On the evaluation of one-sided evidence

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one-sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.     

Information seeking on Bayesian conditional probability problems: A fuzzy-trace theory account

Recently, the ‘heuristics and biases’ approach to the study of decision making has been criticized, with a call for better integrated theory. Three experiments stemming from fuzzy-trace theory addressed information seeking on probability problems, and the cognitive representation of hit-rates, base-rates, and the contrapositive. As predicted by the fuzzy-trace principle of ‘denominator neglect’, many subjects exhibited ‘conversion errors’, confusing the hit-rate, P(A|B), with the answer, P(B|A). These subjects sought base-rates less often than other subjects. On causal problems, more subjects correctly represented base-rates, sought base-rates more often, and produced more accurate estimates than on non-causal problems. Subjects tutored on the meaning of the hit-rate sought the base-rate more often, and were more accurate than control subjects. Results are explained by fuzzy-trace theory principles of gist extraction, fuzzy processing preference, denominator neglect, and output interference.     

Teaching children with autism spectrum disorder to ask “where” questions using a speech-generating device

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who have limited speech are often taught to communicate using a speech-generating device (SGD). We evaluated procedures for teaching a mand for information (i.e., Where is [item]?) using an interrupted behavior chain procedure. In Experiment 1, all participants (3 children with ASD who communicated using an SGD) acquired the target mand but transfer to a novel stimulus did not occur. In the second experiment, 2 participants were taught to approach alternative communication partners when the first partner did not provide the information. The second experiment also included procedures to test whether the responses were under the control of appropriate motivating operations (MOs). Generalization across communication partners occurred with both participants, but transfer across behavior chains with only 1 participant. The results of both experiments suggest that teaching multiple behavior chains and evaluating MO control may be necessary to establish generalized manding for information.     

Relative deprivation: A mechanism for the ostracism–aggression link

In five studies, we tested whether ostracism triggers feelings of relative deprivation and whether relative deprivation accounts for the impact of ostracism on aggression. Relative to participants who recalled either inclusive or neutral experiences, participants who recalled ostracism experiences reported higher levels of relative deprivation (Study 1). Furthermore, the feeling of relative deprivation mediated the effect of ostracism on aggression (Studies 2, 3a, and 3b). Framing ostracism as an experience of nondeprivation weakened the connection between ostracism and aggression (Study 4), which suggests an effective way of reducing aggression following an ostracism experience. Together, these findings highlight the significance of relative deprivation in shaping people's responses toward ostracism.     

Genetic and environmental explanations of juvenile violence in advantaged and disadvantaged environments

This study tests the proposition derived from behavioral genetic theory that genetics and environmental variables have different effects across different environments. I examine the effects of intellectual imbalance [performance IQ (P) significantly greater than verbal IQ (V)] a variable assumed to be heritable to some extent, and love deprivation, a composite variable consisting of various indices of parental abuse and neglect, on violent delinquency within different socioeconomic status (SES) environments. The findings are consistent with behavioral genetic theory, in that love deprivation could not explain any unique variance in violent delinquency after P > V explained all that it could in the advantaged environment (49.5%), and P > V could not explain any unique variance in the disadvantaged environment after love deprivation explained all that it could (28.8%). It was also found that love deprivation explains a highly significant 30.5% of the variance in P > V among SES-disadvantaged subjects, thus supporting those who posit that environmental disadvantages contribute significantly to intellectual imbalance. © 1992 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

“They've Put Nothing in the Pot!”: Brexit and the Key Psychological Motivations Behind Voting 'Remain' and 'Leave'

In June 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Voting followed a general trend: disadvantaged areas of the United Kingdom tended to vote “leave,” and more affluent areas tended to vote “remain.” This project investigates the psychological variables underlying this overall trend by distinguishing four psychological motivations: the need for justice, threat reduction needs, need to belong, and the need for control. Participants were recruited from different areas across Greater Manchester (N = 158). A survey assessed voting preference, socioeconomic status, collective relative deprivation (CRD), perceptions of threat from immigration, European and British identification, sense of control in life, and relative gratification. Discriminant function analysis showed that leave voting was characterized by greater realistic threat, symbolic threat, CRD, and British identification. Remain voting was characterized by strong European identification. Findings highlight that a need for justice, threat-reduction needs, and identity needs were key predictors of voting behavior.     

Decision-makers use social information to update their preferences but choose for others as they do for themselves

People's risky decisions are susceptible to the social context in which they take place. Across three experiments using different paradigms, we investigated the influence of three social factors upon participants' decisions: the recipient of the decision-making outcome (self, other, or joint), the nature of the relationship with the other agent (friend, stranger, or teammate), and the type of information that participants received about others' preferences: none at all, general information about how previous participants had decided, or information about a specific partner's preference. We found that participants' decisions about risk did not differ according to whether the outcome at stake was their own, another agent's, or a joint outcome, nor according to the type of information available. Participants did, however, adjust their preferences for risky options in light of social information.     

The influence of biased exposure to forgone outcomes

After making decisions, we often get feedback concerning forgone outcomes (what would have happened had we chosen differently). Yet, many times, our exposure to such feedback is systematically biased. For example, your friends are more likely to tell you about a party you missed if it was fun than if it was boring. Despite its prevalence, the effects of biased exposure to forgone outcomes on future choice have not been directly studied. In three studies (five experiments) using a simplified learning task, we study the basic influence of biased exposure to forgone outcomes in the extreme case in which decision makers can easily infer the missing information such that the biased exposure carries almost no informational value. The results in all studies suggest that nevertheless, the biased exposure to forgone outcomes affected choice. Exposure to forgone outcomes only when they were better than the obtained outcomes (Only-Better-Forgone) increased selections of the forgone option compared with exposure to forgone outcomes only when they were worse than the obtained outcome (Only-Worse-Forgone). Moreover, relative to an unbiased exposure to all forgone outcomes, the effect of exposure to Only-Worse-Forgone was larger than the effect of exposure to Only-Better-Forgone feedback. However, these effects were not universal: In environments that include rare negative events (“disasters”), biased exposure to forgone outcomes had very little effect. We raise potential explanations and further discuss implications for marketing and risk awareness.