A Field Experiment Comparing Anchored and Unanchored Criteria Weights in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

This study reports the results of a field experiment comparing the predictive validity of two approaches to multicriteria assessments: the absolute measurement mode of AHP and the absolute measurement mode of linking pin AHP. The questioning procedures of the two differ only in that the former employs unanchored criteria weight assessments and the latter anchored criteria weight assessments. The decision task required insurance agents to respond to a mailed questionnaire in which they evaluated non-monetary incentives (contests) according to (1) the public recognition received from winning, (2) the criteria for winning and (3) the nature of the reward. There were four levels for each dimension. A between subjects design was used, with each subject receiving one of the two methods. In addition, all subjects divided 100 points among four contests and these hold-out assignments were employed as a validity check. Linking pin AHP was found to be superior to conventional AHP in this experiment, lending weight to the argument that the use of unanchored criteria weights is problematic. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal. 6 : 140–149 (1997) No. of Figures: 3. No. of Tables: 5. No. of References: 24.     

Outcome effects: The impact of decision process and outcome controllability

An ‘outcome effect’ refers to the phenomenon whereby performance evaluations of decision makers are affected by the outcomes of those decisions. Although some consider such an effect to be a judgmental error, judgment by outcomes may not be dysfunctional when the evaluator does not know how the decision maker chose his or her action. In such situations, outcomes may provide some noisy information about decision quality. We test whether an outcome effect will still occur when the decision methodology and quality are more explicitly identified. Further, we test whether outcome controllability, a previously unexplored moderator variable, will have an impact on the outcome effect. Our first experiment, using undergraduates as subjects, shows that decision quality and controllability have an impact on performance evaluations but that the ubiquitous outcome effect still obtains. These results were replicated with experienced business people, except that controllability only affected their judgments in the case of negative outcomes. Implications of these results are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bicriteria cost versus service analysis of a distribution network—a case study

In order to improve the distribution system for the Nordic countries the BASF AG considered 13 alternative scenarios to the existing system. These involved the construction of warehouses at various locations. For every scenario the transportation, storage, and handling cost incurred was to be as low as possible, where restrictions on the delivery time were given. The scenarios were evaluated according to (minimal) total cost and weighted average delivery time. The results led to a restriction to only three cases involving only one new warehouse each. For these, a more accurate model for the cost was developed and evaluated, yielding results similar to a simple linear model. Since there were no clear preferences between cost and delivery time, the final decision was chosen to represent a compromise between the two criteria. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国人的群体参照记忆效应

在自我参照效应范式中加入参照认同群体加工任务,比较了中国被试在参照中国人和参照美国人进行记忆加工时的再认率及“记得”与“知道”判断的成绩。两项实验结果一致表明,参照中国人加工的再认成绩显著高于参照美国人,表明记忆加工的认同群体参照效应,而在“记得”与“知道”指标上并无差异;参照中国人加工的再认成绩和“记得”判断成绩显著低于自我参照加工。根据个体自我、关系自我和集体自我的分类方法,自我参照效应反映了个体自我对于记忆加工的影响,群体参照效应则主要反映了集体自我的影响     

一个参与者眼中的行为遗传学史上的里程碑

行为遗传学的历史,从横切面看,就好似一个由心理学、遗传学、生物学、进化论、人类学、人口学、生物统计、社会学以及法哲学等学科组合成的万花筒。任何一对学科的演进都呈正相关。虽然任何一对学科都不至于相互否定,但是,他们各自独特的历史和人物,又使得每一对学科并不完全相似     

Predicting the Vote: Implicit Attitudes as Predictors of the Future Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters

Two studies assessed the predictive validity of implicit political attitudes in relation to voting behavior. In Study 1 , we demonstrated the validity of the adopted measure (i.e., the IAT; Greenwald, McGhee, & Schwartz, 1998 ) with a sample of voters who clearly sided with one of the opposing parties. In Study 2 , implicit political preferences were measured in a sample of undecided voters one month before the election, and actual voting behavior was assessed immediately after the election. Results demonstrated that implicit political attitudes were good predictors of future voting behaviors. These findings support the hypothesis of the presence of embryonic attitudes even in the case of those voters who at the explicit and conscious level deny any preference for one of the two opposing candidates.     

