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41.
Tobias Ebert Friedrich M. Gtz Martin Obschonka Leor Zmigrod P. Jason Rentfrow 《Journal of personality》2019,87(5):1039-1055
42.
Thomas E. Dearden 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2018,15(2):187-199
Using basic probability theory, estimates of the characteristics of the average homicide victim are calculated using the notion of disjoint probability. The assumption of disjoint events (e.g., the victim's race bears no effect on the offender's weapon choice) is then tested empirically using the Uniform Crime Report‐Supplementary Homicide Report. Exploratory results suggest that many demographic and situational characteristics taken together are only slightly more related than chance. Put simply, the average profile of homicide victims portrayed by the media becomes less likely as demographic variables are added. A survey was conducted to test whether individuals conjoined these characteristics, thinking they were more likely to occur together. Consistent with the conjunction fallacy, many participants overestimated the likelihood that certain demographic or situational characteristics will occur together, and some overestimated it to a mathematically impossible degree. These two experiments showcase the difficulty in displaying statistical profiling and how it affects the public's perception of offenders. 相似文献
43.
C. Gabrielle Salfati Alicia L. Bateman 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2005,2(2):121-144
To examine if serial homicide offenders are consistent across their crimes, a model was developed empirically that could be used to distinguish between crimes that were instrumental and those that were expressive. The first known three offences in each series of 69 US serial homicides committed by 23 offenders, were examined and the instrumental and expressive themes determined. Three models were then explored that test for consistency across these themes. The most liberal model was found to classify all of the offences effectively and to reveal complete consistency across the three crimes for all offenders. The implications of these results for offender profiling and further study of serial homicide are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
44.
Sudhanshu Sarangi Donna Youngs 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2006,3(2):105-115
Earlier studies in Western countries have shown remarkably consistent spatial patterns in serial offenders, mainly for serious crimes notably serial killing and rape, but also (although with less clear patterns) for burglary. The universality of such spatial patterns are of theoretical interest in contributing to our understanding of criminal spatial behaviour and have practical significance for the possibility of using geographic profiling in developing countries. As such, burglars in India provide a particularly interesting test of the generality of the observed spatial consistencies. Information was therefore obtained on the offence location choices of 30 burglars, committing 150 offences in the Rourkela and Keonjhar districts of India. The home to crime distances were compared with those from developed countries, revealing similar but slightly shorter distances. In addition, the domocentricity of criminal spatial activity, reflected in the ‘marauder’ model (Canter & Gregory 1994) was tested through examination of the Canter Circle hypothesis, the mean interpoint distances (as they related to average distances from home), and the home base ‘search costs’ using a geographical profiling system (Dragnet). Overall the study found that the spatial patterns of the sample of Indian Burglars were not very different from their counterparts in the UK, North America and Australia, showing that the areas in which an offender is active tend to be shaped by, and, relatedly, close to, where he or she lives, irrespective of the part of the world in which this is. These results suggest that geographical profiling systems such as Dragnet would be productively used on the Indian sub‐continent. The results also contribute to our understanding of possible universalities in offender spatial behaviour. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
45.
A theoretical distinction between instrumental and expressive aggression was used in analyzing offender characteristics and their associations with crime scene actions in Finnish homicides. Twenty-one variables reflecting the offenders' criminal activity, previous relationships with intimates and victims, and general social and psychological adjustment were derived from files of single-offender/single-victim homicides occurring between 1980 and 1994 (n = 502). Additionally, three variables describing post-offense actions and police interview behavior were included. A multidimensional scaling procedure was used to investigate the interrelationships between the variables. A distinction between expressive and instrumental characteristics was observable in the empirical structure, which was divided into three subthemes of Instrumental, Expressive: Blood, and Expressive: Intimate. Associations between the characteristics with five previously identified subthemes of crime scene actions were computed. In addition, the subthemes of crime scene actions were related to post-offense actions and police interview behavior, with Expressive themes being associated with less denial as well as a greater likelihood of surrendering and confession. The practical usefulness for police investigations and theoretical implications of the results are discussed. 相似文献
46.
