Do Maximizers Predict Better than Satisficers?

We examine the relationship between maximizing (i.e., seeking the best) versus satisficing (i.e., seeking the good enough) tendencies and forecasting ability in a real‐world prediction task: forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. In Studies 1 and 2, participants gave probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of the tournament and completed a measure of maximizing tendencies. We found that although maximizers expected themselves to outperform others much more than satisficers, they actually forecasted more poorly. Hence, on net, they were more overconfident about their relative performance. Decompositional analyses of overall accuracy revealed that differences in forecasting abilities were primarily driven by maximizers' tendency to give more noisy estimates. In Study 3, participants played a betting task where they could choose between safe and uncertain gambles linked to World Cup outcomes. Again, maximizers did more poorly and earned less, because of greater noise in their choice‐based responses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Happiness,inspiration and the fully functioning person: Separating hedonic and eudaimonic well-being in the workplace

The study investigates the idea that feeling good and functioning well-being are regulated by two different mechanisms: hedonic and eudaimonic. At the state level it is assumed that happiness is a hedonic feeling typically experienced when life is easy or a goal is reached. Inspiration is a eudaimonic feeling typically experienced when facing challenges in the process of goal attainment. At the trait level, we assume that personal growth is connected with eudaimonic rather than hedonic mechanisms. These assumptions were confirmed with data from 465 employees of the Occupational Health Services in Norway using day reconstruction method. Multilevel analyses showed that complex work situations increased inspiration and decreased happiness. Personal growth had a stronger effect on inspiration than on happiness. Our results support the idea that pleasant feelings (hedonia) and optimal functioning (eudaimonia) have different roles to play in the regulation of behavior, and therefore need to be distinguished from one another.     

A study of emotion and reason in products and services

This study investigates the relationship between emotion, reason and perceived risk. Evidence is presented using an aggregative data set of 146 products and services which were randomly selected from the SIC (Standard Industrial Classification Codes) manual. It is demonstrated that emotional factors account for a significant and substantial portion of the variance in perceived risk even after the effect of rational factors (perceived differences between alternatives) has been taken into account. It is suggested that emotion be explicitly modelled in future conceptualisations of perceived risk. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Realistic affective forecasting: The role of personality

Affective forecasting often drives decision-making. Although affective forecasting research has often focused on identifying sources of error at the event level, the present investigation draws upon the “realistic paradigm” in seeking to identify factors that similarly influence predicted and actual emotions, explaining their concordance across individuals. We hypothesised that the personality traits neuroticism and extraversion would account for variation in both predicted and actual emotional reactions to a wide array of stimuli and events (football games, an election, Valentine's Day, birthdays, happy/sad film clips, and an intrusive interview). As hypothesised, individuals who were more introverted and neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more unpleasant emotional reactions, and those who were more extraverted and less neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more pleasant emotional reactions. Personality explained 30% of the concordance between predicted and actual emotional reactions. Findings suggest three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting, highlight the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and call for more research on realistic affective forecasts.     

消费者的权力感与冲动购买

本文探究消费者的权力感对冲动购买的影响。通过3组实验研究发现,权力感影响人们对不同类型产品的冲动购买意愿,其机制在于高(低)权力感的人面对实用品(享乐品)有更高的信息加工流畅性;进一步,当高权力感的人具有享乐目标时,他们反而在享乐品上表现出更高的冲动购买意愿。最后,本文就研究结果的理论贡献及管理启示进行了探讨,并提出了本研究的局限性和未来研究的方向。     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

The illusion of courage in social predictions: Underestimating the impact of fear of embarrassment on other people

The results of two experiments support the thesis that emotional perspective taking entails two judgments: a prediction of one’s own preferences and decisions in a different emotional situation, and an adjustment of this prediction to accommodate perceived differences between self and others. Participants overestimated others’ willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances—miming (Experiment 1) and dancing (Experiment 2)—in exchange for money. Consistent with a dual judgment model, this overestimation was greater among participants facing a hypothetical rather than a real decision to perform. Further, participants’ predictions of others’ willingness to perform were more closely correlated with self-predictions than with participants’ estimates of others’ thoughts about the costs and benefits of performing.     

How beliefs influence the relative magnitude of pleasure and pain

Loss aversion is an economic assumption about utility—people value giving up a good more than they value getting it. It also has hedonic meaning—the pain of a loss is greater in magnitude than the pleasure of a comparable gain. But value and pleasure are not necessarily identical. We test the hedonic interpretation of loss aversion in experimental markets. With hedonic forecasts, sellers imagine the pain of losing their endowment, and buyers imagine the pleasure of being endowed. With hedonic experiences, sellers rate the pleasure of having the endowment, and buyers rate the pain of being without it. Contrary to loss aversion, predicted pleasure is greater in magnitude than predicted pain, and experienced pleasure surpasses experienced pain. We show that the relative magnitude of pleasure and pain depends on beliefs about the likelihood of outcomes, as well as utilities. Surprise makes gains more pleasurable and losses more painful. With surprising gains and expected losses, pleasure can surpass pain. But when gains and losses are equally likely (or losses are surprising and gains are expected), the opposite pattern can occur. Finally, within‐group and between‐group prices are significantly correlated with hedonic experiences. Sellers who feel better with their endowments assign higher selling prices, and buyers who feel worse about the absence of endowment assign higher buying prices. Despite the fact that hedonic experiences deviate from loss aversion, these emotions predict the endowment effect. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

典型教育情境中教师的情绪预测准确性

采取师生配对研究设计,选择典型教育情境,系统考察了教师对学生情绪预测的准确性。跨样本、跨情境的三个现场研究结果表明：教师未能准确预测学生情绪,出现了明显的预测偏差。较之基本情绪,教师对学生复杂情绪的预测更不准确;较之低唤醒情绪,教师对高唤醒情绪的预测更不准确;尽管教师预测不准,但并未出现明显的高低估趋势。研究贴近教育实际,具有良好的生态学效度,并在情绪测量方法、准确性统计指标方面进行了新的探索。     

Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case‐specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.