建构反应题中能力估计准确性的影响因素:评分者人数和项目个数的交互作用

采用康春花、孙小坚和曾平飞(2016)提出的等级反应多水平侧面模型探讨了评分者人数和项目个数对被试能力估计准确性的影响。模拟研究的结果表明:(1)随着项目个数的增加,估计值与真值之间的相关也不断增加;(2)评分者人数和项目个数在平均绝对偏差(MAB)和误差均方根(RMSE)上的主效应均显著,两者间的交互效应也显著;(3)简单效应分析发现,当项目较少时,3个评分者条件下的能力估计准确性最好; 随着项目个数的增加,4个评分者的估计误差迅速下降,且表现变为最好。     

Two-Stage maximum likelihood estimation in the misspecified restricted latent class model

The maximum likelihood classification rule is a standard method to classify examinee attribute profiles in cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs). Its asymptotic behaviour is well understood when the model is assumed to be correct, but has not been explored in the case of misspecified latent class models. This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviour of a two-stage maximum likelihood classifier under a misspecified CDM. The analysis is conducted in a general restricted latent class model framework addressing all types of CDMs. Sufficient conditions are proposed under which a consistent classification can be obtained by using a misspecified model. Discussions are also provided on the inconsistency of classification under certain model misspecification scenarios. Simulation studies and a real data application are conducted to illustrate these results. Our findings can provide some guidelines as to when a misspecified simple model or a general model can be used to provide a good classification result.     

Subjective,physiological, and behavioural responses towards evaluatively conditioned stimuli

Evaluative Conditioning (EC) is commonly defined as the change in liking of a stimulus (conditioned stimulus, CS) due to its pairings with an affective unconditioned stimulus (US). In Experiment 1, we investigated effects of repeated stimulus pairings on affective responses, i.e. valence and arousal ratings, pupil size, and duration estimation. After repeatedly pairing the CSs with affective USs, a consistent pattern of affective responses emerged: The CS_negative was rated as being more negative and more arousing, resulted in larger pupils, and was temporally overestimated compared to the CS_neutral. In Experiment 2, the influence of a mere instruction about the contingency between a CS and US on affective responses was examined. After mere instruction about upcoming pairings between the CS and US, subjective ratings also changed, but there was neither evidence for differential pupillary responses nor for differential temporal processing. The results indicate that EC via pairings or instructions can change the affective responses towards formerly neutral stimuli and introduce pupil size as a physiological measure in EC research. However, Experiment 2 suggests that there might be moderating factors based on the type of EC procedure involved.     

Integrating Covariates into Social Relations Models: A Plausible Values Approach for Handling Measurement Error in Perceiver and Target Effects

The Social Relations Model (SRM) is a conceptual and analytical approach to examining dyadic behaviors and interpersonal perceptions within groups. In an SRM, the perceiver effect describes a person's tendency to perceive other group members in a certain way, whereas the target effect measures the tendency to be perceived by others in certain ways. In SRM research, it is often of interest to relate these individual SRM effects to covariates. However, the estimated individual SRM effects might not provide a very reliable measure of the true, unobserved SRM effects, resulting in distorted estimates of associations with other variables. This article introduces a plausible values approach that allows users to correct for measurement error when assessing the association of individual SRM effects with other individual difference variables. In the plausible values approach, the latent, true individual SRM effects are treated as missing values and are imputed from an imputation model by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. In a simulation study, the statistical properties of the plausible values approach are compared with two approaches that have been used in previous research. A data example from educational psychology is presented to illustrate how the plausible values approach can be implemented with the software WinBUGS.     

Reducing the Negative Effect of the Retention Interval on the Composite Face Recognition

Our memories are quite fragile. We sometimes recognize something unseen as something seen before. This error often causes serious problems, such as the misidentification of composite faces in a criminal investigation. In such a scene, people occasionally claim to have seen a face that is actually a composite face consisting of facial parts separately seen before; this error is called the memory conjunction error. Although the likelihood of the memory conjunction error increases over time, previous studies suggest that it could be suppressed by the number of response options, which are expected to affect the criterion for the “Old” response. Our results show that the presence of three response options reduced the memory conjunction error. Additionally, providing information about the existence of composite faces affected the sensitivity for detecting old faces, whereas three response options affected the criterion. This study might contribute to the improvement of procedures for eyewitness testimony.     

