有限理性的"占优启发式"和"齐当别"决策模型的作为——当Allais悖论杠杆撬动了期望效用理论

人们在做决策时常常要受到时间或知识的限制,有时还要受到其双重限制。关于人们是如何进行风险决策,早期有期望效用理论对其加以解释,但Allais悖论对其标准化地位提出了挑战。Simon的“有限理性”观点提出后,一些研究者开始致力于开发决策的“有限理性”模型。文章讨论并比较了无限理性的期望效用理论被Allais悖论杠杆撬动之后,有限理性的“占优启发式”和“齐当别”决策模型所能做的和所不能做的。两种模型的决策标准、计算策略以及未来研究的展望也一并作了讨论。     

IPSEITY,ALTERITY, AND COMMUNITY: THE TRI‐UNITY OF MAYA THERAPEUTIC HEALING

Taking K'iche’ Maya therapeutic consultations in Guatemala as its focus, this essay explores some astonishing indigenous accounts of “healing‐at‐a‐distance” and “pain passing” between healers and wellness‐seekers. Rather than exoticizing or dismissing such reports, we attempt to understand what it means to conceive of the bodily boundaries of healers and wellness‐seekers (self and other) as sympathetically defiable and transgressable in healing. Within the moral space of K'iche’ healing, when one cares to feel, if one dares to feel with another or others, the experiential space between healer and wellness‐seeker is transformed as the alterity (otherness) of what is felt and who feels becomes (through a sympathy in ipseity) but one thing. I argue that Maya therapeutic healing may be seen as a tri‐unity, involving a movement from an enfolded illness experience (alterity) to an unfolding sickness experience (ipseity), passing through empathy until participants together arrive at sympathy (community) to experience healing.     

Do children learn the integers by induction?

According to one theory about how children learn the meaning of the words for the positive integers, they first learn that "one," "two," and "three" stand for appropriately sized sets. They then conclude by inductive inference that the next numeral in the count sequence denotes the size of sets containing one more object than the size denoted by the preceding numeral. We have previously argued, however, that the conclusion of this Induction does not distinguish the standard meaning of the integers from nonstandard meanings in which, for example, "ten" could mean set sizes of 10, 20, 30,... elements. Margolis and Laurence [Margolis, E., & Laurence, S. (2008). How to learn the natural numbers: Inductive inference and the acquisition of number concepts. Cognition, 106, 924-939] believe that our argument depends on attributing to children "radically indeterminate" concepts. We show, first, that our conclusion is compatible with perfectly determinate meanings for "one" through "three." Second, although the inductive inference is indeed indeterminate - which is why it is consistent with nonstandard meanings - making it determinate presupposes the constraints that the inference is supposed to produce.     

信息呈现顺序对公平判断形成的影响

在公平启发理论的基础上,以130名大学生为被试采用实验室实验探讨了信息呈现顺序对公平判断形成的影响。结果表明：（1）信息呈现顺序能够影响人们的公平判断——当结果适宜性信息更早获得时,结果公平对公平判断的影响要大于结果适宜性信息较晚呈现时的影响;（2）公平形式偏好对公平判断的信息效应具有调节作用,即当高偏好信息先于低偏好信息出现时,公平判断的顺序效应会得到加强;而在低偏好信息先于高偏好信息出现的情况下,公平判断的顺序效应会被减弱。     

快速节俭启发式——相关争议与简短评论

在有限理性和生态理性假设基础上,Gigerenzer教授和在他指导下的“ABC研究组”发现并提出了再认启发式、采纳最佳启发式、优先启发式、道德启发式等一系列“快速节俭启发式”。大量研究表明这些简单决策规则是节省信息的合理而高效的认知策略,但也有一些研究者对它们表示怀疑。在本文中,作者对近期关于快速节俭启发式的一般争议及围绕采纳最佳启发式、优先启发式、道德启发式展开的具体争议进行了回顾与总结,给出了简短的评论。快速节俭启发式是一个富有前景、却又布满荆棘的研究领域。要想实现宏伟的研究目标,ABC研究组尚需做出更多、更大的努力。     

