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61.
使用单任务研究程序,采用引入提示线索的方法,以产生时距作为反应指标对存在间断的时距估计任务中的间断期望效应和提示线索效应(注意效应)进行系统考察,并对间断时距的效应、产生时距与等待时距的关系问题作出进一步探讨。结果表明,间断位置(等待时距)因素是被试时间判断的主要线索,被试的产生时距随着等待时距的增加而延长。间断实验中表现出极其显著的提示线索效应,此效应既增加了时距估计的变异,又延长了被试的时距估计。无间断实验条件下,被试表现出显著的间断期望效应,被试对间断的期望有损于时间估计。  相似文献   
62.
A definition ofessential independence is proposed for sequences of polytomous items. For items satisfying the reasonable assumption that the expected amount of credit awarded increases with examinee ability, we develop a theory ofessential unidimensionality which closely parallels that of Stout. Essentially unidimensional item sequences can be shown to have a unique (up to change-of-scale) dominant underlying trait, which can be consistently estimated by a monotone transformation of the sum of the item scores. In more general polytomous-response latent trait models (with or without ordered responses), anM-estimator based upon maximum likelihood may be shown to be consistent for under essentially unidimensional violations of local independence and a variety of monotonicity/identifiability conditions. A rigorous proof of this fact is given, and the standard error of the estimator is explored. These results suggest that ability estimation methods that rely on the summation form of the log likelihood under local independence should generally be robust under essential independence, but standard errors may vary greatly from what is usually expected, depending on the degree of departure from local independence. An index of departure from local independence is also proposed.This work was supported in part by Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-87-K-0277 and National Science Foundation Grant NSF-DMS-88-02556. The author is grateful to William F. Stout for many helpful comments, and to an anonymous reviewer for raising the questions addressed in section 2. A preliminary version of section 6 appeared in the author's Ph.D. thesis.  相似文献   
63.
Cahan S  Mor Y 《Cognition》2007,105(1):47-64
Narrow Window theory, suggested by Y. Kareev ten years ago, has so far focused on one central implication of the limited capacity of working memory on intuitive correlation estimation, namely, overestimation of the distal population correlation. This paper points to additional and perhaps more dramatic implications due to the large dispersion of intuitive estimates: (a) large estimation errors, possibly causing overestimation of negligible rhos, misses of strong rhos, and distorted hierarchies of the rhos between different pairs of variables; and (b) large interpersonal differences in the estimation of any given rho and highly incongruent hierarchies of estimated correlations between different pairs of variables. These implications impede both individuals' adaptation to the empirical world and communication among themselves.  相似文献   
64.
Abstract

This paper evaluated multilevel reliability measures in two-level nested designs (e.g., students nested within teachers) within an item response theory framework. A simulation study was implemented to investigate the behavior of the multilevel reliability measures and the uncertainty associated with the measures in various multilevel designs regarding the number of clusters, cluster sizes, and intraclass correlations (ICCs), and in different test lengths, for two parameterizations of multilevel item response models with separate item discriminations or the same item discrimination over levels. Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)-multiple imputation and Bayesian analysis were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rates of Monte Carlo (MC) confidence or credible intervals. Considering the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the intervals, the results lead us to generally recommend MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with separate item discriminations over levels, marginally acceptable accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were found in a limited condition, 200 clusters, 30 cluster size, .2 ICC, and 40 items, in MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with the same item discrimination over levels, the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were acceptable in all multilevel designs we considered with 40 items under MMLE-multiple imputation. We discuss these findings and provide guidelines for reporting multilevel reliability measures.  相似文献   
65.
    
Expert judgment often involves estimating magnitudes, such as the frequency of deaths due to a pandemic. Three experiments (Ns = 902, 431, and 755, respectively) were conducted to examine the effect of outcome framing (e.g., half of a threatened group expected to survive vs. die), probability level (low vs. high), and probability format (verbal, numeric, or combined) on the estimated frequency of survivals/deaths. Each experiment found an interactive effect of frame and probability level, which supported the hypothesis that forecasted outcomes received by participants were implicitly quantified as lower bounds (i.e., “at least half”). Responding in a manner consistent with a lower-bound “at least” interpretation was unrelated to incoherence (Experiments 1 and 2) and positively related to numeracy (Experiments 1 and 3), verbal reasoning (Experiment 3), and actively open-minded thinking (Experiments 2 and 3). The correlational results indicate that implicit lower bounding is an aspect of linguistic inference and not a cognitive error. Implications for research on framing effects are discussed.  相似文献   
66.
    
