Multilevel Modeling with Correlated Effects

When there exist omitted effects, measurement error, and/or simultaneity in multilevel models, explanatory variables may be correlated with random components, and standard estimation methods do not provide consistent estimates of model parameters. This paper introduces estimators that are consistent under such conditions. By employing generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques in multilevel modeling, the authors present a series of estimators along a robust to efficient continuum. This continuum depends on the assumptions that the analyst makes regarding the extent of the correlated effects. It is shown that the GMM approach provides an overarching framework that encompasses well-known estimators such as fixed and random effects estimators and also provides more options. These GMM estimators can be expressed as instrumental variable (IV) estimators which enhances their interpretability. Moreover, by exploiting the hierarchical structure of the data, the current technique does not require additional variables unlike traditional IV methods. Further, statistical tests are developed to compare the different estimators. A simulation study examines the finite sample properties of the estimators and tests and confirms the theoretical order of the estimators with respect to their robustness and efficiency. It further shows that not only are regression coefficients biased, but variance components may be severely underestimated in the presence of correlated effects. Empirical standard errors are employed as they are less sensitive to correlated effects when compared to model-based standard errors. An example using student achievement data shows that GMM estimators can be effectively used in a search for the most efficient among unbiased estimators. This research was supported by the National Academy of Education/Spencer Foundation and the National Science Foundation, grant number SES-0436274. We thank the editor, associate editor, and referees for detailed feedback that helped improve the paper.     

A Pearson-Type-VII item response model for assessing person fluctuation

Using Lumsden’s Thurstonian fluctuation model as a starting point, this paper attempts to develop a unidimensional item response theory model intended for binary personality items. Under some additional assumptions, a new model is obtained in which the item characteristic curves are defined by a cumulative Pearson-Type-VII distribution, and the person response curves are two-parameter normal ogives. Procedures for fitting the new model are proposed. Furthermore, the relations between individual fluctuation and scalability are discussed, and a scalability index based on the new model is proposed. All the developments in this paper are illustrated using two empirical examples.     

注意在短时距估计中的作用

注意一直是时间知觉研究的一个重要问题。本文综述了研究已经取得一些较为一致的结果：在双任务程序中对时间任务的注意越多,时距估计越准确;在单一任务中对目标刺激的时间属性注意越多,对该刺激的持续时距估计越准确;在时间导向任务中,个体可以有效地、主动把注意导向未来的某段时距,那么将对出现在那个时刻的刺激做出更好的反应。最后,讨论了现有研究中存在的、以及今后研究中需要着重考虑的问题。     

Representational change and children's numerical estimation

We applied overlapping waves theory and microgenetic methods to examine how children improve their estimation proficiency, and in particular how they shift from reliance on immature to mature representations of numerical magnitude. We also tested the theoretical prediction that feedback on problems on which the discrepancy between two representations is greatest will cause the greatest representational change. Second graders who initially were assessed as relying on an immature representation were presented feedback that varied in degree of discrepancy between the predictions of the mature and immature representations. The most discrepant feedback produced the greatest representational change. The change was strikingly abrupt, often occurring after a single feedback trial, and impressively broad, affecting estimates over the entire range of numbers from 0 to 1000. The findings indicated that cognitive change can occur at the level of an entire representation, rather than always involving a sequence of local repairs.     

Experience with Event Timing Does not Alter Emergent Timing: Further Evidence for Robustness of Event and Emergent Timing

Although, event and emergent timings are thought of as mutually exclusive, significant correlations between tapping and circle drawing (Baer, Thibodeau, Gralnick, Li, &; Penhune, 2013 Baer, L. H., Thibodeau, J. L. N., Gralnick, T. M., Li, K. Z. H., &; Penhune, V. B. (2013). The role of musical training in emergent and event-based timing. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 7(191), 1–10. doi:10.3389/fnhum.2013.00191.[Crossref], [PubMed] , [Google Scholar]; Studenka, Zelaznik, &; Balasubramaniam, 2012 Studenka, B. E., Zelaznik, H. N., &; Balasubramaniam, R. (2012). The distinction between tapping and circle drawing with and without tactile feedback: An examination of the sources of timing variance. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 65(6), 1086–1100. doi:10.1080/17470218.2011.640404.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Zelaznik &; Rosenbaum, 2010 Zelaznik, H. N., &; Rosenbaum, D. A. (2010). Timing processes are correlated when tasks share a salient event. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 36(6), 1565–1575. doi:10.1037/a0020380.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggest that emergent timing may not be as robust as once thought. We aimed to test this hypothesis in both a younger (18–25) and older (55–100) population. Participants performed one block of circle drawing as a baseline, then six blocks of tapping, followed by circle drawing. We examined the use of event timing. Our hypothesis that acute experience with event timing would bias an individual to use event timing during an emergent task was not supported. We, instead, support the robustness of event and emergent timing as independent timing modes.     

