A Comparative Investigation of Confidence Intervals for IndependentVariables in Linear Regression

In linear regression, the most appropriate standardized effect size for individual independent variables having an arbitrary metric remains open to debate, despite researchers typically reporting a standardized regression coefficient. Alternative standardized measures include the semipartial correlation, the improvement in the squared multiple correlation, and the squared partial correlation. No arguments based on either theoretical or statistical grounds for preferring one of these standardized measures have been mounted in the literature. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of interval estimators for these effect-size measures was compared in a 5-way factorial design. Formal statistical design methods assessed both the accuracy and robustness of the four interval estimators. The coverage probability of a large-sample confidence interval for the semipartial correlation coefficient derived from Aloe and Becker was highly accurate and robust in 98% of instances. It was better in small samples than the Yuan-Chan large-sample confidence interval for a standardized regression coefficient. It was also consistently better than both a bootstrap confidence interval for the improvement in the squared multiple correlation and a noncentral interval for the squared partial correlation.     

关于假设检验的争议:问题的澄清与解决

对传统的假设检验作为心理学实验的数据分析工具的评价涉及两个标准:首先是它是否合法,其次是它是否有用。置于频率学派统计学框架中的传统假设检验在逻辑上实际上是合法的;但它在效用性方面则有着备择假设不可证伪以及只能提供定性结论这两方面的缺陷。置信区间能够集中地改进和弥补这些缺陷。对传统假设检验使用中错误的澄清也使得研究者们开始重视PSI问题,这使得心理学实验的设计和数据分析从关注总体转向关注个体。     

Stochastic pairwise comparative judgements and direct ratings of alternatives in the REMBRANDT system

The REMBRANDT system for multicriteria decision analysis consists of both the multiplicative variant of the AHP (which employs a method of pairwise comparative judgements by a decision maker to arrive at final impact scores for the alternatives under consideration) and SMART, the simple multiattribute rating technique (which utilizes direct rating of alternatives to achieve final impact scores). This paper examines the effect of imprecision or uncertainty in the decision maker's pairwise judgements or ratings of alternatives by expressing each pairwise judgement or rating as a probability distribution, and the structure of REMBRANDT's component models is exploited to derive interval judgements or interval ratings of the alternatives’ final impact scores. These interval judgements or interval ratings can be used to determine the probability of rank reversal amongst alternatives, i.e. to assess the stability of the final impact score vector. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1s范围视听时距认知的分段性研究

时距认知分段性指不同长度时距加工机制和表征方式不同。以往研究对1s范围时距认知分段性仍存在分歧,为此在规避以往研究局限基础上设计实验1和实验2。实验1和实验2分别采用双任务范式探讨心算任务对100ms和1000ms听、视时距比较的选择性干扰,结果表明,心算任务影响了1000ms听、视时距比较的75%差别阈限,心算加工负荷越大,75%差别阈限越大,但对100ms听、视时距比较的75%差别阈限没有影响。两项实验支持了1s范围视、听时距认知均具有分段性。     

意向保持间隔对时间性前瞻记忆的影响

通过两个实验来探讨意向保持间隔对时间性前瞻记忆的影响。实验一仅通过嵌入前瞻目标的背景任务来操纵保持间隔,实验二通过在背景任务之前加入不同时长的填充任务来改变意向保持间隔。结果发现,(1)背景任务中的保持间隔越长,前瞻记忆成绩越差;(2)背景任务中的保持间隔和填充任务的时长对前瞻记忆的影响存在交互作用。成绩最好的为15min-2min组,最差的为15min-15min组。结果表明,背景任务和填充任务阶段对于个体保持前瞻意向可能有不同的功能。     

单维测验合成信度元分析

元分析是根据现有研究对感兴趣的主题得出比较准确和有代表性结论的一种重要方法,在心理、教育、管理、医学等社会科学研究中得到广泛应用。信度是衡量测验质量的重要指标,用合成信度能比较准确的估计测验信度。未见有文献提供合成信度元分析方法。本研究在比较对参数进行元分析的三种模型优劣的基础上,在变化系数模型下推出合成信度元分析点估计及区间估计的方法;以区间覆盖率为衡量指标,模拟研究表明本研究提出的合成信度元分析区间估计的方法得当;举例说明如何对单维测验的合成信度进行元分析。     

时间间隔与未来事件效价：解释水平的中介作用

通过考察解释水平, 诠释时间间隔和未来事件效价的双向关系。结果发现：时间间隔会影响人们对未来事件效价的感知, 高解释水平事件在长时间间隔后发生的感知效价更好, 而低解释水平事件在短时间间隔后发生的感知效价更好(研究1); 同时, 未来事件效价也会反向影响人们对时间间隔的感知, 相对于未来发生的正效价事件, 负效价事件的感知时间间隔更短(研究2)。无论是时间间隔对未来事件感知效价的影响, 还是未来事件效价对感知时间间隔的影响, 解释水平均在其中起到中介作用。     

Spatial memory in rats after 25 hours

We investigated the time course of spatial-memory decay in rats using an eight-arm radial maze. It is well established that performance remains high with retention intervals as long as 4 h, but declines to chance with a 24-h retention interval (Beatty, W. W., & Shavalia, D. A. (1980b). Spatial memory in rats: time course of working memory and effect of anesthetics. Behavioral & Neural Biology, 28, 454-462). It is possible that 24 h reflects a genuine retention limitation of rat spatial memory. Alternatively, it may be possible to identify factors that might support memory performance even after very long delays. The current experiment was conducted to test the above two hypotheses. We evaluated performance using two intertrial intervals (24 and 48 h) and two retention intervals (1 and 25 h). Increasing the intertrial interval produced an approximately constant increase in performance for both retention intervals. This improvement is consistent with a trial-spacing effect (i.e., the superiority of spaced over massed trials). Rat spatial memory apparently lasts at least 25 h.     

Nonuniform effects of reinstatement within the time window

A time window is a limited period after an event initially occurs in which additional information can be integrated with the memory of that event. It shuts when the memory is forgotten. The time window hypothesis holds that the impact of a manipulation at different points within the time window is nonuniform. In two operant conditioning experiments with 68 3-month-old human infants, we tested the predictive validity of the nonuniformity principle for reinstatement—a partial training trial that forestalls forgetting. After demonstrating that 3-month-olds forget the training task after 5 days (Experiment 1), we presented a reinstatement early (immediately), midway (3 days), or late (5 days) in the time window (Experiment 2). Retention increased exponentially with the reinstatement delay. The surprising magnitude of this result, plus its generality across tasks and species, strongly suggests that the timing of reinstatement differentially affects the outcomes of studies on learning and memory.     

A comparison of momentary time sampling and partial-interval recording for evaluating functional relations

In the current study, momentary time sampling (MTS) and partial-interval recording (PIR) were compared to continuous-duration recording of stereotypy and to the frequency of self-injury during a treatment analysis to determine whether the recording method affected data interpretation. Five previously conducted treatment analysis data sets were analyzed by creating separate graphic displays for each measurement method (duration or frequency, MTS, and PIR). An expert panel interview and structured criterion visual inspection were used to evaluate treatment effects across measurement methods. Results showed that treatment analysis interpretations based on both discontinuous recording methods often matched those based on frequency or duration recording; however, interpretations based on MTS were slightly more likely to match those based on duration and those based on PIR were slightly more likely to match those based on frequency.