Better safe than sorry: Precautionary reasoning and implied dominance in risky decisions

In four studies, student and nonstudent participants evaluated the possible outcomes of binary decisions involving health, safety, and environmental risks (e.g., whether to issue a dam‐failure evacuation order). Many participants indicated that false positives (e.g., evacuation, but no dam failure) were better than true negatives (e.g., no evacuation and no dam failure), thereby implying that the more protective action dominated the less protective action. A common rationale for this response pattern was the precautionary maxim “better safe than sorry.” Participants apparently evaluated outcomes partly on the basis of the decisions that might lead to them, in conflict with consequentialist decision models. Consistent with this explanation, the prevalence of implied dominance decreased substantially when the emphasis on decisions was reduced. These results demonstrate that an initial preference for a decision alternative can alter the evaluation of possible consequences of both the preferred alternative and a competing alternative, suggesting positive feedback loops that reinforce the initial preference. The rationality of considering the decision itself as an attribute of possible outcomes is discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between psychopathy and indirect aggression use in a noncriminal population

Psychopathy has long been associated with increased use of direct aggression and violence, especially among male inmates. Little research has, of yet, considered the relation between psychopathy and indirect forms of aggression. The current research sought to investigate the relationship between psychopathy and indirect aggression in a noncriminal sample. The results indicated that there was a strong relationship between psychopathic traits and indirect aggression, with strong correlations between indirect aggression and both factor 1 (coldheartedness) and factor 3 (impulsive antisociality). This association remained significant even after the effects of direct aggression had been controlled for. Path analysis indicated that both direct and indirect aggression was underpinned by the same psychopathy factors. This suggests that high psychopathy scorers will utilize direct and indirect aggression equally and, as such, the choice of one type of aggression over the other may be dependant on either situational factors or external moderators. Aggr. Behav. 35:408–421, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Relationships between individualism-collectivism, gender, and direct or indirect aggression: a study in China, Poland, and the US

Direct and indirect aggression were studied in college students from China (women n=122; men n=97), a highly collectivistic culture; the US (women n=137; men n=136), a highly individualistic culture; and Poland (women n=105; men n=119), a culture with intermediate levels of collectivism and individualism. Consistent with a hypothesis derived from national differences in relative levels of collectivism and individualism, both direct and indirect aggression were higher in the US than in Poland and higher in Poland than in China. The theoretical implication of these results and directions for future research were discussed.     

Trajectories and predictors of indirect aggression: results from a nationally representative longitudinal study of Canadian children aged 2-10

The purposes of this study were to model the development of indirect aggression among a nationally representative sample of 1,401 Canadian children aged 4 at T2, 6 at T3, 8 at T4 and 10 at T5, and to examine predictors of trajectory group membership from T1 (age 2) child, familial, and parenting variables. Using a semi-parametric group-based modeling approach, two distinct trajectories were identified: "increasing users" comprising of 35% of the sample and "stable low users" comprising of 65% of the sample. Using logistic regression analyses to distinguish these two groups, we found that for girls, more frequent, increasing use of indirect aggression was associated with prior prosocial and physically aggressive behavior, low SES and low parental social support at age 2. For boys, increasing use of indirect aggression was associated with prior parenting issues at age 2-inconsistency and less positive parent-child interactions. Although this study provides unique information regarding the early development of indirect aggression and its predictors, more longitudinal research is needed to fully understand its development.     

Mindsets,rationality and emotion in Multi‐criteria Decision Analysis

This paper discusses the paradigm of multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and relates it to other disciplines. It concludes that MCDA needs a larger, not smaller, emphasis on values and subjectivity to increase rationality in decision‐making. The paper bases the argument on a conciliation of ethics, philosophy, neuro‐psychology and management paradigms. It observes that the MCDA ‘mindset’ relates to consequentialism, as opposed to virtue ethics and rule based ethics. Virtues and rules play an important role in practical decision‐making, however. Findings in neuro‐psychology show that reliable decision‐making requires emotions. Elicitation of emotions is therefore required in MCDA value trade‐off processes. This leads to a concept of emotional rationality, which defines rationality as a four‐dimensional concept that includes well‐founded values and breaks radically with common notions of rationality. Virtues do not easily lend themselves to value trade‐off, but questions of virtue usually creates strong social emotions, as opposed to the feebler global emotions that may arise in connection conventional trade‐off of end values. The conclusion is that MCDA should not be shy of subjectivity and emotion, but instead put more emphasis on it to increase rationality. A part of this challenge is how to deal with questions of virtue in decision‐making. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Argumentative aspects of indirect proof

While direct proof is widely considered the paradigm of the acquisition of knowledge by deductive means, indirect proof has traditionally been criticized as showing merely that its conclusion is true and not why it is true. This paper accounts for the traditional objection by emphasizing the argumentative role in indirect proof of logical principles such as excluded middle and non-contradiction.     

