Blindsided? September 11 and the Origins of Strategic Surprise

The devastating terror attacks of 11 September 2001 have often been characterized as a "bolt from the blue." Drawing inspiration from the political psychological literature on strategic surprise, this article poses the deceptively simple question of why so many U.S. policymakers were caught so woefully off guard last year. Through a preliminary empirical exploration of three broad explanatory "cuts" derived from the relevant interdisciplinary literature—psychological, bureau–organizational, and agenda–political—the authors seek to shed light on the sources of failure that may have contributed to 9/11 and point to promising avenues of investigation for future research as the available empirical record becomes more complete.     

Compromised item detection: A Bayesian change-point perspective

Psychometric methods for accurate and timely detection of item compromise have been a long-standing topic. While Bayesian methods can incorporate prior knowledge or expert inputs as additional information for item compromise detection, they have not been employed in item compromise detection itself. The current study proposes a two-phase Bayesian change-point framework for both stationary and real-time detection of changes in each item's compromise status. In Phase I, a stationary Bayesian change-point model for compromise detection is fitted to the observed responses over a specified time-frame. The model produces parameter estimates for the change-point of each item from uncompromised to compromised, as well as structural parameters accounting for the post-change response distribution. Using the post-change model identified in Phase I, the Shiryaev procedure for sequential testing is employed in Phase II for real-time monitoring of item compromise. The proposed methods are evaluated in terms of parameter recovery, detection accuracy, and detection efficiency under various simulation conditions and in a real data example. The proposed method also showed superior detection accuracy and efficiency compared to the cumulative sum procedure.     

Racial reckoning,resistance, and the revolution: A call to community psychology to move forward

This article introduces a special issue of the American Journal of Community Psychology that features racial reckoning, resistance and the revolution in the context of a syndemic, the historical subjugation of communities of Color (COC) to racial hierarchies and the coronavirus (COVID-19). More specifically, this special issue underscores the need for community psychology and other allied disciplines to address this syndemic facing COC. The special issue delivers on the stories of the lived experiences from researchers and community members as it relates to COVID-19 and COC. Twelve articles are illuminated to challenge the field to create social change.     

社会文化因素对心理健康问题的影响

该文力图从人生命的生成性及其表现形式即社会文化视域研究心理健康问题,把心理健康问题看成是个体实现自身生命本质、占有人的本质力量的现实而必要的环节。人的生命的生成性决定了心理健康问题的社会文化性。一般从广义的角度说,社会文化是人特有的生命活动的全部过程和结果。不同的社会文化对心理健康问题的界定不同,形成心理健康问题的规则不同,解决心理健康问题的方式亦不同。     

选购两难中折衷效应的发生规律

当人们置身于两难困境时,折衷策略是一个合理的解决方案。研究者分析选购两难中消费者的信息处理与折衷效应的关系。研究发现：选购两难中信息的低精致化处理更易导致折衷效应,产品涉入贡献于精致化处理从而抑制折衷效应,产品的认知相似性和情感抑制精致化处理从而促进折衷效应。研究结果表明,当消费者面对选购两难时,信息的精致化程度和心理水平影响他对于中性产品的选择。     

More Than Weighting Cognitive Importance: A Dual-Process Model of Issue Framing Effects

Issue frames in policy discourse and news reporting regularly influence citizens' political opinions. Yet, we only have a limited understanding of how and among whom these framing effects occur. I propose a dual-process model of issue framing effects arguing that we must understand mediators of framing (the how question) in connection with individual-level moderators of framing (the whom question). Experimental results show that issue framing affects opinion through different psychological processes depending on who the receiver of the frame is. Among the moderately politically aware or those having weak political values, framing effects were mediated through processes of changing importance of considerations as well as changing content of considerations. Among the highly aware, only the importance change process mediated framing effects, while there were no framing effects among those least aware or those having strong values.     

Balance Theory Revisited: Relationship Issue Relevance Affects Imbalance-Induced Tension in Workplace Relationships

The present work applies and extends balance theory by examining the role of relevance of issue to the relationship in balance theory processes within the context of workplace relationships. In Experiment 1, a sample of working adults (N = 81) reported greater job tension when self-supervisor dissimilarity involved a relationship-relevant (vs. non-relationship) ethical dilemma. In Experiment 2, a sample of working students (N = 185) who perceived greater self-supervisor dissimilarity about workplace (vs. family) ethics reported greater job tension, and in turn, less job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Perceiving dissimilarity with a work supervisor in attitudes about relationship-relevant issues may negatively affect outcomes at work. Importantly, these experiments demonstrated that not all dissimilarity is likely to yield negative outcomes; only relationship-relevant (vs. non-relevant) dissimilarity was a catalyst for imbalance-induced tension.     

Initial perceptions in negotiations: evaluation and response to ‘logrolling’ offers

In negotiations, where several issues are under consideration and parties have different priorities among these issues, integrative agreements can be reached through ‘logrolling’: concessions on low priority issues in exchange for gains on higher priority issues. The present research focuses on the potential role of initial offers in the development of integrative agreements. We show first, that in a simulated competitive market the specific composition of initial offers influences the final agreements, beyond the effect predicted by their overall value. In order to obtain some insight into the judgmental processes that might play a role, we explore the way in which inexperienced negotiators presented with a hypothetical negotiation context evaluate and respond to logrolling versus distributive initial offers. Three hypotheses were tested: logrolling offers convey an implicit message of cooperation, logrolling offers promote understanding of the mutual interest structure of the task, and, finally, logrolling offers establish within‐issue anchors. Results do not support the first two hypotheses: logrolling offers were not necessarily judged more attractive than distributive ones, and they did not seem to affect the deeply rooted fixed‐pie assumption. However, initial offers did establish within‐issue anchors: counter‐offers were affected by the specific composition of the initial offers beyond the effect of their overall value. This anchoring process resulted in logrolling offers yielding a higher profit for their initiator, as well as higher combined profits for both parties. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.