The linear regression line as a judgmental aid in visual analysis of serially dependent A-B time-series data

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of different types and magnitudes of serial dependence (first-order moving average and autoregression) and of linear regression lines within experimental phases on the agreement between results of visual and results of statistical data analyses. The stimulus material consisted of computer-simulated A-B-design data graphs. The time series were generated with a constant variance, varying degrees of treatment effects (changes in level), five conditions of serial dependency, and with or without linear regression lines. The material was presented to three groups of student raters (n₁=52, n₂=14, n₃=17) who rated the treatment effect in the graphs on a five-point scale. These ratings were compared with statistical results (time-series analyses). Each group had to interpret 70 graphs, 35 of which had regression lines. Data were analyzed by means of two three-factor and one four-factor ANOVA and by graphic display. The linear regression lines generally enhanced the agreement between the raters' estimations and the statistical results. Serial dependency also increased the agreement between the two analysis methods. However, with strong autoregression processes in the data, the raters tended to overestimate treatment effects relative to time-series analysis.Parts of this study were presented at the World Congress on Behavior Therapy, Washington, DC, December 11, 1983. The authors wish to express their appreciation to Christoph Bonk and Willi Ecker for their extensive collaboration in data analysis and for their assistance in carrying out the study.     

Is Human Behavior Autocorrelated? An Empirical Analysis

The current review and analysis investigated the presence of serial dependency (or autocorrelation) in single-subject applied behavior-analytic research. While well researched, few studies have controlled for the number of data points that appeared in the time-series and, thus, the negative bias of the r coefficient, and the power to detect true serial dependency effects. Therefore, all baseline graphs that appeared in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA) between 1968 and 1993 that provided more than 30 data points were examined for the presence of serial dependency (N = 103). Results indicated that 12% of the baseline graphs provided a significant lag-1 autocorrelation, and over 83% of them had coefficient values less than or equal to (±.25). The distribution of the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients had a mean of .10. Subsequent distributions of partial autocorrelations at lags two through seven had smaller means indicating that as the distance between observations increases (i.e., the lag), serial dependency decreased. Although serial dependency did not appear to be a common property of the single-subject behavioral experiments, it is recommended that, whenever statistical analyses are contemplated, its presence should always be examined. Alternatives for coping with the presence of significant levels of serial dependency were discussed in terms of: (a) using alternative statistical procedures (e.g., ARIMA models, randomization tests, the Shewhart quality-control charts); (b) correcting statistics of traditional parametric procedures (e.g., t, F); or (c) using the autocorrelation coefficient as an indicator and estimate of reliable intervention effects.     

Serial position effects in visual short-term memory for words and abstract spatial patterns

Two experiments tested the effects of list postion, and retention-interval in recognition for two distinct stimulus categories in young adults. Stimulus categories were spatial abstract patterns and words presented on a computer screen. At short delay intervals recency effects predominates and at longer delay intervals a primacy effect predominates in both experiments, indicating similar basic memory processes producing the serial position functions for the two different categories of visual stimuli, but as length of retention-interval increases, memory for first list items improves for words and remains constant for abstract patterns. Recency functions are similar for both stimulus categories tested.     

Stimulus stringing by pigeons

Pigeons were trained to peck one, two, three, and then four colors in a predetermined sequence from a five-key array where, over trials, each color appeared equally often in each position of the array. Incorrect pecks resulted in a buzzer and trial termination, with the same array presented for the next trial. Correct pecks produced feedback and correct strings could produce food. All subjects performed at a high level of accuracy with no difference at asymptote between a continuous and a mixed spectral sequence as the required order. Transfer to a new set of arrays had little effect on accuracy. Errors forward in the sequence had the highest probability, followed by repeat errors, backward errors, and dark-key errors. Some arrays had a higher level of accuracy than others but a corresponding systematic variable could not be identified.     

Rasch-representable reaction time distributions

This article investigates properties of a representation based on the Rasch test model for reaction times (RT) that was proposed by Micko. Necessary and sufficient conditions for a set of RT distributions to be Rasch-representable are derived. It is shown that independent serial and independent parallel processing models cannot be reconciled with the representation. However, random extreme models compatible with the Reasch-representation exist that assume RT is determined by the longest or he shortest processing time of a random number of independent paraloel channels. Nonparametric properties of Rasch-representable distributions are derived that can be used for testing the model and for estimating its parameters. Conditions are presented for Rasch-representable distributions to form a scale family. Finally, Rasch-represent-able distributions are characterized interms of their hazard functions.For helpful discussions, we are grateful to Hans Irtel, Christoph Micko, Hartmann Scheiblechner, and Hans-Henning Schultz.     

个体完成系列回忆任务时错误类型发展的实验研究

本实验以小学一、三、五年级学生和大学生为被试,选择三种类型的汉字(普通字、形似字和同音字)为实验材料,要求被试完成系列回忆任务。结果发现：各组被试在完成系列回忆任务时,出现了四种错误,即遗漏错误、侵入错误、移动错误和重复错误。其中遗漏错误、侵入错误和移动错误随年级升高而降低;移动错误的相对比例最高,重复错误的相对比例最低。同时还发现同音字引起的错误率明显高于普通字和形似字。