One-year prediction of cognitive decline following cognitive-stimulation from real-world data

Clinical evidence based on real-world data (RWD) is accumulating exponentially providing larger sample sizes available, which demand novel methods to deal with the enhanced heterogeneity of the data. Here, we used RWD to assess the prediction of cognitive decline in a large heterogeneous sample of participants being enrolled with cognitive stimulation, a phenomenon that is of great interest to clinicians but that is riddled with difficulties and limitations. More precisely, from a multitude of neuropsychological Training Materials (TMs), we asked whether was possible to accurately predict an individual's cognitive decline one year after being tested. In particular, we performed longitudinal modelling of the scores obtained from 215 different tests, grouped into 29 cognitive domains, a total of 124,610 instances from 7902 participants (40% male, 46% female, 14% not indicated), each performing an average of 16 tests. Employing a machine learning approach based on ROC analysis and cross-validation techniques to overcome overfitting, we show that different TMs belonging to several cognitive domains can accurately predict cognitive decline, while other domains perform poorly, suggesting that the ability to predict decline one year later is not specific to any particular domain, but is rather widely distributed across domains. Moreover, when addressing the same problem between individuals with a common diagnosed label, we found that some domains had more accurate classification for conditions such as Parkinson's disease and Down syndrome, whereas they are less accurate for Alzheimer's disease or multiple sclerosis. Future research should combine similar approaches to ours with standard neuropsychological measurements to enhance interpretability and the possibility of generalizing across different cohorts.     

Multilevel SEM with random slopes in discrete data using the pairwise maximum likelihood

Pairwise maximum likelihood (PML) estimation is a promising method for multilevel models with discrete responses. Multilevel models take into account that units within a cluster tend to be more alike than units from different clusters. The pairwise likelihood is then obtained as the product of bivariate likelihoods for all within-cluster pairs of units and items. In this study, we investigate the PML estimation method with computationally intensive multilevel random intercept and random slope structural equation models (SEM) in discrete data. In pursuing this, we first reconsidered the general ‘wide format’ (WF) approach for SEM models and then extend the WF approach with random slopes. In a small simulation study we the determine accuracy and efficiency of the PML estimation method by varying the sample size (250, 500, 1000, 2000), response scales (two-point, four-point), and data-generating model (mediation model with three random slopes, factor model with one and two random slopes). Overall, results show that the PML estimation method is capable of estimating computationally intensive random intercept and random slopes multilevel models in the SEM framework with discrete data and many (six or more) latent variables with satisfactory accuracy and efficiency. However, the condition with 250 clusters combined with a two-point response scale shows more bias.     

A sequential exploratory diagnostic model using a Pólya-gamma data augmentation strategy

Cognitive diagnostic models provide a framework for classifying individuals into latent proficiency classes, also known as attribute profiles. Recent research has examined the implementation of a Pólya-gamma data augmentation strategy binary response model using logistic item response functions within a Bayesian Gibbs sampling procedure. In this paper, we propose a sequential exploratory diagnostic model for ordinal response data using a logit-link parameterization at the category level and extend the Pólya-gamma data augmentation strategy to ordinal response processes. A Gibbs sampling procedure is presented for efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. We provide results from a Monte Carlo study for model performance and present an application of the model.     

Subtask analysis of process data through a predictive model

Response process data collected from human–computer interactive items contain detailed information about respondents' behavioural patterns and cognitive processes. Such data are valuable sources for analysing respondents' problem-solving strategies. However, the irregular data format and the complex structure make standard statistical tools difficult to apply. This article develops a computationally efficient method for exploratory analysis of such process data. The new approach segments a lengthy individual process into a sequence of short subprocesses to achieve complexity reduction, easy clustering and meaningful interpretation. Each subprocess is considered a subtask. The segmentation is based on sequential action predictability using a parsimonious predictive model combined with the Shannon entropy. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the new method. We use a case study of PIAAC 2012 to demonstrate how exploratory analysis for process data can be carried out with the new approach.     