消费行为领域中的调节定向

调节定向理论(Higgins,1997)超越传统享乐主义动机,区分出“促进”和“预防”两种调节性动机系统,近年已成为消费行为领域的研究热点之一.调节定向影响着消费者购物决策整个过程,受被试因素(文化背景、自我建构)、刺激因素(信息框架、解释水平、非言语线索、商品属性)和情境因素(决策时间距离、任务操纵)的影响,通过直接作用、调节关联效应和调节匹配效应三种途径决定信息的说服效果,并且受到精细加工可能性的调节.管理者应特别注意具体营销情境中的调节定向,合理利用调节匹配效应.未来研究应关注调节投入理论、调节定向的前因变量以及同网络购物情境相结合,并探索如何削弱预防定向对营销的不利影响.     

Selection of Decision Strategies After Conscious and Unconscious Thought

It is commonly assumed that the use of simple, non‐compensatory strategies is especially pronounced in memory‐based decisions, where information costs are high. At the same time, there is evidence that in memory‐based decisions, a compensatory processing of attributes is facilitated when the processing occurs unconsciously rather than consciously. We applied a strategy classification approach—developed in research on non‐compensatory heuristics—to test two key tenets of unconscious thought theory: the capacity principle and the weighting principle. Participants memorized attribute information about cars and were subsequently either directed to or diverted from thinking consciously about their preferences between the cars (conscious versus unconscious thought). Then, participants indicated in pair‐wise choices which car they would prefer and were classified (based on their choices) as using either one of two compensatory strategies (equal weight or weighted additive) or a non‐compensatory strategy (lexicographic heuristic). In line with the capacity principle, the number of participants best described by a compensatory strategy (the equal‐weight strategy) tended to be higher after unconscious thought than after conscious thought, whereas the number of participants best described by the lexicographic heuristic tended to be lower. Inconsistent with the weighting principle, participants in the unconscious thought condition were better described by the equal‐weight strategy than by the weighted‐additive strategy. In Experiment 2, in which participants were not instructed to form an impression while learning the attribute information, the use of the equal‐weight strategy was not more prevalent after unconscious thought. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The im-possibility of secular critique: The future of religion's memory

The legacy of secular critique, with its Greek, Christian, Kantian, modernist traces, constitutes an aporetic law (or contradiction). That law is this: a critical legacy, if it is critical, can affirm and sustain itself only by trying to separate it from itself (from the very crisis that it is). The legacy or history of ‘religion’ is always a history of such critique. Such a legacy always anticipates critiquing itself, its memory (of whatever kind – racist, sexist, colonialist, nationalist). Such a legacy of critique is always a legacy of crisis. However, the crisis of such a legacy cannot be resolved, because critique, as kairos/krisis (critical/decisive moment), can admit of no resolution. Yet the (secular) history of religion, if it is ever historical, can only be a history of such aporetic critique. Such an aporetic critique will be the heritage of religion's im-possible ¹ ?1. I write the word impossible/impossibility with and without a hyphen. When I hyphenate im-possible, I do so to remain true to Derrida's use of it. The im-possible is irreducible to either possibility or impossibility. Sometimes Derrida also writes the word without hyphenating it, but he still implies such irreducibility. future. It is an im-possible future because it will always be a promise, a promise to separate it from itself, a promise that will remain always deferred, always to come. Today, the promise of this secular critique is (in) democracy with its sovereign ‘decisive’ politics. We can no longer simply critique the (future) legacy of religion, understood this way. To do so is to fulfil that legacy's own messianic wish. This is the aporetic limit of secular critique. To think at the limits of the legacy of the critique of religion is to think the very question of the (secular) history of ‘religion’ and its others, that is, ‘religions’.