Cluster Analysis Examination of Serial Killer Profiling Categories: A Bottom‐Up Approach

Two studies explored the validity of dichotomous classification of organised/disorganised serial killers and the four typologies (visionary, mission, hedonistic, and power/control) adopted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Tables documenting crime scene criteria were devised consisting of 50 typifying different crime scenes (Study 1) and 48 crime scenes (taken from the 50 crime scene criteria) with a further 10 motive‐based crime scene criteria (Study 2). Adopting content analysis, crime scenes depicted for 40 (Study 1) and 40 (Study 2) serial killers using secondary sources of data were dichotomously coded for the presence or absence of the crime scene criteria. These data were inputted for agglomerative hierarchical cluster using Ward's method as the clustering algorithm. Differences in the nature of clusters were found for male and female serial killers; however, there was no empirical support for the organised/disorganised classifications or the four typologies. The ‘bottom‐up’ approach resulted in clusters from the different crime scene criteria that helped to understand how these criteria were associated within the serial killer cohort considered. It is concluded that the resulting clusters in both studies support the notion of there being an underlying organised element to most serial murder and that serial murders differ according to the nature of disorganised crime scene criteria present. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Advancement of Criminal Profiling Methods in Faceted Multidimensional Analysis

The current study seeks to advance the faceted multidimensional scaling (termed FMDS) procedure used in much of the investigative psychology research. To this end, recent research on street robbery by Goodwill and colleagues will be utilised to illustrate the effectiveness of a facet scale method for offender profiling. Four FMDS themes of street robbery (Con, Blitz, Confrontation and Snatch) were revealed by the crossing of two underlying axial facets: the offenders' level of violence and interaction with the victim. The facet scale method, utilising offenders' axial facet scores, was compared to previous count, proportional and centroid classification methods in the prediction of offender criminal histories. Utilising logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses, the axial facet scale method was found to significantly outperform the qualitatively based dominant theme classification methods that typically employ angular and radial facets for FMDS interpretation. Implications for the use of axial facet scales within FMDS analysis for offender profiling research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The consistency of inconsistency in serial homicide: patterns of behavioural change across series

Linkage analysis is a crucial part of the investigative process when faced with a possible series of related offences. Establishing behavioural consistency (i.e., offender's behaviours consistently present across the series) is at the core of linkage. Recent empirical studies have found little evidence of consistency looking at either individual or groups of behaviours in serial homicide. It is argued that behavioural changes are rooted in the changing cognitive strategies that offenders use to reach their ultimate goal (i.e. the commission of multiple homicides). Factors that could account for these changes include learning, situational factors, loss of control, and changes in the offender's fantasy. Patterns of behavioural change have been identified in serial crimes, such as rape. However, no empirical studies have looked at patterns of behavioural change in serial homicide. The present study examined patterns of consistency and change using a combination of thematic and behavioural subgroup approaches that use Multidimensional Scaling. Thematic differentiation indicative of behavioural manifestations of cognitive strategies was found in all three examined subgroups: planning, wounding, and offender–victim interaction, and patterns of change within these subgroups provided support for the above theories. Looking at behavioural patterns rather than individual behaviours, may be a more fruitful way of examining consistency in serial homicide, and could have significant implications for linkage analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风水理论中的地理思维

风水理论作为我国古人生产生活的依据之一,具有盲目迷信和不科学的地方,但在另一方面,却是古代人民在自然环境中长期形成的生产生活经验的积累,是古代人民伟大智慧的凝结,包含着丰富的地理学思维和合理的科学内核。本文认为:风水理论产生和发展于人类对地理环境的认识;风水理论充分关注地理学中的人地关系议题,体现了古人的地域综合体的思维;风水学从不同尺度来考察人类周围的环境,体现了地理学的尺度观念。     

UK and Spanish stranger sexual offenders crime scene behaviours and previous convictions: A cross-cultural comparison

International comparisons of previous convictions (PC) and crime scene behaviours (CSB) of stranger sexual offences can inform offender profiling strategies; especially the degree to which pragmatic models cross validate across countries. The present study compared PC and CSB of 474 UK and 418 Spanish cases. CSB and PC were analysed using Chi-square. UK stranger sexual offenders displayed a higher proportion of all CSB analysed. UK offenders also had a significantly higher proportion of PC with the exception of violence offences. There were no significant differences in sexual pre-convictions. In both the UK and Spain the CSB ‘reference to the police’ was significantly association with the PC ‘Criminal damage’ no other similar significant associations were found. Explanations for these findings include differences between the countries in regards to: legislation, crime recording processes, data coding processes, with additional consideration of any cultural, environmental and contextual factors.     

Geographical profiling incorporating neighbourhood-level factors using spatial interaction modelling

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.     

Behavioural Investigative Advice: Assistance to Investigative Decision‐making in Difficult‐to‐detect Murder

This paper considers the role of a Behavioural Investigative Adviser (BIA) in assisting with the decision‐making of a Senior Investigating Officer (SIO) in difficult‐to‐detect murder investigations. It outlines the need for transparent evidence‐based decision‐making from both the SIO and the BIA. The paper then details a piece of relevant, applied research that can assist in this end. The research utilised a pragmatic psychology approach to analyse 312 detected murder cases from the Serious Crime Analysis Section database. Some significant patterns relating what is known about the offence at different stages of an investigation and inferences regarding the offender were found, indicating that certain offence information can lead to some reliable predictions and these can be refined as more information becomes available. However, the findings also indicate that base rate frequencies and a ‘best‐guess’ methodology may be as, if not more, useful than more complex statistical techniques when providing advice to investigations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rape and sexual assault in investigative psychology: the contribution of sex offenders' research to offender profiling

Research on sex offenders has mainly guided clinical practice for risk assessment and therapeutic intervention. However, the current scientific knowledge on these offenders and their crimes is, in many aspects, of great importance to criminal investigations. Consequently, there is a need to build bridges between investigative psychology and the research being conducted on sex offenders. Four areas of research on sex offenders that have clear implications to investigative psychology can be identified: (1) the consistency or ‘crime‐switching’ patterns of sex offenders; (2) the recidivism patterns of different types of sex offenders; (3) the police response to specific victim characteristics; and (4) the A → C equation of sexual assaults. This paper argues for a need to establish a dialogue between these two fields of research so that knowledge about sex offenders keeps growing whilst being able to inform policing practices in investigative psychology. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.