Bayesian estimation and testing of structural equation models

The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameters can be computed from these samples. If the prior distribution over the parameters is uninformative, the posterior is proportional to the likelihood, and asymptotically the inferences based on the Gibbs sample are the same as those based on the maximum likelihood solution, for example, output from LISREL or EQS. In small samples, however, the likelihood surface is not Gaussian and in some cases contains local maxima. Nevertheless, the Gibbs sample comes from the correct posterior distribution over the parameters regardless of the sample size and the shape of the likelihood surface. With an informative prior distribution over the parameters, the posterior can be used to make inferences about the parameters underidentified models, as we illustrate on a simple errors-in-variables model.We thank David Spiegelhalter for suggesting applying the Gibbs sampler to structural equation models to the first author at a 1994 workshop in Wiesbaden. We thank Ulf Böckenholt, Chris Meek, Marijtje van Duijn, Clark Glymour, Ivo Molenaar, Steve Klepper, Thomas Richardson, Teddy Seidenfeld, and Tom Snijders for helpful discussions, mathematical advice, and critiques of earlier drafts of this paper.     

Exploring Decision Making Around Therapist Self‐Disclosure in Cognitive Behavioural Therapy

Background

Therapist self‐disclosure (TSD) usage varies greatly among different psychotherapy orientations. Anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that there are reasons for its judicious use, and a small number of researchers have proposed guidelines for how TSD should be used to help therapists across psychotherapy models make decisions around disclosure. However, there is almost no literature specifically exploring how cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) practitioners make decisions around employing TSD within the CBT framework.

Objective

This study aimed to explore how experienced CBT practitioners make decisions around TSD.

Method

In‐depth qualitative interviews were conducted with six clinical psychologists who were trained and experienced in CBT, and the interviews were analysed thematically.

Results

There were two overarching themes in terms of how they made decisions to self‐disclose: (A) the rules for TSD use, which included sub‐themes (a) it must have a clear purpose, (b) it must fit, (c) the therapist must maintain boundaries, and (d) the therapist must always reflect on his/her use of TSD; and (B) how they use TSD, which included subthemes of (a) using it as a tool for change and (b) using it to manage the therapeutic relationship.

Conclusion

Participants’ decisions on whether or not to self‐disclose were strongly influenced by the CBT model, and this process went beyond what is suggested in the transtheoretical literature. Understanding this process may lead to the development of CBT‐specific guidelines for making TSD‐related decisions.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and the Treatment of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Where Counseling and Neuroscience Meet

There is increasing evidence to support the biological basis of mental disorders. Subsequently, understanding the neurobiological context from which mental distress arises can help counselors appropriately apply cognitive behavioral therapy and other well‐researched cognitive interventions. The purpose of this article is to describe the neurobiological context underlying the formation and treatment of posttraumatic stress disorders, a mental disorder frequently encountered by counselors, from a cognitive therapy framework.     

Enhanced Cognitive Behavior Therapy: A Single Treatment for All Eating Disorders

Eating disorders are serious mental illnesses affecting a significant proportion of women and a smaller number of men. Approximately half of those with an eating disorder (ED) will not meet the criteria for anorexia or bulimia nervosa, and will be diagnosed with an eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS). Until recently, there were no recommended treatments for EDNOS. This article provides an overview of enhanced cognitive behavior therapy, a validated treatment for all forms of EDs.     

高校多媒体教学环境下的教-学-学习绩效关系的建模与分析

本文是在先前建立的多媒体教学环境下教师授课、学生学习和学习绩效的3个因素结构模型基础上,采用路径建模技术,建立了多媒体教学环境下教一学一学习绩效关系模型。基于对该路径模型的分析,获得如下结论：（1）多媒体教学中影响因素的主导作用是沿着学习者认知加工过程中的信息流而展开的;（2）对于学生在课堂中的信息加工,影响最大的因素是教师授课时对学生的能力培养,影响为其次的因素是教师的授课技术;（3）课件的良好界面信息设计对学生的知识掌握起重要作用;（4）诸如授课速度过快、信息量过大等多媒体教学中的易现问题会增加学生的外在认知负荷而降低学习效果;（5）在多媒体教学中,教师与学生都要注意学生学习风格来更好地进行教学或学习。