An evaluation and comparison of claims made in behavioural investigative advice reports compiled by the National Policing Improvements Agency in the United Kingdom

This study examined the content of a contemporary sample of behavioural investigative advice reports produced by the National Policing Improvements Agency (NPIA), formally known as the National Centre for Policing Excellence, and compared this sample with previous offender‐profiling samples reported by Alison, Smith, Eastman, and Rainbow in 2003. Forty‐seven reports written in 2005 were content analysed. The reports contained 805 claims, although 96% of the claims contained grounds for their claim, only 34% had any formal support or backing. In terms of confirmability, 70% of the claims were verifiable. However, only 43% were falsifiable, in that they could be objectively measured post‐conviction. Analysis also showed that there were differences when comparing the different types of claims made (i.e. behavioural, temporal) and the different types of reports compiled by the NPIA (i.e. behavioural assessment report, linking report, etc.) Comparisons show that there is a very large positive difference between the contemporary behavioural investigative advice sample and previous non‐NPIA expert advice in terms of the substantiveness of their arguments. Contemporary NPIA behavioural investigative advice has clearer boundaries around the claims made and presents material in a more coherent and evidence‐based format than previous expert advice. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cluster Analysis Examination of Serial Killer Profiling Categories: A Bottom‐Up Approach

Two studies explored the validity of dichotomous classification of organised/disorganised serial killers and the four typologies (visionary, mission, hedonistic, and power/control) adopted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Tables documenting crime scene criteria were devised consisting of 50 typifying different crime scenes (Study 1) and 48 crime scenes (taken from the 50 crime scene criteria) with a further 10 motive‐based crime scene criteria (Study 2). Adopting content analysis, crime scenes depicted for 40 (Study 1) and 40 (Study 2) serial killers using secondary sources of data were dichotomously coded for the presence or absence of the crime scene criteria. These data were inputted for agglomerative hierarchical cluster using Ward's method as the clustering algorithm. Differences in the nature of clusters were found for male and female serial killers; however, there was no empirical support for the organised/disorganised classifications or the four typologies. The ‘bottom‐up’ approach resulted in clusters from the different crime scene criteria that helped to understand how these criteria were associated within the serial killer cohort considered. It is concluded that the resulting clusters in both studies support the notion of there being an underlying organised element to most serial murder and that serial murders differ according to the nature of disorganised crime scene criteria present. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Advancement of Criminal Profiling Methods in Faceted Multidimensional Analysis

The current study seeks to advance the faceted multidimensional scaling (termed FMDS) procedure used in much of the investigative psychology research. To this end, recent research on street robbery by Goodwill and colleagues will be utilised to illustrate the effectiveness of a facet scale method for offender profiling. Four FMDS themes of street robbery (Con, Blitz, Confrontation and Snatch) were revealed by the crossing of two underlying axial facets: the offenders' level of violence and interaction with the victim. The facet scale method, utilising offenders' axial facet scores, was compared to previous count, proportional and centroid classification methods in the prediction of offender criminal histories. Utilising logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses, the axial facet scale method was found to significantly outperform the qualitatively based dominant theme classification methods that typically employ angular and radial facets for FMDS interpretation. Implications for the use of axial facet scales within FMDS analysis for offender profiling research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The consistency of inconsistency in serial homicide: patterns of behavioural change across series

Linkage analysis is a crucial part of the investigative process when faced with a possible series of related offences. Establishing behavioural consistency (i.e., offender's behaviours consistently present across the series) is at the core of linkage. Recent empirical studies have found little evidence of consistency looking at either individual or groups of behaviours in serial homicide. It is argued that behavioural changes are rooted in the changing cognitive strategies that offenders use to reach their ultimate goal (i.e. the commission of multiple homicides). Factors that could account for these changes include learning, situational factors, loss of control, and changes in the offender's fantasy. Patterns of behavioural change have been identified in serial crimes, such as rape. However, no empirical studies have looked at patterns of behavioural change in serial homicide. The present study examined patterns of consistency and change using a combination of thematic and behavioural subgroup approaches that use Multidimensional Scaling. Thematic differentiation indicative of behavioural manifestations of cognitive strategies was found in all three examined subgroups: planning, wounding, and offender–victim interaction, and patterns of change within these subgroups provided support for the above theories. Looking at behavioural patterns rather than individual behaviours, may be a more fruitful way of examining consistency in serial homicide, and could have significant implications for linkage analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

UK and Spanish stranger sexual offenders crime scene behaviours and previous convictions: A cross-cultural comparison

