True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that standard “overconfidence” findings can easily be explained by different degrees of knowledge of agents plus a random error in predictions. We contribute to the current literature and ongoing research by extensively analyzing interval estimates for knowledge questions, for real financial time series, and for artificially generated charts. We thereby suggest a new method to measure overconfidence in interval estimates, which is based on the implied probability mass behind a stated prediction interval. We document overconfidence patterns, which are difficult to reconcile with rationality of agents and which cannot be explained by differences in knowledge as differences in knowledge do not exist in our task. Furthermore, we show that overconfidence measures are reliable in the sense that there exist stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence in interval estimates, thereby testing an important assumption of behavioral economics and behavioral finance models: stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence across people. We do this in a “field experiment,” for different levels of expertise of subjects (students on the one hand and professional traders and investment bankers on the other hand), over time, by using different miscalibration metrics, and for tasks that avoid common weaknesses such as a non‐representative selection of trick questions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mental Health Services Use Intentions Among Canadian Military Recruits

Identifying the factors associated with mental health services use (MHSU) is an important step in developing strategies to improve services access and delivery. The aims of the present study were to (a) identify personality and individual difference characteristics associated with MHSU intentions within the framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and (b) explore complex relationships that might exist between these characteristics and determinants of MHSU intentions identified in TPB, including attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Data for 244 Canadian Armed Forces recruits who completed a MHSU questionnaire following mental health training were linked to personality data collected earlier. Multivariate analyses showed that the relationship between agreeableness and MHSU intentions was mediated by instrumental attitudes and subjective norms. The relationship between hardiness and MHSU intentions was mediated by subjective norms and self-efficacy. Findings suggest it may be worthwhile to consider mental health education initiatives to improve MHSU.     

An individual approach to psychotherapy with psychotic patients

In this paper I attempt to explore particular aspects of the therapeutic process, especially the unusual way in which the therapy of this 11-year-old girl, referred for possible or potential anorexia nervosa, came to a sudden end. The oedipal configuration provides a useful theoretical framework in which to consider the course and vicissitudes of treatment. The restoration of a link between the child and her father allowed a distance to be created between mother and daughter. The meaning of this is considered both in terms of external events and clinically within the transference relationship.     

Language aptitude for pronunciation in advanced second language (L2) Learners: Behavioural predictors and neural substrates

Individual differences in second language (L2) aptitude have been assumed to depend upon a variety of cognitive and personality factors. Especially, the cognitive factor phonological working memory has been conceptualised as language learning device. However, strong associations between phonological working memory and L2 aptitude have been previously found in early-stage learners only, not in advanced learners. The current study aimed at investigating the behavioural and neurobiological predictors of advanced L2 learning. Our behavioural results showed that phonetic coding ability and empathy, but not phonological working memory, predict L2 pronunciation aptitude in advanced learners. Second, functional neuroimaging revealed this behavioural trait to be correlated with hemodynamic responses of the cerebral network of speech motor control and auditory-perceptual areas. We suggest that the acquisition of L2 pronunciation aptitude is a dynamic process, requiring a variety of neural resources at different processing stages over time.     

Young women’s construction of their post-cancer fertility

Younger women diagnosed with cancer often face compromised fertility as a result of their treatment. However, previous research has adopted a biomedical model of fertility and utilised hypothetico-deductive research methods which have not allowed for full exploration of women’s subjectivity. This study explored younger women’s construction of their fertility post-cancer, and their discussions of fertility with healthcare professionals, from a social constructionist epistemology. Semi-structured one-to-one interviews were conducted with eight women aged 18–26, across a variety of cancer types. Foucaultian Discourse Analysis identified three subject positions associated with fertility concerns: ‘Inadequate woman: Accepting the motherhood mandate’; ‘Adequate woman: Resisting the motherhood mandate’; and ‘Survival of the fittest: Woman as genetically defective’. Implications of these subject positions included feelings of inadequacy, fear and devastation; feeling undesirable to romantic partners; and concern about passing on cancer-positive genes. In describing healthcare professional interactions, women adopted positions of ‘Satisfied patient’; ‘Passive recipient patient’; or ‘Resisting the passive patient position’. Accounts of inadequate information provision were associated with anger and frustration, whereas feeling adequately informed was associated with satisfaction at making decisions about fertility preservation. These results suggest that fertility is of importance to young women cancer survivors, and that compromised fertility can negatively impact subjectivity.     

