Semantic coherence and fallacies in estimating joint probabilities

In three experiments on joint probability estimation, gist representations were manipulated with analogies, and the suboptimal strategy of ignoring relevant denominators was counteracted with training in using 2 × 2 tables to clarify joint probability estimates. The estimated probabilities of two events, as well as their conjunctive and disjunctive probabilities, were assessed against two benchmarks, logical fallacies and semantic coherence—a constellation of estimates consistent with the relationship among sets. Fuzzy‐trace theory (FTT) predicts that analogies will increase semantic coherence, and a table intervention affecting denominator neglect will both increase semantic coherence and reduce fallacies. In all three experiments, analogies increased semantic coherence. In both experiments training participants to use 2 × 2 tables, such tables reduced fallacies and increased semantic coherence. As the relations among sets in the problem materials progressed in cognitive complexity from identical sets, mutually exclusive sets, and subsets to overlapping sets, fallacies generally increased, and semantic coherence generally decreased. These findings indicate that denominator neglect is pervasive, but that it can be remedied with a straightforward intervention that clarifies relations among sets. Further, intuitive gist‐based probability estimation can be improved through the use of simple analogies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Terror and Collateral Damage: Are they Permissible?*

This article begins by comparing terror and death and then focuses on whether killing combatants and noncombatants as a mere means to create terror, that is in turn a means to winning a war, is ever permissible. The role of intentions and alternative acts one might have done is examined in this regard. The second part of the article begins by criticizing a standard justification for causing collateral (side effect) deaths in war and offers an alternative justification that makes use of the idea of group liability. * This article is a shortened version of my “Failures of Just War Theory: Terror, Harm, and Justice,” Ethics 114 (July 2004), pp. 650–694, with the addition of new material on the use of terror in Section 2.     

从伦理和经济的角度对医疗行为责任的立法建议

从伦理和经济的角度论述了医疗行为责任立法的必要性,阐明了该法的性质;立法的价值取向是充分保护医疗服务接受者的权利,并兼顾社会利益;提出了创建<医疗行为责任法>的具体建议.     

The development of mentalistic gaze understanding

Very young infants are sensitive to and follow other people's gaze. By 18 months children, like chimpanzees, apparently represent the spatial relationship between viewer and object viewed: they can follow eye‐direction alone, and react appropriately if the other's gaze is blocked by occluding barriers. This paper assesses when children represent this relationship as psychological in nature. Studies examining sensitivity to gaze, gaze following, and explicit judgement of gaze direction are reviewed. The evidence suggests that neither infants nor chimpanzees represent gaze as psychological. It is concluded that mentalistic gaze understanding develops from the age of 3 years. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Social Nature of Perception and Action

ABSTRACT— Humans engage in a wide range of social activities. Previous research has focused on the role of higher cognitive functions, such as mentalizing (the ability to infer others' mental states) and language processing, in social exchange. This article reviews recent studies on action perception and joint action suggesting that basic perception–action links are crucial for many social interactions. Mapping perceived actions to one's own action repertoire enables direct understanding of others' actions and supports action identification. Joint action relies on shared action representations and involves modeling of others' performance in relation to one's own. Taking the social nature of perception and action seriously not only contributes to the understanding of dedicated social processes but has the potential to create a new perspective on the individual mind and brain.     

计算机化多维测验中作答时间和作答精度数据的联合分析

随着心理与教育测量研究的发展和科技的进步,计算机化(大规模)测验逐渐受到人们的关注。为探究在计算机化多维测验中如何利用作答时间数据来辅助评估多维潜在能力,以及为我国义务教育阶段教育质量监测提供数据分析方法上的理论支持。本研究以2012年和2015年国际学生能力评估(PISA)计算机化数学测验数据为例,提出了一种可同时利用作答时间和作答精度数据的联合作答与时间的多维Rasch模型。根据新模型对PISA数据的分析结果,表明引入作答时间数据,不仅有助于提高模型参数的估计精度,还有助于数据分析者利用被试的作答时间信息来做进一步的决策和干预(e.g., 对异常作答行为或预备知识的诊断)。     

学龄前孤独谱系障碍儿童汉语核心语法的习得

学龄前孤独谱系障碍(Autism Spectrum Disorders; ASD)儿童对语言的习得程度是决定ASD儿童早期科学干预效果和最终预后水平的关键。以往ASD儿童语言研究多局限于英语ASD儿童, 较少有研究探讨不同语种ASD儿童语言习得的普遍机制。本研究拟结合汉语独特的语法属性, 通过多通道优先注视范式眼动实验考察2~5岁ASD儿童汉语核心语法的理解程度, 通过共同注意游戏评估ASD儿童的社会交流能力, 同时分析ASD儿童语言环境中相关语法结构的输入频率。研究旨在通过探讨学龄前ASD儿童的语法习得, 进一步探索人类语言习得的深层机制, 包括探索人类特有的语言机能对包括ASD儿童语言习得在内的人类语言习得的作用, 同时考察社会交流障碍与语言环境对人类语言习得过程的影响。     

When does a referent public problem affect financial and political support for public action?

In three studies we examined the willingness to support action to remedy a public problem. In Study 1 and Study 2, people were asked whether they would financially contribute to solution of a public problem. In Study 3, people were asked whether they would sign a petition to support a public action. The aim was to test whether the willingness to support solution of a public problem is affected by the type of problem that is used as the referent. We hypothesized that the willingness to support a public action is lower when evaluated in the context of a high‐ as opposed to a low‐importance referent problem (importance contrast effect). We also hypothesized that the importance contrast effect is tied to the perceived relatedness between the target and referent problems. The importance contrast effect should be found only when the two problems relate to different category domains. The findings bear out this prediction. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiple options in the past and the present: The impact on inaction inertia

Inaction inertia is the effect that people do not act on an attractive opportunity only because they previously missed a more attractive opportunity. We investigated the effect of the presence of alternative options on the occurrence of this effect. We hypothesized and found that the likelihood to act on a current opportunity increases when evaluated in the context of another current option compared to when it is presented separately (Experiments 1 and 2). Likelihood of action decreases when the missed opportunity is presented next to another missed opportunity (Experiment 3). We conclude that when multiple options are currently present, the impact of the missed opportunity as a point of reference decreases, and that when multiple options are missed, the impact of these missed opportunities as a point of reference increases. These results are discussed in light of the literatures about inaction inertia and multiple options. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.