When offender profiles have been presented as evidence in court, although in a few cases they may have been accepted initially, they have invariably been excluded on appeal. But with the evolution of Investigative Psychology as a systematic science with a broader remit than producing ‘offender profiles’, a framework for contributions to investigations has emerged over the last 20 years that maps out the rich potential range of contribution to the legal process. This considers not only the drawing of inferences about offenders from their actions (profiling), but also examination of testimony and what psychological processes may indicate whether it has been distorted deliberately or accidentally. Further, the decision-making processes, especially as part of the investigation that gave rise to evidence presented are also subject to behavioural scrutiny. This special issue of The Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling provides examples of these contributions as a basis for encouraging debate about links between Investigative Psychology and the courtroom. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
47.
Ned Levine 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2009,6(3):167-185
In this special issue of the Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, we explore a Bayesian approach to journey-to-crime (JTC) estimation with an emphasis on the statistical models used. The approach conceptualises the probability that an offender lives at one location as the product of the probability distribution from a JTC estimate along with the probability distribution of other offenders who committed crimes in the same locations. The Bayesian approach is appropriate as the second part is conditional on the first part. The introduction gives the background behind the methodology and suggests how future improvements can be made by integrating new information. Finally, the papers in the special issue are introduced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
48.
Richard Block Wim Bernasco 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2009,6(3):187-211
Can we tell where an offender lives from where he or she commits crimes? Journey-to-crime estimation is a tool that uses crime locations to tell us where to search for a serial offender's home. In this paper, we test a new method: empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation. It differs from previous methods because it utilises an ‘origin–destination’ rule in addition to the ‘distance decay’ rule that prior methods have used. In the new method, the profiler not only asks ‘what distances did previous offenders travel between their home and the crime scenes?’ but also ‘where did previous offenders live who offended at the locations included in the crime series I investigate right now?’. The new method could not only improve predictive accuracy, it could also reduce the traditional distinction between marauding and commuting offenders. Utilising the CrimeStat software, we apply the new method to 62 serial burglars in The Hague, The Netherlands, and show that the new method has higher predictive accuracy than methods that only exploit a distance decay rule. The new method not only improves the accuracy of predicting the homes of commuters—offenders who live outside their offending area—it also improves the search for marauders—offenders who live inside their offending area. After presenting an example of the application of the technique for prediction of a specific burglar, we discuss the limitations of the method and offer some suggestions for its future development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
49.
The linking of a series of crimes to one individual has always been problematic, especially in the absence of eyewitness or forensic evidence. During the investigation, another means whereby this can be done is through linkage analysis. Yet a linkage analysis can also play a role during the trial of a serial offender. This paper examines the use of a linkage analysis report as evidence during the trial of the Newcastle serial murderer in South Africa. The linkage analysis examined the circumstances of the crime, modus operandi, and signature behaviour of the offender, to come to the conclusion that all the offences were committed by one individual, despite the lack of eyewitness or forensic evidence linking the suspect to two of the four incidents. This evidence was admitted by the court and the presiding officer concurred that the accused was guilty of committing the crimes during the third and fourth incidents. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
50.
Alasdair M. Goodwill Skye Stephens Sandra Oziel Jamie Yapp Nicola Bowes 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2012,9(1):93-109
In a recent study of personal robbery, commissioned by the Home Office in the UK, a qualitative typology of robbery offences was proposed based on the approach used by the offender to commit the crime, consisting of four approach types: Blitz, Confrontation, Con, and Snatch. Conceptual inspection of the typology reveals that these proposed types may be hypothetically demarcated as the product of two latent dimensions: interaction (between the offender and the victim) and violence (used to threaten/harm the victim). The current paper utilises crime scene information from 72 incarcerated male offenders convicted of ‘street’ robbery to test this hypothesis. Convergent statistical analysis was utilised to test the structure of Smith's typology first using multidimensional scaling (MDS) and then principal component analysis (PCA). MDS and PCA analyses provided convergent support for the existence of the four robbery styles and the latent dimensions of interaction and violence. Implications of Smith's typological structure and latent behavioural dimensions on the conceptualisation and classification of robbery offences are discussed within the existing literature on ‘street’ robbery. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献