Semi‐parametric proportional hazards models with crossed random effects for psychometric response times

The semi‐parametric proportional hazards model with crossed random effects has two important characteristics: it avoids explicit specification of the response time distribution by using semi‐parametric models, and it captures heterogeneity that is due to subjects and items. The proposed model has a proportionality parameter for the speed of each test taker, for the time intensity of each item, and for subject or item characteristics of interest. It is shown how all these parameters can be estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Gibbs sampling). The performance of the estimation procedure is assessed with simulations and the model is further illustrated with the analysis of response times from a visual recognition task.     

Strategic retrieval processing and the impact of knowing when a memory was first created

Retrieval orientation refers to a process where participants strategically alter how a memory cue is processed in response to different task demands. In the present study we explored whether retrieval orientation is influenced by knowing when an old stimulus was first encoded. Participants completed separate remember/know test blocks for old items from a recent delay (40 min) and old items from a remote delay (48 h). Manipulations at encoding ensured that performance levels were matched between these two blocks, thus avoiding confounds with differences in retrieval effort. Importantly, a third test block comprised old items from both delays randomly intermixed. As the nature of the old items varies unpredictably in the mixed block, it should not be possibly to adopt a specific retrieval orientation and the mixed block therefore acts as a control condition. Participants saw the words “mixed,” “recent” or “remote” prior to each test block. Comparing ERPs from the recent and remote blocks permitted an investigation of whether participants alter their retrieval orientation in response to the specific length of the retention interval. Comparing ERPs from the pure (recent and remote) test blocks to ERPs from the mixed block permitted an investigation of whether delay information per se led to differences in retrieval strategy. Analysis of the ERP data found no differences between the recent and remote blocks. However, ERPs from these pure blocks were significantly less positive than ERPs from the mixed block from 200 ms towards the end of the epoch. The findings suggest that the delay information was useful in a general sense and encouraged retrieval strategies distinct from those engaged in the mixed block. We speculate that such strategies might relate to whether or not the retrieval search is specific and constrained and/or whether processes that serve to reinstate the original encoding context are engaged.     

The role of feedback and dot presentation format in younger and older adults’ number estimation

Numerosity estimation, the rapid assessment of the number of items in a visual scene, is historically inaccurate. We assessed whether providing feedback regarding the correct numerosity on either 0%, 50%, or 100% of the trials would affect younger and older adults’ estimation accuracy for randomized, clustered (i.e., groups of 3 or 7 dots), and stacked (i.e., column) dot formats. Participants provided estimates and confidence ratings in six blocks, each containing 48 trials (16 numerosities shown in each format). Feedback frequency was manipulated between participants during blocks 1–4; no feedback was provided during blocks 5 and 6, which contained old and new numerosities and previously estimated presentations rotated 90°. Estimation accuracy was age equivalent across blocks despite younger adults initially being more accurate than older adults. Feedback improved both age groups’ accuracy. Stacked presentations were most accurately estimated but were more likely to be over-estimated than clustered and randomized presentations. Older adults gave lower confidence ratings than younger adults despite both age groups showing increased confidence across blocks, for more structured presentation formats, and as feedback frequency increased. These results expand our understanding of the role of presentation format and feedback in producing age equivalence or age-related differences in numerosity estimation.     

题组反应理论及其在中学英语考试中的应用研究

题组作为众多测验中的一种常见题型,由于项目间存在一定程度的依赖性而违背了局部独立性假设,若用项目反应模型进行参数估计将会出现较大的偏差.题组反应理论将被试与题组的交互作用纳入到模型中,解决了项目间相依性的问题.笔者对题组反应理论的发展、基本原理及其相关研究进行了综述,并将其应用在中学英语考试中.与项目反应理论相对比,结果发现：（1）题组反应模型与项目反应模型在各参数估计值的相关系数较强,尤其是能力参数和难度参数;（2）在置信区间宽度的比较上,题组反应模型在各个参数上均窄于项目反应模型,即题组反应模型的估计精度优于项目反应模型.     

两种估计多维测验合成信度置信区间方法比较

有两种方法可以估计多维测验合成信度的置信区间：Bootstrap法和Delta法.本文用模拟研究比较这两种方法,结果发现,Delta法与Bootstrap法得到结果的差异很小.因为Bootstrap法得到的是实证结果,通常被认为是真值的反映,而Delta法比Bootstrap法简单得多,所以可以用Delta法估计合成信度的置信区间.举例演示如何计算多维测验的合成信度以及用Delta法计算其置信区间.