The rise and fall of the Pacquiao Effect: Contrastive priming and national identification

We demonstrate in a series of field and controlled experiments that assimilative and contrastive priming effects can be observed in the pattern of self‐concept change in response to a major cultural event. Study 1 used the brief implicit association test (BIAT) to measure national identification of Filipinos online across a period of time that encompassed a national sporting event. The pattern of scores support the hypothesis that while people who were ambivalent about identifying with Filipino concepts exhibited an assimilation effect (i.e. a slight rise in identification after the fight), people who already highly identified with being Filipino experienced a contrast effect (i.e. a slight drop in identification). Study 2 replicated this result five months later with a new sample and ruled out several possible alternative hypotheses. A subsequent controlled experiment and a qualitative investigation consistently supported the hypothesis that the pattern observed in the previous studies is more consistent with assimilative and contrastive priming effects rather than disidentification.     

A stochastic model of consideration set sizes

This paper proposes a new model of consideration set sizes, which relies on a stochastic modelling approach to better understand data patterns. The paper combines the Poisson distribution with the lognormal distribution proposed by Hauser and Wernerfelt (1990) to create the Poisson lognormal (PLN) model of consideration set sizes. An advantage of PLN is that it allows variance within a given individual consumer. This is a crucial factor for brand managers who wish to choose a particular market to promote their brand, as a higher within‐individual variance suggests that there is more chance for a consumer to change their consideration set size, whereas a lower within‐individual variance indicates that a consumer tends to stick to his/her consideration set size. The paper then uses 10 datasets including service, durable and fast‐moving consumer goods across four countries to validate the new model and compare it with the lognormal model. The results show that PLN gives a good fit to these data. It outperforms the lognormal model. The average mean absolute percentage error of the PLN model is 12 per cent, whereas that of the lognormal model is 26 per cent. For managerial implications, the paper proposes a better tool to help brand managers analyse the nature and intensity of competition that is facing their brands. Also, relying on its stochastic element, the proposed model can help brand managers predict future brand consideration by their consumers, as well as evaluate any change in brand consideration, caused by marketing activity such as sales promotion and advertising. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The eco-cognitive model of abduction: Ἀπαγωγή now: Naturalizing the logic of abduction

Abduction (ἀπαγωγή, in ancient Greek, often translated as “leading away” or “reduction”) is a procedure in which something that lacks classical explanatory epistemic virtue can be accepted because it has virtue of another kind: Gabbay and Woods [15] contend (GW-schema) that abduction presents an ignorance-preserving or (ignorance-mitigating) character. From this perspective abductive reasoning is a response to an ignorance-problem; through abduction the basic ignorance – that does not have to be considered a total “ignorance” – is neither solved nor left intact. Abductive reasoning is an ignorance-preserving accommodation of the problem at hand. Is abduction really ignorance-preserving? To better answer this question I will introduce (and take advantage of) an eco-cognitive model (EC-Model) of abduction. It will be illustrated that through abduction, knowledge can be enhanced, even when abduction is not considered an inference to the best explanation in the classical sense of the expression, that is an inference necessarily characterized by an empirical evaluation phase, or an inductive phase, as Peirce called it. To further deepen the eco-cognitive character of abduction a simple genealogy of logic is provided: Aristotle clearly states that in syllogistic theory local/environmental cognitive factors – external to that peculiar inferential process, for example regarding users/reasoners, are given up. Indeed, to define syllogism Aristotle first of all insists that all syllogisms are valid and contends that the necessity of this kind of reasoning is related to the circumstance that “no further term from outside (ἔξωθɛν) is needed”, in sum syllogism is the fruit of a kind of eco-cognitive immunization. At the same time Aristotle presents a seminal perspective on abduction: the second part of the article considers the famous passage in Chapter B25 of Prior Analytics concerning ἀπαγωγή (“leading away”), also studied by Peirce. I contend that some of the current well-known distinctive characters of abductive cognition are already expressed, which are in tune with the EC-Model. By providing an illustration of the role of the method of analysis and of the middle terms in Plato's dialectic argumentation, considered as related to the diorismic/poristic process in ancient geometry – also, later on, emphasized by Proclus – I maintain that it is just this intellectual heritage which informs Aristotle' Chapter B25 on ἀπαγωγή. Even if, in general, Aristotle seems to sterilize, thanks to the invention of syllogistic theory, every “dialectic” background of reasoning, nevertheless in Chapter B25 he is still pointing to the fundamental inferential role in reasoning of those externalities that substantiate the process of “leading away” (ἀπαγωγή). Hence, we can gain a new positive perspective about the “constitutive” eco-cognitive character of abduction, just thanks to Aristotle himself. Finally, the paper presents an excursus on Aristotle's enthymemes from signs, disregarded by Peirce, but extremely important to stress the Aristotelian treatment of what I have called selective abduction. A forthcoming companion paper [35] will further deepen the EC-Model of abduction stressing stricter logical aspects: the first result will be that, contrarily to the classical logical view, relevance and plausibility in abductive reasoning have to be relativized and so the epistemologically embarrassing concepts of irrelevance and implausibility exculpated: they are not always offensive to reason.     

