Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias

“Hindsight Bias” is a person's tendency, after learning about the actual outcome of a situation or the correct answer to a question, to distort a previous judgment in the direction of this new information. In the literature, hindsight bias has been mostly discussed as an inevitable result of a “judgment under uncertainty.” We think that the hindsight bias is due to memorial as well as inferential processes: Whereas certainty about the recollection is memorial and concerns the recollective experience, certainty at the time of the judgment is inferential and concerns the individual's metaknowledge (“I know that I knew that”). In two experiments participants' feelings of certainty were measured indirectly (Koriat & Goldsmith, 1996) by giving participants the option of leaving those questions unanswered about which they felt uncertain. This free-report option was offered to half of the participants in the first estimate phase (concerning time of judgment) and to the second half in the memory phase (concerning the recollective experience). At the end of the session, participants were presented again with the questions they had skipped and were now required to answer them. This procedure allowed us to compare the amount of hindsight bias for the skipped, uncertain items to the spontaneously answered, certain ones. Both experiments demonstrated that the hindsight bias is a result of the interaction of both uncertainty and certainty.     

Cross-fertilization versus transmission: Recommendations for developing a bidirectional approach to psychotherapy dissemination research

Psychotherapy researchers are increasingly engaged in collaborations with clinical practitioners and mental health administrators. Each party brings its own perspectives, values, and agendas to bear in these encounters. Viable research—practice collaborations depend on understanding and negotiating some of the tensions in these relationships. In this article, we discuss the contexts that prevail for various participants in a psychotherapy dissemination study as well as the values, goals, costs, and benefits related to research participation. This article is a collaboration among the researchers, mental health administrators, therapists, and clients involved in an ongoing treatment dissemination study. Our recommendations for research—practice collaborations are based on our experiences and dialogues over the course of this study.     

交流 诠释 求同尊异——关于生命伦理学的跨文化研究

生命伦理学的跨文化研究,重在诠释不同文化传统伦理观念的历史轨迹,尊重道德的多元性,同时寻求共同点,以促进人类之间的合作和交流。不同伦理思想的交流中形成的某种共识和趋同,是社会共荣和医学发展的需要。否定伦理观念的多元和把伦理观念多元绝对化,都无益于人类健康事业的繁荣。     

Predicting Resource Utilization by Children with Serious Emotional Disturbance and Their Families

Our study represents a rural case management agency's use of its data to aid in its transition from being funded by federal grant funds to self-sustainment. We wanted to learn if some characteristics of those children served could predict the resources needed to serve them. We analyzed data on 90 children and adolescents living in a rural community. Using multiple regression analysis we found that CAFAS total and CBCL total problem scores predicted Medicaid reimbursements but not flexible funds spending or case management hours. History of psychiatric hospitalization, however, predicted flexible funds spending and case management hours. Using one-way ANOVA and post hoc analysis we found that the staff members' assessments of each child and family's level of service needs were reflected in differences in mean CAFAS total scores, Medicaid reimbursements and case management hours, but not CBCL total problem scores or flexible funds spending.     

Effects of Organizational Level and Gender on Stress in the Workplace

Occupational stress adversely affects productivity, absenteeism, and job turnover, and contributes to health-related problems. The effects of organizational level and gender on the specific sources of occupational stress assessed by the Job Stress Survey (JSS) were evaluated for a heterogeneous sample of 1,791 working adults (860 males, 931 females) employed in 2 industrial companies and a large state university. Significant main or interactive effects of organizational level and/or gender were found for the JSS Item Index, Severity and/or Frequency scores of 29 of the 30 JSS items. Organizational level effects were both more numerous and larger in magnitude than gender effects. Employees at higher organizational levels reported that they experienced stress more often while making critical decisions and dealing with crisis situations than did workers at lower levels, for whom inadequate salary and lack of opportunity for advancement were more stressful. For males, work stress was more strongly related to concerns about their role in the power structure of an organization, whereas female employees reported experiencing more severe stress when there was a conflict between job requirements and family relationships.     

Introduction: Attaining a New Stage

The current issue of The Journal of Adult Development addresses one of the threads of adult development, namely stage and stage change. There are four major forms of adult developmental study that can be identified: positive adult development, directionless change, stasis, and decline. The first of the four forms, positive adult developmental processes, is divided into at least six areas of study: hierarchical complexity (orders, stages), knowledge, experience, expertise, wisdom, and spirituality. The topic of this special issue, stage and stage change, is therefore part of the study of positive adult developmental processes. Finally, the manner in which these topics are studied both in this special issue and elsewhere can be characterized in terms of three broad classifications (Commons & Bresette, 2000, Commons & Miller, 1998) for the acquisition of knowledge and the verification of truth in general. These classifications include analytic, experiential, and empirical means to reach truth.     

Can Collective Responsibility for Perpetrated Evil Persist over Generations?

In the first part of the paper an argument is developed to the effect that (1) there is no moral ground for individual persons to feel responsible for or guilty about crimes of their group to which they have in no way contributed; and (2) since there is no irreducibly collective responsibility nor guilt at any time, there is no question of them persisting over time. In the second part it is argued that there is nevertheless sufficient reason for innocent individual members of a group (that persists over time) to take on responsibility and guilt for the evil other (earlier) members have committed. The reason depends on the acceptability of a particular psychological theory of personal identity.     

International Human Rights and National Discretion

This paper argues that the EuropeanCourt of Human Rights couldserve as a model for an international court ofhuman rights to be builtupon the United Nations Committee on HumanRights. It argues that theconcerns states might have over the surrenderof a significant portion oftheir national sovereignity might be lessenedif such an internationalcourt were to incorporate the margin ofappreciation doctrine employed bythe European Court of Human Rights. Thisdoctrine is intended to respectthe customs and traditions of sovereign statesin dealing with humanrights issues, while maintaining that somerights such as the right not tobe tortured will be considered as basic andwill stand independently ofthe customs and traditions of sovereignstates.     

The Nazi Heritage and Gender Identity

This paper explores the impact of Nazi ideas and values from education in Napola schools of the National Socialist regime on the development of gender identity during late childhood and adolescence. Difficulties in this realm are illustrated by means of biographical material from a study performed at the Sigmund-Freud Institut in Frankfurt. In this study, interviews were conducted with former Napola students, their children, and grandchildren. A clinical example focuses on the theme of haircutting typical of Napola trainees and the impact this had on the development of a man's gender identity. The examination of two further generations showed that the haircut played an important role in their lives and caused difficulties in the development of masculinity, as well as femininity.     

当代情绪发展理论述评

本文从情绪的定义、情绪发展的实质、情绪在个体发展中的作用等方面,评述了当代比较有影响的情绪发展理论不同的情绪发展观。这些情绪发展理论有生物观点、机能主义观点、认知观点、组织观点和社会文化观点。