Finding a serial burglar's home using distance decay and conditional origin–destination patterns: a test of empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation in the Hague

Can we tell where an offender lives from where he or she commits crimes? Journey-to-crime estimation is a tool that uses crime locations to tell us where to search for a serial offender's home. In this paper, we test a new method: empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation. It differs from previous methods because it utilises an ‘origin–destination’ rule in addition to the ‘distance decay’ rule that prior methods have used. In the new method, the profiler not only asks ‘what distances did previous offenders travel between their home and the crime scenes?’ but also ‘where did previous offenders live who offended at the locations included in the crime series I investigate right now?’. The new method could not only improve predictive accuracy, it could also reduce the traditional distinction between marauding and commuting offenders. Utilising the CrimeStat software, we apply the new method to 62 serial burglars in The Hague, The Netherlands, and show that the new method has higher predictive accuracy than methods that only exploit a distance decay rule. The new method not only improves the accuracy of predicting the homes of commuters—offenders who live outside their offending area—it also improves the search for marauders—offenders who live inside their offending area. After presenting an example of the application of the technique for prediction of a specific burglar, we discuss the limitations of the method and offer some suggestions for its future development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial patterns of Indian serial burglars with relevance to geographical profiling

Earlier studies in Western countries have shown remarkably consistent spatial patterns in serial offenders, mainly for serious crimes notably serial killing and rape, but also (although with less clear patterns) for burglary. The universality of such spatial patterns are of theoretical interest in contributing to our understanding of criminal spatial behaviour and have practical significance for the possibility of using geographic profiling in developing countries. As such, burglars in India provide a particularly interesting test of the generality of the observed spatial consistencies. Information was therefore obtained on the offence location choices of 30 burglars, committing 150 offences in the Rourkela and Keonjhar districts of India. The home to crime distances were compared with those from developed countries, revealing similar but slightly shorter distances. In addition, the domocentricity of criminal spatial activity, reflected in the ‘marauder’ model (Canter & Gregory 1994) was tested through examination of the Canter Circle hypothesis, the mean interpoint distances (as they related to average distances from home), and the home base ‘search costs’ using a geographical profiling system (Dragnet). Overall the study found that the spatial patterns of the sample of Indian Burglars were not very different from their counterparts in the UK, North America and Australia, showing that the areas in which an offender is active tend to be shaped by, and, relatedly, close to, where he or she lives, irrespective of the part of the world in which this is. These results suggest that geographical profiling systems such as Dragnet would be productively used on the Indian sub‐continent. The results also contribute to our understanding of possible universalities in offender spatial behaviour. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of a linkage analysis as evidence in the conviction of the Newcastle serial murderer,South Africa

The linking of a series of crimes to one individual has always been problematic, especially in the absence of eyewitness or forensic evidence. During the investigation, another means whereby this can be done is through linkage analysis. Yet a linkage analysis can also play a role during the trial of a serial offender. This paper examines the use of a linkage analysis report as evidence during the trial of the Newcastle serial murderer in South Africa. The linkage analysis examined the circumstances of the crime, modus operandi, and signature behaviour of the offender, to come to the conclusion that all the offences were committed by one individual, despite the lack of eyewitness or forensic evidence linking the suspect to two of the four incidents. This evidence was admitted by the court and the presiding officer concurred that the accused was guilty of committing the crimes during the third and fourth incidents. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Photovoice and pre-service geography teachers' visual sense of place

This study researched the development of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) of pre-service geography teachers (PGTs), adopting a place-based approach. The study planned and implemented a photovoice-based semester class on visualization, happiness and sense of place. Data were collected through photographs taken by PGTs, including their narratives and reflections and analyzed through grounded theory. The geographical place where PGTs felt happiest was the first-place they lived as a child. Participants' affective feelings of place happiness appeared attached to objects that reflected mobility such as a cellular phone or a transportation means, such as bus.     