Resurgence of derived stimulus relations.

Resurgence has been shown in human and nonhuman operant behavior, but not in derived relational responses. The present study examined this issue. Twenty-three undergraduates were trained to make conditional discriminations in a three-choice matching-to-sample paradigm. The training resulted in three equivalence classes, each consisting of four arbitrarily configured visual stimuli. The same 12 stimuli were then reorganized, and the conditional discrimination training was repeated such that three new classes were possible. In a subsequent test of derived relations, most subjects showed response patterns that were consistent with the altered conditional discriminations. Subjects were then exposed to conditional discrimination trials under extinction. Most subjects continued to respond consistently with the most recently reinforced conditional discrimination trials. During the next phase, subjects were exposed to symmetry and equivalence trials. Responses consistent with the most recent training produced feedback saying that the responses were incorrect, whereas other responses produced no feedback. Most subjects showed a resurgence of responding that was consistent with their earlier training. Finally, subjects were exposed to conditional discrimination trials carried out in extinction. Most subjects continued to show a resurgence of responding that was consistent with their early training.     

Effect analysis and causation in linear structural equation models

This paper considers total and direct effects in linear structural equation models. Adopting a causal perspective that is implicit in much of the literature on the subject, the paper concludes that in many instances the effects do not admit the interpretations imparted in the literature. Drawing a distinction between concomitants and factors, the paper concludes that a concomitant has neither total nor direct effects on other variables. When a variable is a factor and one or more intervening variables are concomitants, the notion of a direct effect is not causally meaningful. Even when the notion of a direct effect is meaningful, the usual estimate of this quantity may be inappropriate. The total effect is usually interpreted as an equilibrium multiplier. In the case where there are simultaneity relations among the dependent variables in tghe model, the results in the literature for the total effects of dependent variables on other dependent variables are not equilibrium multipliers, and thus, the usual interpretation is incorrect. To remedy some of these deficiencies, a new effect, the total effect of a factorX on an outcomeY, holding a set of variablesF constant, is defined. When defined, the total and direct effects are a special case of this new effect, and the total effect of a dependent variable on a dependent variable is an equilibrium multiplier.For helpful comments, I am grateful to G. Arminger, K. Bollen, W. Faris, R. m. Hauser, T. Petersen, three anonymous Psychometrikas reviewers, and the Editor. For computational assistance, I am grateful to B. D. Kim.     

THE INSULAR MOTHER: HER PROBLEMS IN PARENT-CHILD TREATMENT

Eighteen mother-child dyads were referred for psychological help because of the children's oppositional behaviors and the mothers' aversive reactions to the children. All dyads were from low income families in which the mothers reported themselves to be relatively isolated from social contact in their communities. Following a baseline phase, the mothers were trained to modify their children's oppositional behaviors through time out and a point system. Fourteen of the dyads were observed in three phases of the study: baseline, parent training or treatment, and a 1-year follow-up period. In Phases one and two, child opposition and mother aversive reactions to the children were measured twice weekly by professional observers in the home settings. During Phase three (follow-up), these observations occurred twice per month. In addition, the mothers' self-reported contacts with people in their communities were obtained immediately after each observation. Results showed significant improvement in the mother-child problems during the parent training or treatment phase. However, the problems returned to baseline levels of occurrence during the follow-up phase. The self-report findings indicated that number of mother contacts with friends was an inverse predictor of these problems. On days marked by high proportions of friend contacts, mother-child problems were lower in frequency than on days marked by low proportions of friend contacts. These correlational findings were taken to suggest that a mother's extra-family social contacts may influence her child interaction patterns at home. This possibility was discussed as a factor in the long-term success of parent training as a treatment strategy.     

Predictors of childhood trajectories of overt and indirect aggression: An interdisciplinary approach

The aim of this study was to advance our understanding of the development of aggression in boys and girls by testing a model combining insights from both evolutionary theory and developmental psychology. A sample of 744 children (348 girls) between six and 13 years old was recruited in schools with high deprivation indices. Half of the sample (N = 372; 40.1% girls) had received special educational services for behavioral and/or socio‐emotional problems. Two trajectories for overt aggression and two trajectories for indirect aggression were identified and binomial logistic regressions were used to identify environmental predictors and sex‐specific patterns of these trajectories. Results indicated that peer rejection predicted overt aggression and indirect aggression and that extraversion and male sex predicted overt aggression. The results also showed that interaction between parental practices and some child temperament traits predicted overt aggression (coercion and lack of supervision associated with extraversion or low effortful control) or indirect aggression (coercion and neglect associated with negative affect or low effortful control), and the absence of a father figure predicted high indirect aggression in girls.