Finding a serial burglar's home using distance decay and conditional origin–destination patterns: a test of empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation in the Hague

Can we tell where an offender lives from where he or she commits crimes? Journey-to-crime estimation is a tool that uses crime locations to tell us where to search for a serial offender's home. In this paper, we test a new method: empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation. It differs from previous methods because it utilises an ‘origin–destination’ rule in addition to the ‘distance decay’ rule that prior methods have used. In the new method, the profiler not only asks ‘what distances did previous offenders travel between their home and the crime scenes?’ but also ‘where did previous offenders live who offended at the locations included in the crime series I investigate right now?’. The new method could not only improve predictive accuracy, it could also reduce the traditional distinction between marauding and commuting offenders. Utilising the CrimeStat software, we apply the new method to 62 serial burglars in The Hague, The Netherlands, and show that the new method has higher predictive accuracy than methods that only exploit a distance decay rule. The new method not only improves the accuracy of predicting the homes of commuters—offenders who live outside their offending area—it also improves the search for marauders—offenders who live inside their offending area. After presenting an example of the application of the technique for prediction of a specific burglar, we discuss the limitations of the method and offer some suggestions for its future development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dissimilarity cumulation as a procedure correcting for violations of triangle inequality

Dissimilarity on a finite set is a function that assigns to every pair of points (stimuli) a nonnengative number vanishing if and only if the two points are identical. For any two points in a finite set, the minimum of the length of all finite chains connecting these points is a quasimetric (i.e., it satisfies all metric axioms except for symmetry). The computation of the quasimetric from a dissimilarity can be viewed as a data-analytic procedure of “correcting” dissimilarities into (quasi)distances, an alternative to nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling: the procedure simply replaces the dissimilarity between any two points with the shortest length across all chains of points connecting them. It is shown in this paper that this procedure can be equivalently described as a series of recursive corrections for violations of the triangle inequality across all triples of points considered in an arbitrary order.     

Confucianism and the Lack of the Development of the Self Among Korean American Women

In this essay, I will examine how the societal attribution of women's subordinate role in society influences their psychological health and results in the undesirable effect of broken relationships. I will argue that (1) Confucianism has been a major influence in creating a subordinate role for women in Korea; (2) the societal expectation of women's subordinate role contributes to the arrest in the development of the self in women; and (3) the lack of the development of the self among women brings further broken relationships by causing in women grandiosity, low self-esteem, and a pervasive sense of shame.     

“They’ve Always Been Good Mothers”: An Ethnographic Study of Early Childhood Intervention in Dublin

Randomized Controlled Trials are considered the “gold standard” in the evaluation of early childhood intervention (ECI) initiatives. These trials, however, do not illustrate the internal mechanisms of the intervention. Ethnography is better positioned to observe the long-term, intimate relationships among the actors involved and the process of program delivery. Preparing for Life is one of the few ECI initiatives to be studied with a combination of both methodologies. In so doing and looking ethnographically at the “logical model” illustrates how it does not reflect the “good relationship,” which is better explained with a blend of relational theories.