International comparisons of previous convictions (PC) and crime scene behaviours (CSB) of stranger sexual offences can inform offender profiling strategies; especially the degree to which pragmatic models cross validate across countries. The present study compared PC and CSB of 474 UK and 418 Spanish cases. CSB and PC were analysed using Chi-square. UK stranger sexual offenders displayed a higher proportion of all CSB analysed. UK offenders also had a significantly higher proportion of PC with the exception of violence offences. There were no significant differences in sexual pre-convictions. In both the UK and Spain the CSB ‘reference to the police’ was significantly association with the PC ‘Criminal damage’ no other similar significant associations were found. Explanations for these findings include differences between the countries in regards to: legislation, crime recording processes, data coding processes, with additional consideration of any cultural, environmental and contextual factors.     

Geographical profiling incorporating neighbourhood-level factors using spatial interaction modelling

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.     

Behavioural Investigative Advice: Assistance to Investigative Decision‐making in Difficult‐to‐detect Murder

This paper considers the role of a Behavioural Investigative Adviser (BIA) in assisting with the decision‐making of a Senior Investigating Officer (SIO) in difficult‐to‐detect murder investigations. It outlines the need for transparent evidence‐based decision‐making from both the SIO and the BIA. The paper then details a piece of relevant, applied research that can assist in this end. The research utilised a pragmatic psychology approach to analyse 312 detected murder cases from the Serious Crime Analysis Section database. Some significant patterns relating what is known about the offence at different stages of an investigation and inferences regarding the offender were found, indicating that certain offence information can lead to some reliable predictions and these can be refined as more information becomes available. However, the findings also indicate that base rate frequencies and a ‘best‐guess’ methodology may be as, if not more, useful than more complex statistical techniques when providing advice to investigations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rape and sexual assault in investigative psychology: the contribution of sex offenders' research to offender profiling

Research on sex offenders has mainly guided clinical practice for risk assessment and therapeutic intervention. However, the current scientific knowledge on these offenders and their crimes is, in many aspects, of great importance to criminal investigations. Consequently, there is a need to build bridges between investigative psychology and the research being conducted on sex offenders. Four areas of research on sex offenders that have clear implications to investigative psychology can be identified: (1) the consistency or ‘crime‐switching’ patterns of sex offenders; (2) the recidivism patterns of different types of sex offenders; (3) the police response to specific victim characteristics; and (4) the A → C equation of sexual assaults. This paper argues for a need to establish a dialogue between these two fields of research so that knowledge about sex offenders keeps growing whilst being able to inform policing practices in investigative psychology. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual differences in distance travelled by serial burglars

This paper uses police data on a sample of 41 serial burglars committed in the city of St John's, Canada and surrounding areas, to examine individual differences in distances travelled. In accord with findings from studies in other locations, results show that serial burglary is a localised activity. Differences between serial burglars in distances they travel are related to the burglars' age, method of transportation and value of property stolen. These results are discussed in terms of existing explanations of distances that serial burglars travel to select targets and implications for police decision‐making. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decay functions and criminal spatial processes: geographical offender profiling of volume crime

Although it is now well established across diverse samples that the frequency of offending ‘decays’ as distance from the home/base increases, it remains unclear what form of decay function best characterises this relationship. Different forms of decay function reflect different patterns and rates of decrease in the likelihood of offending as distance from the home/base increases. These different patterns imply rather different underlying psychological processes. Therefore, considerations of the particular function characterising distance decay elucidate explanations of offender spatial behaviour. To bring to light the possible psychological and behavioural processes inherent in offending distance decay, the present study examined the fit of logarithmic, negative exponential, and quadratic decay functions to the distribution of the distances travelled to offend by a sample of 70 prolific burglars from the UK. It is argued that these functions are consistent with the operation of perceptual processes of magnitude estimation, friction or effort effects, and the influences of cost‐benefit assessments, respectively. The results indicate that offending distance decay patterns most closely fit the logarithmic function, consistent with Stevens' perceptual processes of distortion in magnitude estimation, whilst not ruling out additional processes relating to the increased effort required in travelling greater distances to offend. Because most geographical profiling systems are built upon the distance decay function, the impact of utilising the different forms of function on the accuracy of geographic profiles was also assessed utilising ‘search cost’ calculations. The results showed little impact of applying different decay functions. Thus, whilst the decay function does have important theoretical implications for understanding offender spatial behaviour, it is noted that the particular variant used does not significantly impact on the effectiveness of geographical profiling systems as they currently exist. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.