Driving,Pseudo‐reality and the BTK: A Case Study

The significance of occupational choice, in particular those that involve driving, has not yet been studied or investigated in relation to serial murder. This paper, which adopts a case study approach, attempts to shed light on how driving as an occupation may instrumentally influence the offending behaviour of one North American serial murderer—Dennis Rader. Attention is given towards how spending such significant amounts of time driving may have held deep psychological importance for Rader, with regard to the development of his offending‐oriented fantasies. In particular, the “offending space model” is used to examine the relationship between ‘thinking and doing’. In providing this micro‐level analysis, we suggest that transient oriented occupations provide a rich array of practical advantages that may aid serial murderers in avoiding detection, whilst also holding deep psychological influence in the nurturing and development of their fantasies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

哪个测验Q矩阵更合理:基于DINA模型测验Q矩阵合理性侦查指标及其比较与应用

本研究对多个测验Q矩阵的相对合理性的比较与选用开展研究,采用Monte Carlo模拟与实证研究相结合的范式,探讨R_square、HCI、-2LL、AIC、BIC、residual、ABS_residual及本研究新开发的BIC2等八项指标在测验Q矩阵合理性侦查效果及其比较。研究发现:八项指标中,除BIC和BIC2两项指标的对测验Q矩阵相对合理性的平均正确识别率在95%以上,其余指标的平均正确识别率不足90%,整体而言,考虑样本容量及参数个数双重加权的BIC和BIC2两项指标的表现总体上优于其它几项指标;各项指标在不同Q矩阵错误类型下其正确识别率也不尽相同。     

词汇飞跃的本质:命名洞察力的实证研究

通过个案跟踪和控制实验探讨了词汇飞跃的本质。研究结果表明命名洞察力具有现实性,且词汇飞跃与命名洞察力的出现紧密相关,这在一定程度上解释了儿童词汇量快速增长的原因。命名洞察力的获得促进了词汇的快速增长,标志着儿童建立起词汇与指称之间的匹配关系。词汇飞跃之后,儿童很快建立起词语间的符号关系,并最终促进了儿童语法的发展。基于此实证结果,本研究还建构了诠释词汇飞跃本质的理论模型。     

Using Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression

The previously unknown asymptotic distribution of Cook's distance in polytomous logistic regression is established as a linear combination of independent chi‐square random variables with one degree of freedom. An exhaustive approach to the analysis of influential covariates is developed and a new measure for the accuracy of predictions based on such a distribution is provided. Two examples with real data sets (one with continuous covariates and the other with both qualitative and quantitative covariates) are presented to illustrate the approach developed.     

Properties of hypothesis testing techniques and (Bayesian) model selection for exploration‐based and theory‐based (order‐restricted) hypotheses

In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is investigated (a classical, exploration‐based set of hypotheses containing equality constraints on the means, or a theory‐based limited set of hypotheses with equality and/or order restrictions). A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of these techniques. We demonstrate that, if one has specific, a priori specified hypotheses, confirmation (i.e., investigating theory‐based hypotheses) has advantages over exploration (i.e., examining all possible equality‐constrained hypotheses). Furthermore, examining reasonable order‐restricted hypotheses has more power to detect the true effect/non‐null hypothesis than evaluating only equality restrictions. Additionally, when investigating more than one theory‐based hypothesis, model selection is preferred over hypothesis testing. Because of the first two results, we further examine the techniques that are able to evaluate order restrictions in a confirmatory fashion by examining their performance when the homogeneity of variance assumption is violated. Results show that the techniques are robust to heterogeneity when the sample sizes are equal. When the sample sizes are unequal, the performance is affected by heterogeneity. The size and direction of the deviations from the baseline, where there is no heterogeneity, depend on the effect size (of the means) and on the trend in the group variances with respect to the ordering of the group sizes. Importantly, the deviations are less pronounced when the group variances and sizes exhibit the same trend (e.g., are both increasing with group number).     

A mixture hierarchical model for response times and response accuracy

In real testing, examinees may manifest different types of test‐taking behaviours. In this paper we focus on two types that appear to be among the more frequently occurring behaviours – solution behaviour and rapid guessing behaviour. Rapid guessing usually happens in high‐stakes tests when there is insufficient time, and in low‐stakes tests when there is lack of effort. These two qualitatively different test‐taking behaviours, if ignored, will lead to violation of the local independence assumption and, as a result, yield biased item/person parameter estimation. We propose a mixture hierarchical model to account for differences among item responses and response time patterns arising from these two behaviours. The model is also able to identify the specific behaviour an examinee engages in when answering an item. A Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm is proposed for model calibration. A simulation study shows that the new model yields more accurate item and person parameter estimates than a non‐mixture model when the data indeed come from two types of behaviour. The model also fits real, high‐stakes test data better than a non‐mixture model, and therefore the new model can better identify the underlying test‐taking behaviour an examinee engages in on a certain item.