概化理论方差分量估计的跨分布分析

方差分量估计是进行概化理论分析的关键。采用MonteCarlo模拟技术,探讨心理与教育测量数据分布对概化理论各种方法估计方差分量的影响。数据分布包括正态、二项和多项分布,估计方法包括Traditional、Jackknife、Bootstrap和MCMC方法。结果表明:(1)Traditional方法估计正态分布和多项分布数据的方差分量相对较好,估计二项分布数据需要校正,Jackknife方法准确地估计了三种分布数据的方差分量,校正的Bootstrap方法和有先验信息的MCMC方法(MCMCinf)估计三种分布数据的方差分量结果较好;(2)心理与教育测量数据分布对四种方法估计概化理论方差分量有影响,数据分布制约着各种方差分量估计方法性能的发挥,需要加以区分地使用。     

Imitative violence in the real world: A reanalysis of homicide rates following championship prize fights

Recently, Phillips [Am Soc Rev, 1983; 48:560–568] reported that the homicide rate increases on the third day after heavyweight championship prize fights. The present paper reports a reanalysis of Phillips's data using more sophisticated statistical techniques and examining several theoretically important variables not discussed by Phillips or his critics. Using a conservative analysis strategy, our results suggest that the increases in homicides reported by Phillips were not a methodological artifact as suggested by Baron and Reiss [Am Soc Rev 1985; 50:347–363, 372–376]. The homicide increases only occur on the first weekend or holiday after prize fights that receive the greatest publicity.     

Bayesian factor analysis for multilevel binary observations

Multilevel covariance structure models have become increasingly popular in the psychometric literature in the past few years to account for population heterogeneity and complex study designs. We develop practical simulation based procedures for Bayesian inference of multilevel binary factor analysis models. We illustrate how Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures such as Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings methods can be used to perform Bayesian inference, model checking and model comparison without the need for multidimensional numerical integration. We illustrate the proposed estimation methods using three simulation studies and an application involving student's achievement results in different areas of mathematics. The authors thank Ian Westbury, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign for kindly providing the SIMS data for the application.     

Bayesian analysis of order-statistics models for ranking data

In this paper, a class of probability models for ranking data, the order-statistics models, is investigated. We extend the usual normal order-statistics model into one where the underlying random variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampling technique are used for parameter estimation. In addition, methods to assess the adequacy of model fit are introduced. Robustness of the model is studied by considering a multivariate-t distribution. The proposed method is applied to analyze the presidential election data of the American Psychological Association (APA).The author is grateful to K. Lam, K.F. Lam, the Editor, an associate editor, and three reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions. This research was substantially supported by the CRCG grant 335/017/0015 of the University of Hong Kong and a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. HKU 7169/98H). Upon completion of this paper, I became aware that similar work had been done independently by K.G. Yao and U. Böckenholt (1999).     

A Classification Framework using a Diverse Intensified Strawberry Optimized Neural Network (DISON) for Clinical Decision-making

A novel classification framework for clinical decision making that uses an Extremely Randomized Tree (ERT) based feature selection and a Diverse Intensified Strawberry Optimized Neural network (DISON) is proposed. DISON is a Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network where the optimization of weights and bias is done using a two phase training strategy. Two algorithms namely Strawberry Plant Optimization (SPO) algorithm and Gradient-descent Back-propagation algorithm are used sequentially to identify the optimum weights and bias. The novel two phase training method and the stochastic duplicate-elimination strategy of SPO helps in addressing the issue of local optima associated with conventional neural networks. The relevant attributes are selected based on the feature importance values computed using an ERT classifier.Vertebral Column, Pima Indian diabetes (PID), Cleveland Heart disease (CHD) and Statlog Heart disease (SHD) datasets from the University of California Irvine machine learning repository are used for experimentation. The framework has achieved an accuracy of 87.17% for Vertebral Column, 90.92% for PID, 93.67% for CHD and 94.5% for SHD. The classifier performance has been compared with existing works and is found to be competitive in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Wilcoxon test confirms the statistical superiority of the proposed method.