个人目标相关性对非临床抑郁者未来想象的影响

通过两个实验考查了非临床抑郁者未来想象的异常是否受到个人目标相关性的调节。实验1采用未来想象任务, 实验2采用可能性评估范式, 两个实验一致发现, 抑郁倾向者想象未来积极事件的异常, 受到了与个人目标相关性的调节：相对于非抑郁倾向者, 抑郁倾向者对未来与个人目标相关的积极事件的预期减弱, 而对未来与个人目标无关的积极事件的预期则没有表现出异常; 同时还发现, 抑郁倾向者表现出了对未来消极预期的普遍增强, 不受与个人目标相关性的影响。     

Why Higher Working Memory Capacity May Help You Learn: Sampling,Search, and Degrees of Approximation

Algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference, such as those based on sampling (i.e., Monte Carlo methods), provide a natural source of models of how people may deal with uncertainty with limited cognitive resources. Here, we consider the idea that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) may be usefully modeled in terms of the number of samples, or “particles,” available to perform inference. To test this idea, we focus on two recent experiments that report positive associations between WMC and two distinct aspects of categorization performance: the ability to learn novel categories, and the ability to switch between different categorization strategies (“knowledge restructuring”). In favor of the idea of modeling WMC as a number of particles, we show that a single model can reproduce both experimental results by varying the number of particles—increasing the number of particles leads to both faster category learning and improved strategy‐switching. Furthermore, when we fit the model to individual participants, we found a positive association between WMC and best‐fit number of particles for strategy switching. However, no association between WMC and best‐fit number of particles was found for category learning. These results are discussed in the context of the general challenge of disentangling the contributions of different potential sources of behavioral variability.     

Do people reason rationally about causally related events? Markov violations,weak inferences,and failures of explaining away

Making judgments by relying on beliefs about the causal relationships between events is a fundamental capacity of everyday cognition. In the last decade, Causal Bayesian Networks have been proposed as a framework for modeling causal reasoning. Two experiments were conducted to provide comprehensive data sets with which to evaluate a variety of different types of judgments in comparison to the standard Bayesian networks calculations. Participants were introduced to a fictional system of three events and observed a set of learning trials that instantiated the multivariate distribution relating the three variables. We tested inferences on chains X₁ → Y → X₂, common cause structures X₁ ← Y → X₂, and common effect structures X₁ → Y ← X₂, on binary and numerical variables, and with high and intermediate causal strengths. We tested transitive inferences, inferences when one variable is irrelevant because it is blocked by an intervening variable (Markov Assumption), inferences from two variables to a middle variable, and inferences about the presence of one cause when the alternative cause was known to have occurred (the normative “explaining away” pattern). Compared to the normative account, in general, when the judgments should change, they change in the normative direction. However, we also discuss a few persistent violations of the standard normative model. In addition, we evaluate the relative success of 12 theoretical explanations for these deviations.     

Role of Mental Simulations in the Weight Loss Process

Two experiments were conducted to verify the influence of various mental simulations on the effectiveness and persistence of weight loss processes. In study one, 40 female students (aged 19–27, M = 23) who were eager to lose weight were randomly assigned to one of four groups: positive outcome simulation, process simulations, mixed simulations (process followed by negative outcome), and control (no simulations). Students from the mixed and process simulation groups lost significantly more weight after five weeks than participants from the outcome simulation and control groups. A total of 106 females (aged 19–45, M = 29) participated in study two, in which five types of mental simulations were tested. Besides the images used in study one, process followed by positive outcome simulations and negative outcome simulations were implemented. Results showed that process followed by positive outcome simulations lead to the highest persistence in the weight loss process, while process followed by negative outcome simulations induced the greatest reduction in weight. Both studies revealed self-regulatory benefits from mental simulations in difficult and long-term personal goal attainment.     

A Test by Any Other Name: P Values,Bayes Factors,and Statistical Inference

Procedures used for statistical inference are receiving increased scrutiny as the scientific community studies the factors associated with insuring reproducible research. This note addresses recent negative attention directed at p values, the relationship of confidence intervals and tests, and the role of Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, with an eye toward better understanding these different strategies for statistical inference. We argue that researchers and data analysts too often resort to binary decisions (e.g., whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis) in settings where this may not be required.     

Team-level goal orientation: an emergent state and its relationships with team inputs,process, and outcomes

Building on recent efforts to extend the concept of goal orientation to teams, we identify team-level goal orientation as an emergent state, distinct from static trait goal orientations of team members. We reinforce this distinction by developing and testing hypotheses about team inputs, processes, and outcomes as determinants of the development of team goal orientation over time. We test our hypotheses with longitudinal data from 230 participants on 64 teams engaged in a management simulation. We find that team members’ trait goal orientations affect the team’s state goal orientation, but only in the early stages of team functioning. Team process and interim outcomes drive changes in team state goal orientation.     

Verbalization of Decision Strategies in Multiple‐Cue Probabilistic Inference

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inference, people choose between alternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially associated with an alternative's overall value. Various strategies have been proposed for probabilistic inference (e.g., weighted additive, tally, and take‐the‐best). These strategies differ in how many cue values they require to enact and in how they weight each cue. Do decision makers actually use any of these strategies? Ways to investigate this question include analyzing people's choices and the cues that they reveal. However, different strategies often predict the same decisions, and search behavior says nothing about whether or how people use the information that they acquire. In this research, we attempt to elucidate which strategies participants use in a multiple‐cue probabilistic inference task by examining verbal protocols, a high‐density source of process data. The promise of verbal data is in their utility for testing detailed information processing models. To that end, we apply protocol analysis in conjunction with computational simulations. We find converging evidence across outcome measures, search measures, and verbal reports that most participants use simplifying heuristics, namely take‐the‐best. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preference Structure Modelling for Multi-objective Decision Making: A Goal–Programming Approach

We propose a new approach for modelling preference structures in multi-objective decision-making (MODM) problems. The basic idea of the approach is to first develop PROMETHEE-influenced objective functions and then to use these to reformulate the problem as a distance-based goal–programming (GP) model. Three basic functional forms are proposed and explicit expressions are developed for them. Among other things, the expressions allow for the straightforward development of an interactive framework while keeping the information requirements from the decision maker (DM) at a minimum. An ‘automatic’ piecewise linear approximation scheme is proposed for solving the GP model. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal. 6 : 150–154 (1997) No. of Figures: 0. No. of Tables: 0. No. of References: 12.