Accounting for Time Preference in Management Decisions: An Application to Invasive Species

Managers of invasive species seek to prevent and mitigate their impact, which vary in the time horizon over which they are realized. Likewise, stakeholders vary in the time horizons they consider relevant. Agricultural impacts might reasonably be considered over two or three decades, although ecologists typically consider environmental impacts over much longer time frames. Although time preference plays a critical role in decision making, it has largely been ignored in multicriteria analyses. In this study, we examine how time has been treated in previous decision analyses of invasive species management, focusing on the differences between multicriteria and economic cost–benefit analyses. We then outline a method for incorporating time preference information into multicriteria decision analyses to ensure that criteria weights remain a faithful representation of the decision maker's preferences. To illustrate how time preference can be elicited for invasive species problems involving both monetary and nonmonetary consequences, we describe a small empirical study we conducted with a small group of experts and managers. By outlining a way to consider time preference information in multicriteria analyses of invasive species management, we hope to facilitate better decision making that is reflective of the decision maker's true preferences. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Negative cognitive emotion regulation as a predictor of adolescent heart rate variability and entropy under social stress

ABSTRACT

Background and Objectives: Negative cognitive emotion regulation (ER) strategies are particularly important within the framework of anxiety problems amongst youths and how they cope with stressful events. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between both negative and positive ER style and cardiac regulation under stressful conditions.

Design: Eighty-nine adolescents (M?=?13.31 years, SD?=?0.68, 44.94% girls) were exposed to a socially relevant stress induction protocol.

Methods: Participants’ emotion regulation strategies were assessed and their cardiac function was recorded.

Results: A negative ER style predicted heart rate (HR) entropy at the stressful stage after controlling for anxiety scores. In addition, heart rate variability reactivity and recovery and HR entropy recovery were larger (p?<?.05) in the low negative ER style group (n?=?16) than in the high negative ER style group (n?=?23).

Conclusions: Results suggest that individuals with a highly negative ER style have diminished autonomic flexibility.     

Relationship between heart rate variability and cognitive function during threat of shock

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between resting heart rate variability (HRV) and cognitive functions during threat of shock. A Continuous Performance Task and a Working Memory Task were used to measure cognitive functions. Sixty-five male participants from the Royal Norwegian Navy participated. HRV was measured during baseline, test conditions and recovery. Participants were randomly assigned into non-threat and threat groups. Based on the median split of the high frequency (HF) spectral power, groups were divided into two additional groups. Overall, the high HRV participants showed superior performance on cognitive tasks independent of non-threat or threat conditions. During threat condition the low HRV group showed improved performance. Thus, individuals with high HRV were more stress tolerant and resilient in the face of environmental changes. The results from the study might have implications with regard to performance in operational settings, but also for other fields of psychological research such as individual differences, anxiety and coping.     

Is scanning in probed order recall articulatory?

We consider how theories of serial recall might apply to other short-term memory tasks involving recall of order. In particular, we consider the possibility that when participants are cued to recall an item at an arbitrary position in a sequence, they covertly serially recall the list up to the cued position. One question is whether such “scanning” is articulatory in nature. Two experiments are presented in which the syllabic length of words preceding and following target positions were manipulated, to test the prediction of an articulatory-based mechanism that time to recall an item at a particular position will depend on the number of preceding long words. Although latency was dependent on target position, no word length effects on latency were observed. Additionally, the effects of word length on accuracy replicate recent demonstrations in serial recall that recall accuracy is dependent on the word length of all list items, not just that of target items, in line with distinctiveness assumptions. It is concluded that if scanning does occur, it is not carried out by covert or overt articulation.     

Do humans produce the speed–accuracy trade-off that maximizes reward rate?

In this paper we investigate trade-offs between speed and accuracy that are produced by humans when confronted with a sequence of choices between two alternatives. We assume that the choice process is described by the drift diffusion model, in which the speed–accuracy trade-off is primarily controlled by the value of the decision threshold. We test the hypothesis that participants choose the decision threshold that maximizes reward rate, defined as an average number of rewards per unit of time. In particular, we test four predictions derived on the basis of this hypothesis in two behavioural experiments. The data from all participants of our experiments provide support only for some of the predictions, and on average the participants are slower and more accurate than predicted by reward rate maximization. However, when we limit our analysis to subgroups of 30–50% of participants who earned the highest overall rewards, all the predictions are satisfied by the data. This suggests that a substantial subset of participants do select decision thresholds that maximize reward rate. We also discuss possible reasons why the remaining participants select thresholds higher than optimal, including the possibility that participants optimize a combination of reward rate and accuracy or that they compensate for the influence of timing uncertainty, or both.     

急性心肌梗死患者直接经皮冠状动脉介入治疗前后窦性心律振荡的临床观察

探讨急性心肌梗死（AMI）患者直接经皮冠状动脉介入（PCI）前后窦性心律振荡（HRT）的变化及意义.选择伴室性早搏的AMI患者（观察组）和无器质性心脏病的室性早搏患者（对照组）各42例,PCI前伴室早的观察组患者,用节律Ⅱ导联记录室早的心电图,PCI后2周时观察组及对照组均记录24h动态心电图（AECG）,计算其震荡初始（TO）和震荡斜率（TS）,并行心脏彩色多普勒超声检查,测定左室射血分数（LVEF）.结果观察组PCI后2周时和对照组LVEF分别为：（59.1＆#177;7.5）%和（61.3＆#177;8.4）%.观察组PCI前TO显著升高,TS显著降低,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;观察组PCI后2周TO较前降低,TS较前升高,但和对照组相比差异仍有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;观察组PCI后2周时和对照组左室射血分数（LVEF）相比无差异.提示AMI患者HRT减弱,PCI后2周HRT改善但和观察组相比仍有统计学意义,提示AMI患者PCI后早期仍存在心脏自主神经功能下降,HRT可作为评价AMI患者预后的一个指标.     

Benefits of belonging: Experimental manipulation of social inclusion to enhance psychological and physiological health parameters

Objective: Acute changes in social belonging are important triggers for alterations in health and well-being, yet research has emphasised the negative effects of ‘exclusion’ at the expense of evaluating the potentially positive effects of ‘inclusion’. This study examined the impact of acute belonging on physiological and psychological outcomes.

Design and main outcome measures: A healthy population (N?=?138) were randomly allocated to ‘included’ or ‘excluded’ conditions. Condition-dependent differences in pre/during-task heart rate and pre/post-task self-reports of negative/positive mood, and social self-esteem, were assessed.

Results: Included participants showed decreased heart rate and negative mood, and increased social self-esteem. No inclusion-related change in positive mood was shown. An increase in heart rate was observed in excluded participants though no changes in negative/positive mood or social self-esteem were shown. Shifts in social self-esteem acted as a mechanism through which inclusion/exclusion impacted upon negative and positive mood alterations. Results remained significant in presence of covariates (sex, global self-esteem, rumination and social anxiety).

Conclusion: Findings suggest that acting to enhance belonging through ‘inclusion’ resulted in adaptive physiological and psychological outcomes. Neutral and potentially protective responses were observed in the immediate aftermath of ‘exclusion’. Self-esteem served as one route through which these effects were transmitted.     

Book review

Abstract

Physical Activity & Behavioral Medicine. James f. Sallis Neville Owen Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1999. 210 Pages. ISBN 0-8039-5996-6, cloth UK£33.00; ISBN 0-8039-5997-4, paper UK£15.99.