Multidimensional Latent Classification of ‘Street Robbery’ Offences

In a recent study of personal robbery, commissioned by the Home Office in the UK, a qualitative typology of robbery offences was proposed based on the approach used by the offender to commit the crime, consisting of four approach types: Blitz, Confrontation, Con, and Snatch. Conceptual inspection of the typology reveals that these proposed types may be hypothetically demarcated as the product of two latent dimensions: interaction (between the offender and the victim) and violence (used to threaten/harm the victim). The current paper utilises crime scene information from 72 incarcerated male offenders convicted of ‘street’ robbery to test this hypothesis. Convergent statistical analysis was utilised to test the structure of Smith's typology first using multidimensional scaling (MDS) and then principal component analysis (PCA). MDS and PCA analyses provided convergent support for the existence of the four robbery styles and the latent dimensions of interaction and violence. Implications of Smith's typological structure and latent behavioural dimensions on the conceptualisation and classification of robbery offences are discussed within the existing literature on ‘street’ robbery. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Use of Hermeneutics in the Criminological Interpretation of Forensic Documents: A Case Study

This study explored the use of hermeneutics to retrospectively construct a criminological assessment. The data are archival records on a convicted woman (Mrs B: not real name) for the murder of her husband. The data are analyzed using a Ricoeurian narrative identity analysis framework. The results indicate that Mrs B has a history of violent behaviour and is manipulative and does not accept responsibility for her behaviour, suggesting that hermeneutic inquiry is appropriate for criminology assessments.     

Classifying homicide offenders and predicting their characteristics from crime scene behavior

A theoretical distinction between instrumental and expressive aggression was used in analyzing offender characteristics and their associations with crime scene actions in Finnish homicides. Twenty-one variables reflecting the offenders' criminal activity, previous relationships with intimates and victims, and general social and psychological adjustment were derived from files of single-offender/single-victim homicides occurring between 1980 and 1994 (n = 502). Additionally, three variables describing post-offense actions and police interview behavior were included. A multidimensional scaling procedure was used to investigate the interrelationships between the variables. A distinction between expressive and instrumental characteristics was observable in the empirical structure, which was divided into three subthemes of Instrumental, Expressive: Blood, and Expressive: Intimate. Associations between the characteristics with five previously identified subthemes of crime scene actions were computed. In addition, the subthemes of crime scene actions were related to post-offense actions and police interview behavior, with Expressive themes being associated with less denial as well as a greater likelihood of surrendering and confession. The practical usefulness for police investigations and theoretical implications of the results are discussed.     

Prediction of serial perpetrator residence: Part I—Induction of models utilising spatio-temporal routing functions and investigative information

This article presents a new framework for the geographic profiling problem which assesses and integrates the travel environment of road networks; beliefs and assumptions formed through the investigation process about the perpetrator; and information derived from the analysis of evidence. Each piece of information is evaluated in conjunction with functions which gather real-time travel information, including both time and distance of likely perpetrator travel, and is then used to update prior beliefs about the potential base of operation of the perpetrator. A novel approach was developed to generate geographic profiles given different amounts of information about the perpetrator: a centrographic strategy for when only the victim dump sites are known; a perpetrator trek strategy for instances where both victim encounter and dump sites are available; and a formal evidence-driven model which leverages and integrates available information and evidence relevant to the case for the development of a geographic profile. A follow-up article will evaluate these models through a comprehensive application to the Yorkshire Ripper investigation (see Part II).     

Choice of Weapon or Weapon of Choice? Examining the Interactions between Victim Characteristics in Single‐victim Male Sexual Homicide Offenders

As most studies report that the majority of sexual homicide offenders (SHOs) prefer to kill with their own hands, research has largely neglected to examine the choice of weapon by these offenders. The US Supplementary Homicide Reports show that although a large number of SHOs murder their victim using personal weapons (e.g. bare hands and manual or ligature strangulation), the majority use an alternative weapon (e.g. edged weapons, contact weapons, and firearms). The present study hypothesises that the choice of weapon is in part influenced by victim characteristics. To identify specific combinations and interactions between victim characteristics and the choice of a personal or edged weapon during the commission of a sexual homicide, a combination of exhaustive chi‐square automatic interaction detector and conjunctive analysis is used on a sample of 2,472 single‐victim male SHOs from a 36‐year period of Supplementary Homicide Report data (1976–2011). Findings show that SHOs choose their weapon according to some victim characteristics. Implications of the findings are discussed in light of police suspect prioritisation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introduction to the special issue on Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling

In this special issue of the Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, we explore a Bayesian approach to journey-to-crime (JTC) estimation with an emphasis on the statistical models used. The approach conceptualises the probability that an offender lives at one location as the product of the probability distribution from a JTC estimate along with the probability distribution of other offenders who committed crimes in the same locations. The Bayesian approach is appropriate as the second part is conditional on the first part. The introduction gives the background behind the methodology and suggests how future improvements can be made by integrating new information. Finally, the papers in the special issue are introduced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.