Public health consequences of road traffic injuries – Estimation of seriously injured persons based on risk for permanent medical impairment

Despite the fact, that Sweden has one of the safest traffic environments in the world, a large number of people are still injured in road traffic accidents in Sweden. The core concept of the Vision Zero that was adopted by the Swedish parliament in 1997 is to decrease the number of deaths and serious injuries caused by traffic. The vision has been followed-up in terms of decreased mortality, but there was not a consensus on how the concept “seriously injured” should be measured at that time. The aim of this paper is to describe how to develop a measure to estimate the number of seriously injured people in Sweden. The results show that it is possible to estimate the health impact of road traffic accidents based on the definition of medical impairment. According to the results, 8389 people were seriously injured (permanently medical impaired more then 1%) in the road transport area in Sweden in 2013. If the number of people who had slipped or fallen down without any vehicle being involved is excluded, the number of seriously injured was around 4700. The result of the study has been included in the road safety goal for Sweden with the aim to have 25% less seriously injured people in 2020 than the average for the years 2006–2008. The results also showed that 91% of the seriously injured were transported by car, bike or by foot. The relatively high proportion of pedestrian fall accidents happening within the transport system irrespective of whether a vehicle was moving or not raises the question whether these types of accidents should be included in the reporting of formal road traffic accidents.     

Measuring Creativity with Planned Missing Data

This paper introduces a method for the assessment of creativity that relies on creativity tasks, a subjective evaluation procedure, and a planned missing data design that offers a drastic reduction in the overall implementation costs (administration time and scoring procedure). This method was tested on a sample of 149 people, using three creativity tasks as a basis. Participants were instructed to produce several ideas in each task and then to select what they considered to be their best two ideas (i.e., “Top 2” procedure; Silvia, Winterstein, Willse, Barona, et al., Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts, 2 , 2008 and 68). These ideas were then evaluated by a panel of peers and experts. Creativity ratings were analyzed with structural equations; measurement models were estimated for each task and correlations between factor-scores across the three tasks were investigated. Further insights regarding validity are provided through systematic investigation of the relationship between fluency scores, creativity ratings, intelligence tasks, self-reported idea generation abilities, and creative activities and achievements. Overall, the results support the viability of this new approach, providing evidence of convergent and discriminant validity. They are discussed in relation to past research and avenues for further extension are proposed.     

Personality in Action: Assessing Personality to Identify an ‘Ideal’ Conscientious Response Type with Two Different Behavioural Tasks

Performance on achievement tests is characterized by an interplay of different individual attributes such as personality traits, motivation or cognitive styles. However, the prediction of individuals' performance from classical self-report personality measures obtained during large and comprehensive aptitude assessments is biased by, for example, subjective response tendencies. This study goes beyond by using behavioural data based on two different types of tasks, requiring different conscientious-related response behaviours. Moreover, a typological approach is proposed, which includes different behavioural indicators to obtain information on complex personality characteristics. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology     

Modelling heterogeneity in behavioral response to peak-avoidance policy utilizing naturalistic data of Beijing subway travelers

Studies of travelers’ response behavior to transportation demand management is receiving substantial attention among researchers and transport operators in recent years. While previous studies in this area have generally assumed that the sensitivity of travelers to different factors is homogeneous and relies on survey responses, which may be prone to self-reporting errors and/or subject to behavioral incongruence. Relying on naturalistic data, this paper aims to investigate the behavioral response to pre-peak discount pricing strategy in the context of the Beijing subway with a special focus on the heterogeneity among the travelers. Anonymous smart card data from 5946 travelers before and after the introduction of a peak avoidance policy in Beijing are used to construct a latent class choice model to capture the sensitivity to different factors and the associated taste heterogeneity of travelers. Given the passive nature of the data, the model can offer more realistic outputs. The results indicate that there is substantial heterogeneity in travelers’ responses to the peak avoidance policy, and that they can be probabilistically allocated to four latent classes. For all classes of travelers, the decision to shift their departure to off-peak is affected by the monetary saving, the required change in departure time and the frequency of travel, but in different magnitudes. In particular, only two classes of travelers (who exhibit lower standard-deviation in pre-intervention departure time) show significant sensitivity to price changes indicating that the discount policies are more likely to be effective for these groups. The rest of travelers are largely price insensitive – warranting the need for non-monetary incentives as opposed to fare discounts. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to innovatively apply the LCC framework to analyze travelers’ heterogeneous behavior using large-scale smart card data without socio-demographic information. The findings can provide guidance to the subway authority in devising differential peak avoidance policies targeted for different groups of users, which are likely to be more effective than the current ‘one size fits all’ approach.     

