医改的逻辑与利益集团的阳光博弈——兼谈美国医疗保障制度演进中的博弈规则

医疗体制改革本质上是社会公共财富的再分配,伦理上涉及社会公正与正义,经济与管理上涉及各个阶层、利益集团的逐利博弈和理性之间的平衡张力。通过对美国20世纪60年代以来医疗保障立法过程中各个利益集团的交锋和妥协,尤其是代表美国医师利益的美国医学会在历次医疗保障立法程序中的诉求,揭示医疗制度改革的社会化流程,方案的精心设计是最重要的,当要取得社会共识,必须开放利益集团的"公堂博弈""舆论争锋"的空间,以便为后续实施提供良好的社会心理的土壤。     

Covenants and reputations

In their classic analyses, Hobbes and Hume argue that offensively violating a covenant is irrational because the offense ruins one’s reputation. This paper explores conditions under which reputation alone can enforce covenants. The members of a community are modeled as interacting in a Covenant Game repeated over time. Folk theorems are presented that give conditions under which the Humean strategy of performing in covenants only with those who have never offensively violated or performed with an offensive violator characterizes an equilibrium of the repeated Covenant Game. These folk theorems establish that for certain ideal settings Hobbes’ and Hume’s arguments against offensively violating covenants are compelling. However, these ideal settings presuppose that the community has certain mechanisms that generate common knowledge of the identities of those with whom one should perform. I analyze the results of computer simulations of the interactions in a community whose members must rely upon private communication alone. The computer simulation data show that in this community, reputation effects cannot effectively deter members from offensively violating covenants. I conclude that Hobbes’ and Hume’s warnings against offensive violation are compelling only on condition that the community is sufficiently structured to generate common knowledge among its members. I also conclude that even in such structured communities, the Humean strategy is not the uniquely “correct” policy.     

父亲严厉教养与父亲及儿童心理行为特点的关系：父亲与儿童类似性判断的调节作用

本研究分别调查了338名中国父母的严厉教养、抑郁情感与婚姻满意度及其独生子女的情感失调与攻击行为情况。研究结果显示父亲对儿童与自己的类似性判断减弱了父亲严厉教养与儿童的情感失调和攻击行为间的联系,但加强了父亲的严厉教养与抑郁和婚姻不满意度间的关系。这些发现支持了父母教养的进化观点,降低父亲的生殖疑虑可能具有进化适应性,父亲与儿童的类似性判断会提高父亲对儿童的投资     

An experimental test of a game‐theoretical model of reciprocity

In this contribution the norm of reciprocity is defined as a basic internal motivation. Using formal tools of game theory, a model of social utility function is presented. The reciprocity model predicts that social actors should reciprocate costs and benefits they receive, even when there are costs in conforming to the norm. Hypotheses about actors' behavior, expectations and evaluations are derived from the model. The hypotheses were tested in an experimental situation, the reciprocity game, consisting of a prisoner's dilemma game (PD) followed by a dictator game (DG). The sample was composed of 74 Italian undergraduate students. In line with the model's predictions, the experimental results showed that participants reciprocate the behavior of the opponent in the PD. In the DG, if the opponent cooperated, participants gave back an almost equal share, whereas if the opponent defected, participants gave a minimal amount. These reciprocity effects are modulated by individual differences in the concern for reciprocity. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Targets and tactics: The analysis of moment-to-moment decision making in animal combat

Even though injury and death are more common consequences of fighting among animals than once believed, they are still relatively infrequent. Modern evolutionary models of animal combat have emphasized that given the threat of retaliation, animals only escalate to more injurious fighting if the benefits outweigh the costs, and then only if threat and bluff fail to achieve the goal. Such models stress the role of communication as to whether animals decide to escalate or not. An alternative view is that failure to produce injury or death arises from the neutralization of one animal's attack by another's defense. That is, attack and defense end in a stalemate that may be misinterpreted by outside observers as an absence of injury producing behavior. As attack typically involves the biting or striking of specific body targets, movements and postures occurring during combat need to be analyzed with respect to their role in gaining or averting such contact. For example, in the combat of muroid rodents the attacker targets the lower dorsum and flanks (low threshold) or face (high threshold), whereas a defender may defensively launch counterstrikes against the attacker's face. Two combat tactics (supine defense and lateral attack) typically present in the fighting of muroid rodents are analyzed in detail to illustrate how targets constrain the movements of combatants. Such a functional analysis of combat assumes that the movements and postures performed are related to their role in the attack and defense of targets. Deviations from such a strict functional interpretation reveal some of the other factors that may constrain the combatants' behavior. For example, body morphology and the aggressiveness of the opponent are shown to be important in deciding the type of combat tactic to use and how it is performed. Finally, movements and postures that are neutral or even counterproductive for attack and defense may be revealed as communicatory. This approach provides a means of analyzing behavior during the "heat of combat" that is typically not dealt with in traditional evolutionary models. Aggr. Behav. 23:107–129, 1997.© 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