延迟间隔和提取条件对短时错误记忆的影响

采用短时DRM迫选任务,探讨提取条件和延迟间隔对短时错误记忆的影响,以进一步考察短时错误记忆的产生机制。结果发现,短时错误记忆的产生主要源于提取时对存贮细节通达的缺失。在无有效提取线索的条件下,延迟间隔能够增加错误记忆率;而有效提取线索存在时,真实记忆痕迹的可通达性增加能够极大避免错误记忆的产生,延迟间隔的作用则不显著。该实验的结果是对错误记忆理论解释的一种补充。     

The estimation of vehicle speed and stopping distance by pedestrians crossing streets in a naturalistic traffic environment

The ability to estimate vehicle speed and stopping distance accurately is important for pedestrians to make safe road crossing decisions. In this study, a field experiment in a naturalistic traffic environment was conducted to measure pedestrians’ estimation of vehicle speed and stopping distance when they are crossing streets. Forty-four participants (18–45 years old) reported their estimation on 1043 vehicles, and the corresponding actual vehicle speed and stopping distance were recorded. In the speed estimation task, pedestrians’ performances change in different actual speed levels and different weather conditions. In sunny conditions, pedestrians tended to underestimate actual vehicle speeds that were higher than 40 km/h but were able to accurately estimate speeds that were lower than 40 km/h. In rainy conditions, pedestrians tended to underestimate actual vehicle speeds that were higher than 45 km/h but were able to accurately estimate speeds ranging from 35 km/h to 45 km/h. In stopping distance estimation task, the accurate estimation interval ranged from 60 km/h to 65 km/h, and pedestrians generally underestimated the stopping distance when vehicles were travelling over 65 km/h. The results show that pedestrians have accurate estimation intervals that vary by weather conditions. When the speed of the oncoming vehicle exceeded the upper bound of the accurate interval, pedestrians were more likely to underestimate the vehicle speed, increasing their risk of incorrectly deciding to cross when it is not safe to do so.     

Estimation and visualization of confusability matrices from adaptive measurement data

We present a simple but effective method based on Luce’s choice axiom [Luce, R.D. (1959). Individual choice behavior: A theoretical analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons] for consistent estimation of the pairwise confusabilities of items in a multiple-choice recognition task with arbitrarily chosen choice-sets. The method combines the exact (non-asymptotic) Bayesian way of assessing uncertainty with the unbiasedness emphasized in the classical frequentist approach.We apply the method to data collected using an adaptive computer game designed for prevention of reading disability. A player’s estimated confusability of phonemes (or more accurately, phoneme-grapheme connections) and larger units of language is visualized in an easily understood way with color cues and explicit indication of the accuracy of the estimates. Visualization of learning-related changes in the player’s performance is considered.The empirical validity of the choice axiom is evaluated using the game data itself. The axiom appears to hold reasonably well although a small systematic violation is observable for the smallest choice-set sizes.     

A Bayesian-optimal principle for learner-friendly adaptation in learning games

Adaptive learning games should provide opportunities for the student to learn as well as motivate playing until goals have been reached. In this paper, we give a mathematically rigorous treatment of the problem in the framework of Bayesian decision theory. To quantify the opportunities for learning, we assume that the learning tasks that yield the most information about the current skills of the student, while being desirable for measurement in their own right, would also be among those that are efficient for learning. Indeed, optimization of the expected information gain appears to naturally avoid tasks that are exceedingly demanding or exceedingly easy as their results are predictable and thus uninformative. Still, tasks that are efficient for learning may be experienced as too challenging, and the resulting failures can lower motivation. Therefore, in addition to quantifying the expected informational benefit for learning of any prospective task to be presented next, we also model the expected motivational cost of its presentation, measured simply as the estimated probability of failure in our example model. We propose a “learner-friendly” adaptation algorithm that chooses the learning tasks by optimizing the expected benefit divided by the expected cost. We apply this algorithm to a Rasch-like student model implemented within a real-world application and present initial results of a pilot experiment.     

《心理统计学》教学内容的新探索

本文在对当前国内外主要心理统计学教材进行比较的基础上,指出与上个世纪八十年代的心理统计学教材内容相比较,在内容上的新探索主要体现在（1）由“假设检验”的内容中发展出“统计检验力”和“效果大小”的统计指标和估计方法;（2）引进一般线性模型来统合方差分析和回归分析这两种统计方法;（3）适度增加一些“多元统计分析”的内容等三个方面.本文对前两个方面的新内容作了简要评述,并对教材内容的编排方面提出了新的思路.