A comparison of sources of baseline data for treatments of problem behavior following a functional analysis

It is common practice in research on the treatment of problem behavior to compare levels of targeted behaviors during treatment to levels when treatment is not in place. Some researchers use data collected as part of a multielement functional analysis as the initial baseline, whereas others collect new baseline data following completion of the functional analysis. We evaluated whether the source of baseline data influences the reliability and efficiency of decision-making. Results suggest that similar decisions are made in regard to treatment efficacy using the different sources of baseline data, but using data from a multielement functional analysis as baseline may save time. Interrater agreement was adequate, but lower for some graphs than has been observed in past studies. Several potential explanations for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Adjusting for information inflation due to local dependency in moderately large item clusters

When multiple items are clustered around a reading passage, the local independence assumption in item response theory is often violated. The amount of information contained in an item cluster is usually overestimated if violation of local independence is ignored and items are treated as locally independent when in fact they are not. In this article we provide a general method that adjusts for the inflation of information associated with a test containing item clusters. A computational scheme was presented for the evaluation of the factor of adjustment for clusters in the restrictive case of two items per cluster, and the general case of more than two items per cluster. The methodology was motivated by a study of the NAEP Reading Assessment. We present a simulated study along with an analysis of a NAEP data set.The research was supported under the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Grant No. R999G30002) as administered by the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U.S. Department of Education. This work was started when the author was at the Division of Statistics and Psychometrics at the Educational Testing Service. The author thanks Juliet Shaffer, Bob Mislevy, Eric Bradlow, three reviewers and an associate editor for their helpful comments on the paper.     

An estimate of the covariance between variables which are not jointly observed

Situations sometimes arise in which variables collected in a study are not jointly observed. This typically occurs because of study design. An example is an equating study where distinct groups of subjects are administered different sections of a test. In the normal maximum likelihood function to estimate the covariance matrix among all variables, elements corresponding to those that are not jointly observed are unidentified. If a factor analysis model holds for the variables, however, then all sections of the matrix can be accurately estimated, using the fact that the covariances are a function of the factor loadings. Standard errors of the estimated covariances can be obtained by the delta method. In addition to estimating the covariance matrix in this design, the method can be applied to other problems such as regression factor analysis. Two examples are presented to illustrate the method. This research was partially supported by NIMH grant MH5-4576     

Models for ordinal hierarchical classes analysis

This paper proposes an ordinal generalization of the hierarchical classes model originally proposed by De Boeck and Rosenberg (1998). Any hierarchical classes model implies a decomposition of a two-way two-mode binary arrayM into two component matrices, called bundle matrices, which represent the association relation and the set-theoretical relations among the elements of both modes inM. Whereas the original model restricts the bundle matrices to be binary, the ordinal hierarchical classes model assumes that the bundles are ordinal variables with a prespecified number of values. This generalization results in a classification model with classes ordered along ordinal dimensions. The ordinal hierarchical classes model is shown to subsume Coombs and Kao's (1955) model for nonmetric factor analysis. An algorithm is described to fit the model to a given data set and is subsequently evaluated in an extensive simulation study. An application of the model to student housing data is discussed.     

“Sherry’s Secret”

The case and commentaries below were developed as part of a project, Graduate Research Ethics Education, undertaken by the Association for Practical and Professional Ethics with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF Grant No. SBR 9421897 and NSF Grant No. 9817880). The project aims at training graduate students in research ethics and building a community of scientists and engineers who are interested in and capable of teaching research ethics. As part of the project, each graduate student participant develops a case for use in teaching and writes a commentary to go with the case, and then a staff member is asked to write additional commentary on the case. The case below was written in the second year of the project and was published in Research Ethics: Cases and Commentaries edited by B. Schrag, Association for Practical and Professional Ethics, Bloomington, Indiana, Vol. II (1998). Publication of these cases and commentaries will be a recurring feature of Science and Engineering Ethics.     

职业评定量表(VIESA)的信度和效度研究

根据D.E.Super的职业发展理论,职业选择的成熟与发展一般分为五个阶段,中学生正处在从探索到成熟的重要转变期。本研究以美国大学测验中心的职业分类系统为基础,以职业评定量表VIESA为工具和对象,对北京市第六十五中学的179名高中三年级学生和北京师范大学心理学系的55名二年级学生进行了施测,检验了量表的信度和效度。量表的信度指标基本在.70以上,构想效度良好,以专业满意感为效标的效标效度达到显著水平。