Materials used to support cognitive behavioural therapy for depression: a survey of therapists’ clinical practice and views

ABSTRACT

Use of supporting materials in cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is widely advocated, and homework increases effectiveness. The study aimed to identify materials most frequently used by CBT therapists to support CBT for depression, and those perceived clinically most effective. Questionnaires were sent to 3665 accredited CBT therapists asking about their use of resources commonly described in CBT manuals, and their views on effectiveness. Of 3665 approached by post/email, 994 (27%) responded. Another 33 completed the questionnaire via the study website. 818/1027 (80%) of respondents were accredited practitioners who deliver one-to-one therapy. Symptom measures, lists of problems/goals, activity schedules, behavioural activation diaries/plans, and case formulation worksheets were used “frequently” or “very frequently” by over 85% of respondents. Sleep diaries and computerised CBT were used least. Most resources were used within and between sessions. Activity schedules, behavioural activation diaries/plans, case formulation worksheets, thought records, and resources to support the identification of conditional beliefs were regarded as most effective. Symptom measures, sleep diaries, and computerised/online materials were considered only moderately effective. Therapists use a wide range of materials to support individual CBT. For delivering CBT, technology-enabled approaches should incorporate a range of materials to enable therapists to tailor treatment effectively.     

基于概念复杂度的加工容量观

探讨了一个认知科学的概念——容量,主要是介绍一种基于概念维度的加工容量观.这种观点认为加工容量最好以进入某一特定运算过程的独立维度来定义,容量的增长意味着可以表征更多的维度,而概念的组块与分割是常用的表征策略.个体差异通过表征的清晰度和有效性的差异来表现,而认知的发展则是成熟与经验相互作用的结果.     

Group Responsibility for Ethnic Conflict

When a group of persons such as a nation orcorporation has a relatively clear structureand set of decision procedures, it is capableof acting and should, it can well be argued, beconsidered morally as well as legallyresponsible. This is not because it is afull-fledged moral person, but becauseassigning responsibility is a human practice,and we have good moral reasons to adopt thepractice of considering such groupsresponsible. From such judgments, however,little follows about the responsibility ofindividual members of such groups; much moreneeds to be ascertained about which officialsor executives are responsible for what beforewe can consider individual members of nationsor corporations responsible.Whether an unorganized group can be morallyresponsible is much less clear, but there havebeen useful discussions in recent years of thepossible responsibility of whites for racism,or males for sexism, and the like. In thisessay I explore arguments for consideringgroups or their members responsible for ethnicconflict. Such groups may lack a clearorganizational structure, but they are notrandom assortments of persons. Groups can andoften should take responsibility for theattitudes and actions of their members, and cansometimes be considered responsible for failingto do so. And persons often can and shouldtake responsibility for the attitudes andactions of the groups of which they aremembers.     

Collective Responsibility

The basic bearer of responsibility is individuals, because that isall there are – nothing else can literally be the bearer of fullresponsibility. Claims about group responsibility therefore needanalysis. This would be impossible if all actions must be understoodas ones that could be performed whether or not anyone else exists.Individuals often act by virtue of membership in certain groups;often such membership bears a causal role in our behavior, andsometimes people act deliberately in order to promote the prospectsof members of a given group. Nevertheless, it is rational to awardproportionally to individual contributions to those actions andindividual shares in the production of the consequences of thoseactions.     

Risk preferences in young children: early evidence of individual differences in reaction to potential gains and losses

New methods were developed for studying risky decision making in children as young as age five. Each child was given a block of ‘gain’ trials, for example, a choice between a sure gain of one prize and a 50:50 chance of gaining either two prizes or no prize, and a block of ‘loss’ trials, for example, a choice between a sure loss of one prize and a 50:50 chance of losing either two prizes or no prize. We were thus able to compare risky choice for gains and losses at the level of the individual child. In each of two experiments a variety of individual difference variables were measured, including in Experiment 2, the child's parent's scores on the same task. Across experiments, the preponderance of choices was of the risky option. However, most children and adults made more risky choices in the domain of losses than in the domain of gains. Predictors of individual differences in children included shyness, impulsivity, and the risk taking of the child's parent. We suggest that methods are now in place to encourage further studies of decision processes in young children. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.