A Negationless Interpretation of Intuitionistic Theories. II

This work is a sequel to our [16]. It is shown how Theorem 4 of [16], dealing with the translatability of HA(Heyting's arithmetic) into negationless arithmetic NA, can be extended to the case of intuitionistic arithmetic in higher types.     

Utilizing response times in cognitive diagnostic computerized adaptive testing under the higher-order deterministic input,noisy ‘and’ gate model

Methods of cognitive diagnostic computerized adaptive testing (CD-CAT) under higher-order cognitive diagnosis models have been developed to simultaneously provide estimates of the attribute mastery statuses of examinees for formative assessment and estimates of a latent continuous trait for overall summative evaluation. In a typical CD-CAT environment, examinees are often subject to a time limit, and the examinees’ response times (RTs) for specific test items can be routinely recorded by custom-made programs. Because examinees are individually administered tailored sets of test items from the item pool, they may experience different levels of speededness during testing and different levels of risk of running out of time. In this study, RTs were considered during the item-selection procedure to control the test speededness and the RTs were treated as useful information for improving latent trait estimation in CD-CAT under the higher-order deterministic input, noisy ‘and’ gate (DINA) model. A modified posterior-weighted Kullback–Leibler (PWKL) method that maximizes the item information per time unit and a shadow-test method that assembles a provisional test subject to a specified time constraint were developed. Two simulation studies were conducted to assess the effects of the proposed methods on the quality of CD-CAT for fixed- and variable-length exams. The results show that, compared with the traditional PWKL method, the proposed methods preserve a lower risk of running out of time while ensuring satisfactory attribute estimation and providing more accurate estimates of the latent trait and speed parameters. Finally, several suggestions for future research are proposed.     

Trust and Involvement as Higher-Order Factors of General Attitudes Towards Politics. Testing a Structural Model Across 26 Democracies

Interindividual differences in how people think and feel about politics have been investigated for decades. However, the great number of attitudinal concepts that has been developed to describe these differences is likely to distract from their conceptual overlap and dimensional structure. In addition, not much is known about the cross-cultural invariance of their interrelation. We propose that attitudes towards politics can be structured by two broad higher-order factors, a factor of general political involvement and a factor of general political trust. In two studies (N₁ = 767; N₂ = 29,018), including representative samples from 26 democracies, we first conduct several confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) to show that the higher-order model is a well-fitting and parsimonious alternative to a baseline model without higher-order factors in most samples. Second, we present evidence from multigroup CFA that the overall patterns of factor loadings are the same across all 26 countries. We interpret this structural equivalence across different democracies as support for the assumption that general political involvement and general political trust reflect basic orientations towards politics that are based on (1) demands of democratic political systems and (2) universal principles in human trait structure.     

基于过程数据的问题解决能力测量及数据分析方法

问题解决能力是指在没有明显解决方法的情况下个体从事认知加工以理解和解决问题情境的能力。对问题解决能力的测量需要借助相对更复杂、更真实、具有可交互性的问题情境来诱导问题解决行为的呈现。使用虚拟测评抓取问题解决的过程数据并分析其中所蕴含的潜在信息是当前心理计量学中测量问题解决能力的新趋势。首先, 回顾问题解决能力测量方式的发展：从纸笔测验到虚拟测评。然后, 总结对比两类过程数据的分析方法：统计建模法和数据挖掘法。最后, 从非认知因素的影响、多模态数据的利用、问题解决能力发展的测量、其他高阶思维能力的测量和问题解决能力概念及结构的界定五个方面展望未来可能的研究方向。     

One’s own reasoning

Abstract

Responding to Cappelen and Dever’s claim that there is no distinctive role for perspectivality in epistemology, I argue that facts about the outcomes of one’s own reasoning processes may have a different evidential significance than facts about the outcomes of others’.     

认认知模糊程度和动机强度对有意识和无意识自我欺骗的影响

三个实验分别探讨了无意识和有意识自我欺骗存在的可能性, 以及认知模糊程度与动机强度对两种自我欺骗的影响。实验1的结果发现, 自我欺骗存在无意识和有意识两种形式; 实验2的结果发现, 随着认知模糊程度的降低, 无意识自我欺骗人数明显减少, 而有意识自我欺骗人数显著增加; 实验3的结果发现, 随着动机强度的增加, 有意识自我欺骗人数显著增多, 无意识自我欺骗人数并无显著变化。结果提示, 自我欺骗具有现实存在性, 且有两种不同形式; 两种形式自我欺骗具有不同的产生机制。     

用文字概率衡量不确定性：特征和问题

文字概率是衡量不确定性的方式之一, 即人们使用诸如“也许”、“未必”的词汇来描述特定事件发生的可能性。文字概率不同于数字概率, 主要体现在文字概率的模糊性、非概率运算性和语义特性上。这使得相对于数字概率, 用文字概率衡量不确定性既有优势也有问题, 进而对人们的不确定信息沟通和风险决策造成影响。虽然文字概率与数字概率存在特征上的差异并且人们在日常交流中偏爱文字概率, 但是大部分风险领域的研究却仅局限于数字概率, 今后有必要研究使用文字概率测量的风险决策。在已有文字概率特征研究的基础上, 还可以进一步探究其不同于数字概率的其它特征(文字/数字概率与双系统模型的联系、文字概率的跨文化差异等)及其对风险决策的影响。     

Different subjective awareness measures demonstrate the influence of visual identification on perceptual awareness ratings

We compare four subjective awareness measures in the context of a visual identification task and investigate quantitative differences in terms of scale use and correlation with task performance. We also analyse the effect of identification task decisions on subsequent subjective reports. Results show that awareness ratings strongly predict accuracy for all scale types, although the type of awareness measure may influence the reported level of perceptual awareness. Surprisingly, the overall relationship between awareness ratings and performance was weaker when participants rated their awareness before providing identification responses. Furthermore, the Perceptual Awareness Scale was most exhaustive only when used after the identification task, whereas confidence ratings were most exhaustive when used before the identification task. We conclude that the type of subjective measure applied may influence the reports on visual awareness. We also propose that identification task decisions may affect subsequent awareness ratings.     

The overall pattern of the evolution of information in dissipative,material systems

I have argued for the reality of a second law of infodynamics. That is, that the information carrying capacity in a system, as viewed from within, must continue to increase as long as the system supports internal observation. I will be concerned here with matters of scale, as well as with system senescence (rigidity produced by the asymptotic approach to maximum information storage within a system). My major categories derive from a view of system development, and are: immaturity, maturity and senescence. As an immature system grows in size, It deploys information over ever smaller scales as it transforms from the vagueness of immaturity toward ever more definite embodiment. This eventually results in an information overload, gradually eroding system adaptability as it increasingly inhibits the variety of system responses by limiting its ability to further qualify stored information;     

A Model of Tolerance

According to the naive theory of vagueness, the vagueness of an expression consists in the existence of both positive and negative cases of application of the expression and in the non-existence of a sharp cut-off point between them. The sorites paradox shows the naive theory to be inconsistent in most logics proposed for a vague language. The paper explores the prospects of saving the naive theory by revising the logic in a novel way, placing principled restrictions on the transitivity of the consequence relation. A lattice-theoretical framework for a whole family of (zeroth-order) “tolerant logics” is proposed and developed. Particular care is devoted to the relation between the salient features of the formal apparatus and the informal logical and semantic notions they are supposed to model. A suitable non-transitive counterpart to classical logic is defined. Some of its properties are studied, and it is eventually shown how an appropriate regimentation of the naive theory of vagueness is consistent in such a logic.