Conditionals and inferential connections: toward a new semantics*

Abstract

In previous published research (“Conditionals and Inferential Connections: A Hypothetical Inferential Theory,” Cognitive Psychology, 2018), we investigated experimentally what role the presence and strength of an inferential connection between a conditional’s antecedent and consequent plays in how people process that conditional. Our analysis showed the strength of that connection to be strongly predictive of whether participants evaluated the conditional as true, false, or neither true nor false. In this article, we re-analyse the data from our previous research, now focussing on the semantics of conditionals rather than on how they are processed. Specifically, we use those data to compare the main extant semantics with each other and with inferentialism, a semantics according to which the truth of a conditional requires the presence of an inferential connection between the conditional’s component parts.     

Effectiveness in top management group meetings: The role of goal clarity,focused communication,and learning behavior

Bang, H., Fuglesang, S. L., Ovesen, M. R. & Eilertsen, D. E. (2010). Effectiveness in top management group meetings: The role of goal clarity, focused communication, and learning behavior. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 51, 253–261. To explore the relationship between goal clarity, focused communication, learning behavior, and team effectiveness (i.e., task performance, relationship quality, and member satisfaction), self‐report and observer data from eight top management groups that processed 56 agenda items during meetings were analyzed. We found that goal clarity and focused communication was positively related to team effectiveness. The effect of goal clarity on team effectiveness was partially mediated by focused communication. Speaking up when a goal was unclear increased focused communication, task performance and relationship quality. Speaking up when the discussion was off track was not related to task performance and member satisfaction, and was negatively related to relationship quality. These findings have implications for how to conduct an effective management meeting.     

Log Data Analysis with ANFIS: A Fuzzy Neural Network Approach

This study explores the use of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a neuro-fuzzy approach, to analyze the log data of technology-based assessments to extract relevant features of student problem-solving processes, and develop and refine a set of fuzzy logic rules that could be used to interpret student performance. The log data that record student response processes while solving a science simulation task were analyzed with ANFIS. Results indicate the ANFIS analysis could generate and refine a set of fuzzy rules that shed lights on the process of how students solve the simulation task. We conclude the article by discussing the advantages of combining human judgments with the learning capacity of ANFIS for log data analysis and outlining the limitations of the current study and areas of future research.     

PALEY'S iPOD: THE COGNITIVE BASIS OF THE DESIGN ARGUMENT WITHIN NATURAL THEOLOGY

The argument from design stands as one of the most intuitively compelling arguments for the existence of a divine Creator. Yet, for many scientists and philosophers, Hume's critique and Darwin's theory of natural selection have definitely undermined the idea that we can draw any analogy from design in artifacts to design in nature. Here, we examine empirical studies from developmental and experimental psychology to investigate the cognitive basis of the design argument. From this it becomes clear that humans spontaneously discern purpose in nature. When constructed theologically and philosophically correctly, the design argument is not presented as conclusive evidence for God's existence but rather as an abductive, probabilistic argument. We examine the cognitive basis of probabilistic judgments in relationship to natural theology. Placing emphasis on how people assess improbable events, we clarify the intuitive appeal of Paley's watch analogy. We conclude that the reason why some scientists find the design argument compelling and others do not lies not in any intrinsic differences in assessing design in nature but rather in the prior probability they place on complexity being produced by chance events or by a Creator. This difference provides atheists and theists with a rational basis for disagreement.     

PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a “lazy” algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge

PROBEX (PROBabilities from EXemplars), a model of probabilistic inference and probability judgment based on generic knowledge is presented. Its properties are that: (a) it provides an exemplar model satisfying bounded rationality; (b) it is a “lazy” algorithm that presumes no pre‐computed abstractions; (c) it implements a hybrid‐representation, similarity‐graded probability. We investigate the ecological rationality of PROBEX and find that it compares favorably with Take‐The‐Best and multiple regression (Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group, 1999). PROBEX is fitted to the point estimates, decisions, and probability assessments by human participants. The best fit is obtained for a version that weights frequency heavily and retrieves only two exemplars. It is proposed that PROBEX implements speed and frugality in a psychologically plausible way.     

From prevention focus to adaptivity and creativity: the role of unfulfilled goals and work engagement

ABSTRACT

Whereas promotion focus is consistently linked to high adaptivity (i.e., adjustment to changes) and creativity (i.e., generation of useful and original ideas), prevention focus is commonly associated with low adaptivity and creativity. The present study uncovers the conditions under which prevention focus may also have positive effects on adaptivity and creativity. First, we hypothesize that trait-level promotion focus positively relates to day-level adaptivity as well as creativity. More importantly, we hypothesize that trait-level prevention focus positively relates to day-level adaptivity and creativity when day-level goal fulfilment is low (i.e., two-way interactions) and that these effects are stronger when day-level work engagement is high (i.e., three-way interactions). To test our hypotheses, we conducted a daily diary survey among 209 employees from different occupational sectors, over five working days. As expected, trait promotion focus was positively related to adaptivity and creativity. Furthermore, trait prevention focus positively related to both adaptivity and creativity when day-level goal fulfilment was low andday-level work engagement was high (3-way interactions). None of the two-way interaction effects of trait prevention focus and goal fulfilment was significant. Our findings suggest that prevention focus and unfulfilled goals jointly should not only be seen as threats, but also as opportunities for adaptation and creativity.     

Postselection Inference in Structural Equation Modeling

Abstract

Most statistical inference methods were established under the assumption that the fitted model is known in advance. In practice, however, researchers often obtain their final model by some data-driven selection process. The selection process makes the finally fitted model random, and it also influences the sampling distribution of the estimator. Therefore, implementing naive inference methods may result in wrong conclusions—which is probably a prime source of the reproducibility crisis in psychological science. The present study accommodates three valid state-of-the-art postselection inference methods for structural equation modeling (SEM) from the statistical literature: data splitting (DS), postselection inference (PoSI), and the polyhedral (PH) method. A simulation is conducted to compare the three methods with the commonly used naive procedure under selection events made by L₁-penalized SEM. The results show that the naive method often yields incorrect inference, and that the valid methods control the coverage rate in most cases with their own pros and cons. Real world data examples show the practical use of the valid inference methods.     

A Closer Look at Life Goals Across Adulthood: Applying a Developmental Perspective to Content,Dynamics, and Outcomes of Goal Importance and Goal Attainability

It is well established that goals energize and direct behaviour across the lifespan. To better understand how goals are embedded in people's lives across adulthood, the present research examined life goals' content (health, personal growth, prosocial engagement, social relations, status, work), dynamics (interplay between goal importance and goal attainability), and outcomes (subjective well‐being) from a developmental perspective. We argue that people rate those goals as important and attainable that enable them to master developmental tasks, that they adapt their goals to personal capacities, and that goals predict subjective well‐being after 2 and 4 years. The sample included 973 individuals (18–92 years old, M = 43.00 years) of whom 637 participated 2 years later and 573 participated 4 years later. Goal importance and well‐being were assessed at all occasions and goal attainability at the first two occasions. Results indicated that age was negatively associated with importance and attainability of personal‐growth, status, and work goals but positively associated with importance and attainability of prosocial‐engagement goals. The association between goal importance and attainability was largely bidirectional over time; and goal attainability, rather than goal importance, was positively linked to later well‐being. Implications of these findings are discussed in light of adult lifespan development. © 2019 European Association of Personality Psychology