模态系统的推理规则的强弱虚实

模态系统的推理规则可以用强弱虚实这四种性质进行分类。在一个系统中这几种性质无论在语形上还是语义上都有一定的联系和区别,有些性质在一个系统的变种或扩充中并不一定保持。     

Alternatives to Randomized Experiments

ABSTRACT— Randomized experiments are preferred for making inferences about causality when they can be implemented and their assumptions are met. Yet assumptions can fail (e.g., attrition, treatment noncompliance) or randomization may be unethical or infeasible. I describe alternative design and statistical approaches that permit testing causal hypotheses and present current empirical evidence related to alternative designs. Alternative designs permit a wider range of research questions to be answered and permit more direct generalization of causal effects; however, when using such designs, estimates of the magnitude of the causal effect may be more uncertain.     

Two-year-olds exclude novel objects as potential referents of novel words based on pragmatics

Many studies have established that children tend to exclude objects for which they already have a name as potential referents of novel words. In the current study we asked whether this exclusion can be triggered by social-pragmatic context alone without pre-existing words as blockers. Two-year-old children watched an adult looking at a novel object while saying a novel word with excitement. In one condition the adult had not seen the object beforehand, and so the children interpreted the adult’s utterance as referring to the gazed-at object. In another condition the adult and child had previously played jointly with the gazed-at object. In this case, children less often assumed that the adult was referring to the object but rather they searched for an alternative referent - presumably because they inferred that the gazed-at object was old news in their common ground with the adult and so not worthy of excited labeling. Since this inference based on exclusion is highly similar to that underlying the Principle of Contrast/Mutual Exclusivity, we propose that this principle is not purely lexical but rather is based on children’s understanding of how and why people direct one another’s attention to things either with or without language.     

Culture and visual perception: Does perceptual inference depend on culture?1,2

Abstract: Some perceptual cues carry information about the overall pattern of an object (holistic cues), whereas others carry information about the distinct parts of an object (part cues). Drawing on recent work on culture and cognition, the authors predicted that people with European‐American cultural backgrounds would be more capable of using part cues in perceptual inference than those with Asian backgrounds. No such cross‐cultural difference was expected for the ability to use holistic cues. In two studies, participants were presented with either one of the two types of cues and asked to infer the identity of the original objects. As predicted, in the part‐cue condition European‐American participants performed better than did Japanese (Study 1) and Asian‐American participants (Study 2). Also as predicted, there was no cultural difference in the holistic‐cue condition. The results were interpreted with reference to other related studies documenting reliable cross‐cultural differences in cognition.     

儿童行为与心理水平的特质推理的发展

选取4岁组、5岁组、7岁组、10岁组、12岁组儿童和成人共192名(各年龄组32名, 男女各半)为被试, 采用个别测查法考察学前和小学儿童行为与心理水平的特质推理发展。结果表明: (1)4岁时儿童已能进行行为水平的特质推理, 5岁时才能进行心理水平的特质推理, 即使用特质引发规则进行特质推理, 10岁时两者均达到成人水平。(2)4岁、5岁时儿童心理水平的特质推理显著落后于行为水平的特质推理, 至少7岁时两者处于同一水平上。(3)儿童使用概念相似规则而不是情境匹配规则进行行为预测。(4)4岁儿童不使用简单效价规则进行行为预测, 5岁及以上儿童使用简单效价规则, 但他们是在区分同一特质范畴和不同特质范畴的基础上、在较低的确定程度上使用该规则。     

过度自信的研究展望

过度自信是个体高估自身判断精确度的一种认知偏差。过高估计和过高定位作为过度自信的两种主要类型被认为是个体在评价其绝对能力和相对能力时的表现。一般认为信息加工的偏差与判断误差的无偏性是造成过高估计的主要原因。自我提升动机、权重差异与信息的差异被认为是产生过高定位的原因。但是过度自信的这两种类型却在不同难度的任务巾出现了分离现象。最近,研究者提出了贝叶斯过度自信,用贝叶斯推理对不同任务中二者的分离进行了整合。过度自信产生的原因和内在心理机制、过度自信对决策的影响以及过度自信中的个体差异研究将会成为该领域日后研究的趋势。     

语言理解中的预设加工

预设是指以交际双方的共同背景(共享的知识或信念)为前提的、听话者根据特定语言标记(触发标记)及其限定的对象(计算内容)而推理出的非外显意义。例如,“张明又触发标记发表了论文计算内容”引发了“张明之前发表过论文”的预设推论。理解者依赖触发标记通达交际双方的共同背景,并在计算内容上生成完整的预设;随后,理解者连接生成的预设和共同背景,更新两者之间的关系。触发标记范畴、共同背景与预设的关联度、共同背景类型,以及理解者的参与动机会影响不同阶段的预设加工。未来研究可以从三个角度进一步探讨预设加工的认知基础：(1)采用计算建模的方法,量化交际互动中听话者理解预设的过程(如观点采择);(2)采用脑成像技术,揭示预设加工过程的神经基础;(3)以特殊人群为研究对象,检验和修正预设加工的认知模型。     

用“逻辑陷阱”实现测谎功能的方法和数学证明

在心理测验过程中,有些受试者往往会说谎,作假答案,导致测验结果失真。本文使用逻辑推理的理论,探讨了在测验量表中设置“逻辑陷阱”来捕捉说谎者的方法。详细论述“逻辑陷阱”的测谎原理、设计方法。并给出具体推理过程的数学描述和证明。     

Evidence and inference in educational assessment

Educational assessment concerns inference about students' knowledge, skills, and accomplishments. Because data are never so comprehensive and unequivocal as to ensure certitude, test theory evolved in part to address questions of weight, coverage, and import of data. The resulting concepts and techniques can be viewed as applications of more general principles for inference in the presence of uncertainty. Issues of evidence and inference in educational assessment are discussed from this perspective.Probability isn't really about numbers; it's about the structure of reasoning.Presidential address to the Psychometric Society, presented June 25, 1994, in Champaign, Illinois.Supported by (1) Contract No. N00014-91-J-4101, R&T 4421573-01, from the Cognitive Science Program, Cognitive and Neural Sciences Division, Office of Naval Research, (2) the National Center for Research on Evaluation, Standards, Student Testing (CRESST), Educational Research and Development Program, cooperative agreement number R117G10027 and CFDA catalog number 84.117G, as administered by the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U.S. Department of Education, and (3) the Statistical and Psychometric Research Division of Educational Testing Service. I am grateful for comments and suggestions from Henry Braun, Drew Gitomer, Richard Patz, Jonathan Troper, and Howard Wainer.