Managers' variance investigation decisions: an experimental examination of probabilistic and outcome ambiguity

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities or outcomes, how managers decide which department's performance to investigate further when they are provided with performance benchmarks expressed in numerical intervals. Seventy‐nine MBA students participated in two experiments involving investigation decisions. We presented participants with interval benchmarks of a firm's expenses. Being below or above the benchmark should have been seen as equally negative. We found that, when facing outcome ambiguity, our participants consistently preferred to investigate further those departments whose performance was described as having an ambiguous outcome (when the outcome's range was centered either below or above the interval benchmark). However, when facing probabilistic ambiguity, there were two predominant choice patterns: consistently choosing to investigate the department whose performance is described with an ambiguous probability, or consistently choosing to investigate the department with unambiguous performance. To gain further insight, we conducted a follow‐up study collecting written protocols of participants' reasons for making choices involving ambiguous performance information. The results show that our participants displayed similar decision‐making processes when facing outcome ambiguity and probabilistic ambiguity. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The general matching law describes choice on concurrent variable-interval schedules of wheel-running reinforcement.

Six male Wistar rats were exposed to concurrent variable-interval schedules of wheel-running reinforcement. The reinforcer associated with each alternative was the opportunity to run for 15 s, and the duration of the changeover delay was 1 s. Results suggested that time allocation was more sensitive to relative reinforcement rate than was response allocation. For time allocation, the mean slopes and intercepts were 0.82 and 0.008, respectively. In contrast, for response allocation, mean slopes and intercepts were 0.60 and 0.03, respectively. Correction for low response rates and high rates of changing over, however, increased slopes for response allocation to about equal those for time allocation. The results of the present study suggest that the two-operant form of the matching law can be extended to wheel-running reinforcement. 'I'he effects of a low overall response rate, a short Changeover delay, and long postreinforcement pausing on the assessment of matching in the present study are discussed.     

Experience with Event Timing Does not Alter Emergent Timing: Further Evidence for Robustness of Event and Emergent Timing

Although, event and emergent timings are thought of as mutually exclusive, significant correlations between tapping and circle drawing (Baer, Thibodeau, Gralnick, Li, &; Penhune, 2013 Baer, L. H., Thibodeau, J. L. N., Gralnick, T. M., Li, K. Z. H., &; Penhune, V. B. (2013). The role of musical training in emergent and event-based timing. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 7(191), 1–10. doi:10.3389/fnhum.2013.00191.[Crossref], [PubMed] , [Google Scholar]; Studenka, Zelaznik, &; Balasubramaniam, 2012 Studenka, B. E., Zelaznik, H. N., &; Balasubramaniam, R. (2012). The distinction between tapping and circle drawing with and without tactile feedback: An examination of the sources of timing variance. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 65(6), 1086–1100. doi:10.1080/17470218.2011.640404.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Zelaznik &; Rosenbaum, 2010 Zelaznik, H. N., &; Rosenbaum, D. A. (2010). Timing processes are correlated when tasks share a salient event. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 36(6), 1565–1575. doi:10.1037/a0020380.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggest that emergent timing may not be as robust as once thought. We aimed to test this hypothesis in both a younger (18–25) and older (55–100) population. Participants performed one block of circle drawing as a baseline, then six blocks of tapping, followed by circle drawing. We examined the use of event timing. Our hypothesis that acute experience with event timing would bias an individual to use event timing during an emergent task was not supported. We, instead, support the robustness of event and emergent timing as independent timing modes.     

Strategic retrieval processing and the impact of knowing when a memory was first created

Retrieval orientation refers to a process where participants strategically alter how a memory cue is processed in response to different task demands. In the present study we explored whether retrieval orientation is influenced by knowing when an old stimulus was first encoded. Participants completed separate remember/know test blocks for old items from a recent delay (40 min) and old items from a remote delay (48 h). Manipulations at encoding ensured that performance levels were matched between these two blocks, thus avoiding confounds with differences in retrieval effort. Importantly, a third test block comprised old items from both delays randomly intermixed. As the nature of the old items varies unpredictably in the mixed block, it should not be possibly to adopt a specific retrieval orientation and the mixed block therefore acts as a control condition. Participants saw the words “mixed,” “recent” or “remote” prior to each test block. Comparing ERPs from the recent and remote blocks permitted an investigation of whether participants alter their retrieval orientation in response to the specific length of the retention interval. Comparing ERPs from the pure (recent and remote) test blocks to ERPs from the mixed block permitted an investigation of whether delay information per se led to differences in retrieval strategy. Analysis of the ERP data found no differences between the recent and remote blocks. However, ERPs from these pure blocks were significantly less positive than ERPs from the mixed block from 200 ms towards the end of the epoch. The findings suggest that the delay information was useful in a general sense and encouraged retrieval strategies distinct from those engaged in the mixed block. We speculate that such strategies might relate to whether or not the retrieval search is specific and constrained and/or whether processes that serve to reinstate the original encoding context are engaged.     

