True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that standard “overconfidence” findings can easily be explained by different degrees of knowledge of agents plus a random error in predictions. We contribute to the current literature and ongoing research by extensively analyzing interval estimates for knowledge questions, for real financial time series, and for artificially generated charts. We thereby suggest a new method to measure overconfidence in interval estimates, which is based on the implied probability mass behind a stated prediction interval. We document overconfidence patterns, which are difficult to reconcile with rationality of agents and which cannot be explained by differences in knowledge as differences in knowledge do not exist in our task. Furthermore, we show that overconfidence measures are reliable in the sense that there exist stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence in interval estimates, thereby testing an important assumption of behavioral economics and behavioral finance models: stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence across people. We do this in a “field experiment,” for different levels of expertise of subjects (students on the one hand and professional traders and investment bankers on the other hand), over time, by using different miscalibration metrics, and for tasks that avoid common weaknesses such as a non‐representative selection of trick questions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Duty to Support Nationalistic Policies

We demonstrate that citizens perceive a duty to support policies that benefit their nation, even when they themselves judge that the consequences of the policies will be worse on the whole, taking outsiders into account. In terms of actions, subjects think they would do their perceived duty rather than violate it for the sake of better consequences. The discrepancy between duty and judged consequences does not seem to result from self‐interest alone. When asked for reasons, many subjects felt an obligation to help their fellow citizens before others, and they also thought that they owed something to their nation, in return for what it did for them. The obligation to help fellow citizens was the strongest predictor of perceived duty. In an experiment with Israeli and Palestinian students, group membership affected both perceived overall consequences and duty, but the effect of group on perceived consequences did not account for the effect on perceived duty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Normative and Descriptive Models of Military Decisions to Deploy Precision Strike Capabilities

Precision strike capabilities represent a significant and highly controversial part of present day military operations. And yet, there is a surprising dearth of empirical research on military decision making in this domain. In this article, we therefore review different psychological perspectives on how these decisions can be made. Specifically, we compare the application of normative models of judgment and choice against the empirical research on human decision making, which suggests that people are more likely to employ heuristic strategies. We suggest that several features of decision tasks in the precision strike domain evoke the use of intuitive (heuristic) decision making whereas other features such as the sometimes unfamiliar (or novel) nature of the decision task requires analytic strategies to generate good solutions. Therefore, decisions about precision strike capabilities are best made with a mixture of intuitive and analytic thought, a mode of thinking known as quasirationality.     

Development and Initial Validation of a General Psychological Well-being Scale (GPWS) in an African Context

This study aimed to develop and validate the General Psychological Well-being Scale (GPWS) in an African sample, based on the empirical overlap between hedonic and eudaimonic facets of well-being as found in previous research. The quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted in three phases: secondary data analysis (n = 2005), pilot study (n = 296) and main study (n = 459). The pilot and main study included the GPWS as well as other psychological well-being measures for criterion-related validity. The pilot study yielded satisfactory psychometric properties. The main study yielded a high, reliable Cronbach alpha of.89 and evidence of construct validity. The GPWS appears to be a unidimensional scale suitable for research use with Setswana-speaking people.     

Emotional Intelligence and the Identity Negotiation of a Racial Minority Group in a Majority School Context

This article describes the possible impact of emotional intelligence on identity negotiation of a racial minority group in a majority school context. The study investigated the adjustment and functioning of racial minority groups in majority school contexts, as well as the identity negotiation associated with it, and determined whether there is a correlation between the former and the Emotional Intelligence (EI) of the participants. Participants were 16 black and 21 white learners attending two schools where they were in the minority (mean age = 16.23 years; SD = 1.49 years). The learners attended Grades 9–12. Data were first organised, after which themes and patterns were identified, and the data appraised and categorised (Creswell, 2007), after which a comparison was drawn between the identified categories of existing knowledge. Findings suggest that racial integration in both high schools actually occurred in name only; most participants chose to mingle within their own racial groups and the black participants in particular were exposed to racism, discrimination and prejudice on a regular basis. Despite the necessary steps taken and implemented by government in order to oppose racism in the country and promote racial integration in schools, it seems that the consequences of apartheid remain for the foreseeable future.     

Measuring resilience among homeless youth: psychometric assessment of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale in Ghana

This study validated the psychometric structure of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC; Connor & Davidson, 2003 Connor, K. M., & Davidson, J. R. T. (2003). Development of a New Resilience Scale: The Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC). Depression and Anxiety, 18, 76–82. doi: 10.1002/da.10113[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in a sample of 227 homeless youth in Ghana. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Varimax rotation was used to extract factor structures. About 62% of the total variance was accounted for by a three-factor structure: personal competence and tenacity, optimism and achievement motivation. Evidence of the external validity of scales was supported by the positive correlation between resilience and perceived social support scores. The CD-RISC appears to yield scores reliable for assessing resilience among homeless youth in a developing world context.     

Psychometric Properties of the Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSRQ) in a South African Context

Self-regulation (SR), an important construct within the psychological well-being context, involves the ability to monitor behaviour, to contrast it with reference values and to introduce adjustments where necessary. A lack of validated measures of SR in the South African context has contributed to the current caveat in our knowledge of the potential importance of this construct. This investigation aimed to establish the utility of the Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSRQ; Carey, Neal & Collins, 2004) in a South African context. This short version of the original Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SRQ; Brown, Miller & Lawendowski, 1999) was completed by a group of 385 undergraduate psychology students. Factor analysis produced 7 factors, all of which showed significant positive correlations with other measures of psychological well-being. This first step toward establishing the importance of SR in non-Western cultures reflected positively on the potential use of the SSRQ in large epidemiological studies.     

人格判断的准确性:特质特性的作用

特质特性是影响人格判断准确性的重要调节变量。已有的研究表明,可观察性高的特质容易判断,判断的准确性和一致性也更高;特质的可评估性干扰了自我知觉的准确性,与中性特质相比,可评估性特质的自我—他人一致性更低;与清晰特质相比,模糊特质的自我—同伴判断间的一致性更低,且随特质模糊性的增加而递减。不仅如此,特质特性经常与其他因素如熟悉度交互作用于人格判断的准确性,在考查特质特性的作用时,必须提高研究的生态效度,将该变量与特性匹配、特质分类、个体差异及文化差异等因素综合起来考虑。     

跨文化判断与决策(英文)

本文对判断和决策研究领域所发现的跨文化差异进行了回顾。鉴于大多数判断和决策的跨文化研究都集中于对亚洲和西方文化的比较,本文也主要关注这方面的研究发现。具体来说,本文回顾了在概率判断及信心、风险知觉、冒险行为、消费者行为以及经济判断和决策中所存在的跨文化差异。综述结果表明尽管亚洲人和西方人的判断和决策行为存在很大的跨文化差异,研究也发现了显著的文化内差异。目前关于判断和决策的跨文化差异的研究还相对匮乏,未来还需要更多的研究来进一步了解判断和决策行为的跨文化差别及机制。     

Effects on organizational context (culture and climate) from implementing a 360-degree feedback system: The case of Arcelik

The current study aims to investigate the impact of the 360-degree feedback system (DFS) on organizational context (culture and climate). This longitudinally designed study was conducted at the Arcelik Cooking Appliances Plant in Turkey with 77 white-collar workers. 360-DFS was based on relevant literature and feedback given to the employees by The Arcelik Competency Model. Results have shown that the 360-DFS has effects on organizational context (e.g., employees' perceptions regarding support and achievement culture). The results have also revealed some significant effects on the participants' perception of the communication and performance appraisal system in the organization.