Children's Understanding of the Natural Numbers’ Structure

When young children attempt to locate numbers along a number line, they show logarithmic (or other compressive) placement. For example, the distance between “5” and “10” is larger than the distance between “75” and “80.” This has often been explained by assuming that children have a logarithmically scaled mental representation of number (e.g., Berteletti, Lucangeli, Piazza, Dehaene, & Zorzi, 2010 ; Siegler & Opfer, 2003 ). However, several investigators have questioned this argument (e.g., Barth & Paladino, 2011 ; Cantlon, Cordes, Libertus, & Brannon, 2009 ; Cohen & Blanc‐Goldhammer, 2011 ). We show here that children prefer linear number lines over logarithmic lines when they do not have to deal with the meanings of individual numerals (i.e., number symbols, such as “5” or “80”). In Experiments 1 and 2, when 5‐ and 6‐year‐olds choose between number lines in a forced‐choice task, they prefer linear to logarithmic and exponential displays. However, this preference does not persist when Experiment 3 presents the same lines without reference to numbers, and children simply choose which line they like best. In Experiments 4 and 5, children position beads on a number line to indicate how the integers 1–100 are arranged. The bead placement of 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds is better fit by a linear than by a logarithmic model. We argue that previous results from the number‐line task may depend on strategies specific to the task.     

抽象概念表征的具身认知观

抽象概念是否通过感知经验来表征以及如何被感知经验表征是具身认知面临的一大问题.在抽象概念表征是否具有感知经验基础的问题上,具身认知理论认为抽象概念通过情境模拟或隐喻与感知经验发生联系.在抽象概念如何与感知经验表征发生联系的问题上,概念模拟理论强调情景或运动模拟在抽象概念表征中的直接作用;概念隐喻理论则侧重具体经验或具体经验与抽象概念之间的共同结构关系在抽象概念表征中的间接作用.未来研究应改变概念表征的稳定的心理实体观,从语言和抽象表征的关系、正常儿童和特殊群体的抽象概念表征差异入手,整合不同的具身认知观点.     

CONTEMPORARY EVOLUTIONARY THEORY AS A NEW HEURISTIC MODEL FOR THE SOCIOSCIENTIFIC METHOD IN BIBLICAL STUDIES

Abstract. Notions of uniform and gradual evolution have been replaced in some circles by biological and paleontological models that postulate that periods of rapid change punctuate long periods of evolutionary stasis. This new theory, called punctuated equilibria (or PE for short), may have implications for paradigms in scholarly disciplines other than the sciences. Whereas old evolutionary models exerted great influence upon historians, sociologists, anthropologists, and students of religion for more than a century, the new model may provide heuristic paradigms for research that correlate more adequately with the current observations of scholars. We therefore provide suggestions for deployment of this new scientific paradigm in history and anthropology. In particular, this model can explain the rise of the Israelite state and the religious ethos in the Hebrew Bible, two major concerns of today's socioscientific study of biblical materials. Thus the possibility of an overarching paradigm for the social sciences is entertained.     

Ignorance or integration: the cognitive processes underlying choice behavior

The fast‐and‐frugal heuristic framework assumes noncompensatory tools for human preferences (i.e., priority heuristic) and inferences (i.e., take the best heuristic). According to this framework, these heuristics predict choice behavior as well as model the cognitive processes underlying such behavior. The current paper presents two studies that juxtapose predictions derived from these two simple heuristics with alternative predictions derived from compensatory principles. Dependent measures that included reaction time, choice pattern, confidence level, and accuracy were better predicted by compensatory indices than by noncompensatory indices. These findings suggest that people do not rely on limited arguments only, but tend to integrate all acquired information into their choice processes. This tendency was replicated even when the experimental task facilitated the use of noncompensatory principles. We argue that the fast and frugal heuristics can predict the final outcome only under certain conditions, but even in these particular situations they are not applicable to the processes underlying choice behavior. An integrative model for choice behavior is proposed that better represents the data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.