两种估计多维测验合成信度置信区间方法比较

有两种方法可以估计多维测验合成信度的置信区间：Bootstrap法和Delta法.本文用模拟研究比较这两种方法,结果发现,Delta法与Bootstrap法得到结果的差异很小.因为Bootstrap法得到的是实证结果,通常被认为是真值的反映,而Delta法比Bootstrap法简单得多,所以可以用Delta法估计合成信度的置信区间.举例演示如何计算多维测验的合成信度以及用Delta法计算其置信区间.     

心理学实验的可重复性

严格意义的实验可重复性指的是实验控制条件不变的情况下其结果的可重复性,置信区间是表示这种可重复性的恰当方法,可重复性的提高可通过在实验设计和数据分析中将影响因变量的随机额外变量作为协变量引入来实现;另一种意义的可重复性指的是实验结果的可迁移性,它涉及当控制条件变化时因控制变量和自变量的交互作用而导致的实验结果的变化。在这两种意义下,心理学实验较低的可重复性都源于它的额外变量的庞杂。     

Back to the basics: Rethinking partial correlation network methodology

The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) is an increasingly popular technique used in psychology to characterize relationships among observed variables. These relationships are represented as elements in the precision matrix. Standardizing the precision matrix and reversing the sign yields corresponding partial correlations that imply pairwise dependencies in which the effects of all other variables have been controlled for. The graphical lasso (glasso) has emerged as the default estimation method, which uses ℓ₁-based regularization. The glasso was developed and optimized for high-dimensional settings where the number of variables (p) exceeds the number of observations (n), which is uncommon in psychological applications. Here we propose to go ‘back to the basics’, wherein the precision matrix is first estimated with non-regularized maximum likelihood and then Fisher Z transformed confidence intervals are used to determine non-zero relationships. We first show the exact correspondence between the confidence level and specificity, which is due to 1 minus specificity denoting the false positive rate (i.e., α). With simulations in low-dimensional settings (p ≪ n), we then demonstrate superior performance compared to the glasso for detecting the non-zero effects. Further, our results indicate that the glasso is inconsistent for the purpose of model selection and does not control the false discovery rate, whereas the proposed method converges on the true model and directly controls error rates. We end by discussing implications for estimating GGMs in psychology.     

The counterintuitive impact of responses and response times on parameter estimates in the drift diffusion model

Given a drift diffusion model with unknown drift and boundary parameters, we analyse the behaviour of maximum likelihood estimates with respect to changes of responses and response times. It is shown analytically that a single fast response time can dominate the estimation in that no matter how many correct answers a test taker provides, the estimate of the drift (ability) parameter decreases to zero. In addition, it is shown that although higher drift rates imply shorter response times, the reverse implication does not hold for the estimates: shorter response times can decrease the drift rate estimate. In the light of these analytical results, we illustrate the actual impact of the findings in a small simulation for a mental rotation test. The method of analysis outlined is applicable to a broader range of models, and we emphasize the need to further check currently used reaction time models within this framework.     

Continuity of phenomenology and (in)consistency of content of meaningful autobiographical memories

Phenomenology is a critical component of autobiographical memory retrieval; it reflects both (a) memory-specific features and (b) stable individual differences. Few studies have tested phenomenology longitudinally. The present work examined the continuity of memory phenomenology in a sample of Italians adults (N = 105) over a 4-week period. Participants retrieved two ‘key’ personal memories, a Turning Point and an Early Childhood Memory, rated the phenomenology of each memory, and completed measures of personality, psychological distress and subjective well-being. Phenomenological ratings were moderately stable over time (median correlation >.40), regardless of memory content. Personality traits, psychological distress and well-being were associated with phenomenology cross-sectionally and with changes in phenomenology over time. These results suggest that how individuals re-experience their most important personal memories is relatively consistent over time and shaped by both trait and state aspects of psychological functioning.