and compared with their income level. In linear models, every percentile increase in SMS performance was associated with a $791–$1,113 increase in income in each of the four domains of decision-making performance provided by the SMS tool. The models had R²’s ranging from 0.65 to 0.75, indicating high levels of correlation between SMS performance and income levels. This study is the first to show linear relationships between SMS performance and other indicators of productivity, indicating that the SMS is a valid predictor of productivity and that SMS scores can be used to predict job satisfaction and performance.     

随机截距潜在转变分析(RI-LTA)——个案自我转变与个案间差异的分离

传统的潜在转变分析属于单水平分析, 但其同样也可以看作二水平分析。Muthén和Asparouhov就以二水平分析的视角在单水平分析框架内提出了随机截距潜在转变分析(RI-LTA), 其中跨时间点产生的自我转变可以看作在水平1进行分析, 跨时间点不变的个案间差异可以看作在水平2进行分析, 使个案的自我转变和个案间的初始差异分离, 避免了高估保留在初始类别的概率。某研究型大学2016级本科生的追踪调查数据被用于演示使用随机截距潜在转变分析的过程。该方法的最大优势是通过引入随机截距避免了高估保留在本类别的转变概率。未来研究可以运用蒙特卡洛模拟研究探究随机截距潜在转变分析模型的适用性, 也可以用多水平分析的思路为灵感, 探究多水平随机截距潜在转变分析在统计软件中的实现。     

The impact of courteous and discourteous drivers on physiological stress

Prior studies into road safety have concentrated largely on studying unsafe forms of driving behaviour such as aggressive, stressed, and risky driving. Little attention has been given to ‘positive’ driving behaviour, such as how pro-social driving may help to promote cooperation with other road users and decrease incidences of aggressive and stressful driving. This study aimed to compare the impact of courteous and discourteous driving on the immediate physical health of other drivers (blood pressure, heart rate, and markers of stress) whilst controlling for other recognized factors responsible for driver stress such as road infrastructure (e.g. roadworks, traffic lights, freeways) and driving maneuvers (e.g. merging, tail-gaiting, navigating roundabouts). Using actors in a deception study, a naturalistic driving scenario was created in a lab-based simulation. All participants (n = 10; 39 ± 14.5 years) drove the same route in a simulator and engaged with the same driving behaviours and other virtual road users on two separate occasions separated by 7 days. The difference between conditions was whether the participant interacted with other drivers who displayed: a) courteous or b) discourteous behaviours. Blood pressure, heart rate variability and salivary hormone concentrations (cortisol and alpha amylase) were measured before and immediately after each simulated drive. After interacting with the discourteous drivers, participants experienced significantly higher mean arterial blood pressure, systolic and diastolic pressure, central systolic and diastolic pressure, and heart rate, and lower heart rate variability (indicative of acute stress) compared to interacting with the courteous drivers. Conversely, these markers of stress were reduced after interacting with the courteous drivers. The results support courtesy on the road to provide short-term benefits for the recipient of the action, while also increasing road safety more generally.     

The subjective quality of episodic future thought and the experience of meaning in life

Two studies assessed whether mentally simulating specific future events to occur in familiar (vs. unfamiliar) settings indirectly increases meaning life via the subjective quality of the simulations. Participants in both studies (N = 344) were randomly assigned to visualize themselves doing something in familiar (e.g. home) or unfamiliar (e.g. fantasy world) settings in the future. They then rated the subjective quality of these visualizations and completed a measure of meaning in life. We replicated previous findings by showing that mental simulations involving familiar settings were of greater subjective quality than simulations involving unfamiliar settings. However, we also found that simulating future events in familiar (vs. unfamiliar) settings indirectly increased the perceived meaningfulness of life. These findings integrate research in cognitive psychology with research on the psychology of well-being and reveal how mental time travel contributes to the perception that one’s life has meaning.     

航空模拟舱飞行行为的EPIC理论仿真

利用计算机技术,以执行过程交互控制(EPIC)理论框架为基础,建立了一个虚拟飞行员飞行过程的计算模型,并对人在复杂任务下的作业绩效进行了仿真。结果表明：(1)该研究在原有EPIC理论基础上发展的仿真模型合理可行;(2)仿真结果和实验结果拟合良好,模型具有良好的预测能力。该研究为以仿真方法研究复杂任务的心理过程提供了一次有益的尝试。     

Is computer simulation changing the face of experimentation?

Morrison points out many similarities between the roles of simulation models and other sorts of models in science. On the basis of these similarities she claims that running a simulation is epistemologically on a par with doing a traditional experiment and that the output of a simulation therefore counts as a measurement. I agree with her premises but reject the inference. The epistemological payoff of a traditional experiment is greater (or less) confidence in the fit between a model and a target system. The source of this payoff is the existence of a causal interaction with the target system. A computer experiment, which does not go beyond the simulation system itself, lacks any such interaction. So computer experiments cannot confer any additional confidence in the fit (or lack thereof) between the simulation model and the target system.     

Researching a Local Heroin Market as a Complex Adaptive System

This project applies agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques to better understand the operation, organization, and structure of a local heroin market. The simulation detailed was developed using data from an 18-month ethnographic case study. The original research, collected in Denver, CO during the 1990s, represents the historic account of users and dealers who operated in the Larimer area heroin market. Working together, the authors studied the behaviors of customers, private dealers, street-sellers, brokers, and the police, reflecting the core elements pertaining to how the market operated. After evaluating the logical consistency between the data and agent behaviors, simulations scaled-up interactions to observe their aggregated outcomes. While the concept and findings from this study remain experimental, these methods represent a novel way in which to understand illicit drug markets and the dynamic adaptations and outcomes they generate. Extensions of this research perspective, as well as its strengths and limitations, are discussed.     

Spatial representations elicit dual-coding effects in mental imagery

Spatial aspects of words are associated with their canonical locations in the real world. Yet little research has tested whether spatial associations denoted in language comprehension generalize to their corresponding images. We directly tested the spatial aspects of mental imagery in picture and word processing (Experiment 1). We also tested whether spatial representations of motion words produce similar perceptual-interference effects as demonstrated by object words (Experiment 2). Findings revealed that words denoting an upward spatial location produced slower responses to targets appearing at the top of the display, whereas words denoting a downward spatial location produced slower responses to targets appearing at the bottom of the display. Perceptual-interference effects did not obtain for pictures or for words lacking a spatial relation. These findings provide greater empirical support for the perceptual-symbols system theory ( Barsalou, 1999, 2008 ).