父子(女)间面孔相似性的进化适应机制及其影响

由于受精和孕育过程发生在母亲体内, 人类受孕具有一定的隐蔽性, 同时人类早期社会存在着通奸行为, 因而, 父亲面临着父亲身份不确定性的风险。为了应对这种风险, 人类男性在生活中往往会寻求一些能表征父亲身份的线索, 其中亲子间面孔相似性被证明是辨别个体间是否存在基因关联(或血缘关系)的有效线索之一。morph软件合成、第三方评定以及当事人的主观评定是研究亲子间面孔相似性的三种基本范式。以往的研究表明当父子(女)间面孔相似性越高时, 父亲对子女的亲子投资水平越高, 父亲感知到的焦虑水平越低, 父亲的身体也越健康, 与此同时, 当父子(女)间面孔相似性越高时, 父亲对女儿会表现出更高的性厌恶水平。未来的研究可以进一步关注文化因素在该效应中的调节作用, 探寻新的研究范式以提高研究的内部效度和外部效度, 以及探讨影响亲子间面孔相似性感知的因素。     

公平偏好的电生理测量：来自脑电、皮肤电和心电的证据

研究发现,人们普遍具有追求公平的偏好,即人们在追求个人收益时也会关注收益分配的公平性。随着电生理技术的发展,越来越多的研究者采用电生理技术对公平偏好进行深入探讨。本研究从脑电、皮肤电、心电等方面梳理公平偏好的电生理机制。脑电的研究发现,公平偏好相关的脑电主要涉及反馈相关负波和P300;皮肤电的研究发现,相比于公平分配,个体在不公平分配情况下其皮肤电的激活水平更高;心率的研究发现,相比于公平分配,个体遭遇不公平分配时其心率降低。研究公平偏好电生理机制有助于更深入地揭示公平偏好的产生根源与形成过程。未来可从公平偏好电生理的整合研究、公平偏好的脑成像与电生理的整合性探索,以及拓展公平偏好电生理的外部效度和研究范式等方面展开进一步探究。     

Moral Obstinacy in Political Negotiations

Research in behavioral economics finds that moral considerations bear on the offers that people make and accept in negotiations. This finding is relevant for political negotiations, wherein moral concerns are manifold. However, behavioral economics has yet to incorporate a major theme from moral psychology: People differ, sometimes immensely, in which issues they perceive to be a matter of morality. We review research about the measurement and characteristics of moral convictions. We hypothesize that moral conviction leads to uncompromising bargaining strategies and failed negotiations. We test this theory in three incentivized experiments in which participants bargain over political policies with real payoffs at stake. We find that participants' moral convictions are linked with aggressive bargaining strategies, which helps explain why it is harder to forge bargains on some political issues than others. We also find substantial asymmetries between liberals and conservatives in the intensity of their moral convictions about different issues.     

Financial product sensitivity predicts financial health

Recent research has aimed to understand how people consider financial decisions because they have important consequences for well-being. Yet existing research has largely failed to examine how attitudes and behaviors vary as a function of the specific financial product (e.g., debt type). We ask to what extent people differentiate between similarly categorized financial products (e.g., debt or investment) as a function of their terms (e.g., interest costs and expected returns) and whether such differentiation predicts financial health. Across four studies, we find not only that there are individual differences in attitudes toward similar financial products (e.g., two distinct loans), but also that the extent to which a consumer is averse to high-cost versus low-cost products predicts financial health. This relationship cannot be fully explained by financial literacy, numeracy, or intertemporal discounting. In addition, nudging people toward differentiating between financial products promotes decisions that are aligned with financial health.     

神经质人格与MMORPG游戏成瘾的关系:链式中介效应分析

采用方便抽样法,通过问卷测量了山西省太原市某高校268名大学生,探讨神经质人格与MMORPG游戏成瘾的关系,同时考察叙事传输和化身认同在其中的中介作用。结果发现：（1）神经质人格可以显著预测叙事传输和MMORPG游戏成瘾。（2）叙事传输在神经质人格与MMORPG游戏成瘾之间起部分中介作用。（3）叙事传输和化身认同在神经质人格与MMORPG游戏成瘾之间起链式中介作用。研究结果表明高神经质人群的确存在较高的网络游戏成瘾风险,且叙事传输和化身认同在其中起重要作用。