This review involved a systematic analysis of equivalence-based instruction (EBI) that aimed to improve food-size interventions in diverse populations. Systematic searches identified seven studies published since 2010 that met inclusion criteria. These studies were analyzed according to their participants, design, setting, content taught, training structures, training protocol, testing format, treatment integrity, and outcomes. Results showed EBI procedures for teaching food estimation skills have been mostly implemented with adults. The type of content taught in the identified studies included carbohydrate ranges, portion size with food and non-food items, measuring cups and nutritional content of calories. Majority of included studies used one-to-many training structure and simultaneous protocols for teaching stimulus relations. Five studies completed a generalization probe and three studies reported treatment integrity data. Overall, all participants demonstrated skill acquisition of novel relations between food and portion measurement aides. Recommendations for future research and clinical applications of EBI in teaching food portion estimation are presented.  相似文献   
67.
    
This special issue of the British Journal of Psychology brings together cutting edge research on a range of topics in visual working memory (VWM). In this commentary, we attempt to summarize common themes in current VWM research exemplified in this issue. The articles include several reviews of important topics as well as empirical papers covering three main themes. The first concerns the nature of mental representations of memoranda in the commonly used delayed estimation task, where both fine‐grained and broad categorical details appear to be represented, and their susceptibility to interference. The second concerns interactions between VWM representations, both those that produce individuation of representations and those that create an overarching ensemble structure. Finally, the third main topic concerns the use of VWM during visual search and in the learning of repeated configurations in search displays. The work presented here, and other work in the field, points to a rich interplay between representations in VWM but also between VWM and information in long‐term memory. Opportunities for further investigation are highlighted throughout.  相似文献   
68.
    
This study examined whether different aspects of mathematical proficiency influence one's ability to make adaptive financial decisions. “Numeracy” refers to the ability to process numerical and probabilistic information and is commonly reported as an important factor which contributes to financial decision‐making ability. The precision of mental number representation (MNR), measured with the number line estimation (NLE) task has been reported to be another critical factor. This study aimed to examine the contribution of these mathematical proficiencies while controlling for the influence of fluid intelligence, math anxiety and personality factors. In our decision‐making task, participants chose between two options offering probabilistic monetary gain or loss. Sensitivity to expected value was measured as an index for the ability to discriminate between optimal versus suboptimal options. Partial correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that NLE precision better explained EV sensitivity compared to numeracy, after controlling for all covariates. These results suggest that individuals with more precise MNR are capable of making more rational financial decisions. We also propose that the measurement of “numeracy,” which is commonly used interchangeably with general mathematical proficiency, should include more diverse aspects of mathematical cognition including basic understanding of number magnitude.  相似文献   
69.
    
Research studies in psychology and education often seek to detect changes or growth in an outcome over a duration of time. This research provides a solution to those interested in estimating latent traits from psychological measures that rely on human raters. Rater effects potentially degrade the quality of scores in constructed response and performance assessments. We develop an extension of the hierarchical rater model (HRM), which yields estimates of latent traits that have been corrected for individual rater bias and variability, for ratings that come from longitudinal designs. The parameterization, called the longitudinal HRM (L-HRM), includes an autoregressive time series process to permit serial dependence between latent traits at adjacent timepoints, as well as a parameter for overall growth. We evaluate and demonstrate the feasibility and performance of the L-HRM using simulation studies. Parameter recovery results reveal predictable amounts and patterns of bias and error for most parameters across conditions. An application to ratings from a study of character strength demonstrates the model. We discuss limitations and future research directions to improve the L-HRM.  相似文献   
70.
    
Being able to estimate quantity is important in everyday life and for success in the STEM disciplines. However, people have difficulty reasoning about magnitudes outside of human perception (e.g., nanoseconds, geologic time). This study examines patterns of estimation errors across temporal and spatial magnitudes at large scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of hierarchical alignment in improving estimations, and transfer across dimensions. The activity was successful in increasing accuracy for temporal and spatial magnitudes, and learning transferred to the estimation of numeric magnitudes associated with events and objects. However, there were also a number of informative differences in performance on temporal, spatial, and numeric magnitude measures, suggesting that participants possess different categorical information for these scales. Educational implications are discussed.  相似文献   
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