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51.
This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias — an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for this phenomenon but the main debate focuses on whether it is caused by the behaviour of those supplying betting markets (bookmakers) or of the demand‐side agents in these markets (bettors) . This study analyses a new data source which offers detailed information for a large sample of recent UK horseraces on decision‐making behaviour within the parimutuel and the parallel bookmaker‐based betting markets. The results offer strong evidence for the existence of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias in bookmaker‐based markets, with a corresponding absence of such an effect in the parimutuel case. These results offer support for the view that the origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias lie principally in the decisions of bookmakers rather than in the decisions of bettors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
52.
A Bayesian approach for simultaneous optimization of test-based decisions is presented using the example of a selection decision for a treatment followed by a mastery decision. A distinction is made between weak and strong rules where, as opposed to strong rules, weak rules use prior test scores as collateral data. Conditions for monotonicity of optimal weak and strong rules are presented. It is shown that under mild conditions on the test score distributions and utility functions, weak rules are always compensatory by nature. The authors are indebted to Wilbert Kallenberg for his valuable comments and to Jan Gulmans for providing the data for the empirical example. The names of the authors are alphabetical; they are equally responsible for the contents of this paper. 相似文献
53.
Fantino E 《Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior》2008,89(1):125-127
Behavior analysis has been thriving by continuing to make important theoretical and empirical contributions to a wide array of problems, as well as by contributing to interdisciplinary research. Applied research in behavior analysis is flourishing. Despite these positive signs there may be an erosion of support for basic research in animal learning and behavior, including behavior analysis. Increased attention by behavior analysts to fundamental problems in areas of cognition, including decision-making and language, may help behavior analysis to evolve more successfully. An experimental analysis of gambling may prove particularly fruitful. 相似文献
54.
Leslie Shaw 《International Journal of Applied Psychoanalytic Studies》2005,2(3):271-294
In 1998, the Long Term Capital Management Investment Trading Company, the richest and most prestigious firm of its kind in the world, began to lose hundreds of millions of dollars within weeks as its excessively high‐risk trading positions turned against it. A consortium of financial institutions, led by the Federal Reserve, was formed to keep the firm from insolvency. If Long Term Capital went bankrupt it was thought to be possible that the world could be thrown into bankruptcy. This paper reviews the history of the firm's management and, in particular, its founder, John Meriwether. The author makes the case that Meriwether's management style was analogous to the role of the hypnotist. Next, the author portrays the history of the firm and the grandiosity that led to its demise within the framework of The Uncanny. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
55.
Participants were trained and tested to select stimuli of differing physical quantities in the presence of 2 color contextual cues for more than and less than. Following more than and less than relational training, participants allocated the majority of their responses to the slot machine that shared formal properties of color with the contextual cue for more than, despite the identical payout probabilities of the slot machines. 相似文献
56.
We report three studies in which methodologies from psychophysics are adapted to investigate context effects on individual financial decision‐making under risk. The aim was to determine how the range and the rank of the options offered as saving amounts and levels of investment risk influence people's decisions about these variables. In the range manipulation, participants were presented with either a full range of choice options or a limited subset, while in the rank manipulation they were presented with a skewed set of feasible options. The results showed that choices are affected by the position of each option in the range and the rank of presented options, which suggests that judgments and choices are relative. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
57.
Brian J. Zikmund‐Fisher 《决策行为杂志》2004,17(5):365-379
Research on willingness to make marginal investments (e.g., the escalation and sunk cost literatures) has often focused on project completion decisions, such as the “radar‐blank plane.” This paper discusses a fundamentally different type of marginal investment decision, that of couples deciding whether to continue infertility treatment in the face of repeated failures. Two experiments based on this context show that when people face multiple independent chances to achieve a valued goal but are unsure about chances of success, premature quitting or “de‐escalation” is the norm. Repeated negative feedback appears to induce individuals to see each successive failure as more and more diagnostic. As a result, even a short series of failed attempts evokes beliefs that future attempts will also fail. These emergent expectations of failure, generated by causal attribution processes, associative learning, and/or discounting of ambiguous information, appear very compelling and induce people to forgo profitable marginal investments. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
58.
During laboratory gambling tasks participants are not typically allowed to wager their personal wealth. Instead, wealth is simulated by telling participants they have been endowed with game tokens that will be later exchanged for money. Past research indicates that participants undervalue game tokens following this procedure, which leads to elevated risk taking compared to procedures that add saliency or realism to the monetary payoff. A between-subjects experiment tested whether showing a picture of money during the endowment instructions and repeating token-money exchange information during the session influenced participants' preference for risky and riskless options. The results showed no effect of the money picture. However, repeated token-money exchange information significantly decreased risk taking. Together with past studies, this finding suggests that endowment procedures might establish greater value in game tokens, and therefore better simulate personal wealth, when the eventual exchange between game tokens and money is made more salient to participants. 相似文献
59.
The decision whether to explore new alternatives or to choose from familiar ones is implicit in many of our daily activities. How is this decision made? When will deviation from optimal exploration be observed? The current paper examines exploration decisions in the context of a multi‐alternative “decisions from experience” task. In each trial, participants could choose a familiar option (the status quo) or a new alternative (risky exploration). The observed exploration rates were more sensitive to the frequent outcome from choosing new alternatives than to the average outcome. That is, the implicit decision whether to explore a new alternative reflects underweighting of rare events: Over‐exploration was documented in “Rare Disasters” environments, and insufficient exploration was evident in “Rare Treasures” environments. In addition, the results reveal a decrease in exploration of new alternatives over time even when it is always optimal and some exploration even when it is never reinforcing. These results can be captured with models that share a distinction between “data collection” and “outcome‐driven” decision modes. Under the data collection mode, the decision maker collects information about the environment, to be used in future choices. Under the outcome‐driven mode, the decision maker relies on small samples of previous experiences with familiar versus unfamiliar alternatives, before the selection of a specific alternative. The predictive value of a two‐parameter “explorative sampler” quantification of these assumptions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
60.
Marcia L. Spetch 《决策行为杂志》2014,27(2):146-156
Whether buying stocks or playing the slots, people making real‐world risky decisions often rely on their experiences with the risks and rewards. These decisions, however, do not occur in isolation but are embedded in a rich context of other decisions, outcomes, and experiences. In this paper, we systematically evaluate how the local context of other rewarding outcomes alters risk preferences. Through a series of four experiments on decisions from experience, we provide evidence for an extreme‐outcome rule, whereby people overweight the most extreme outcomes (highest and lowest) in a given context. As a result, people should be more risk seeking for gains than losses, even with equally likely outcomes. Across the experiments, the decision context was varied so that the same outcomes served as the high extreme, low extreme, or neither. As predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains, but only when the risky option potentially led to the high‐extreme outcome. Similarly, people were more risk averse for relative losses, but only when the risky option potentially led to the low‐extreme outcome. We conclude that in risky decisions from experience, the biggest wins and the biggest losses seem to matter more than they should. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献