Statistical inference for multiple choice tests

Finite sample inference procedures are considered for analyzing the observed scores on a multiple choice test with several items, where, for example, the items are dissimilar, or the item responses are correlated. A discrete p-parameter exponential family model leads to a generalized linear model framework and, in a special case, a convenient regression of true score upon observed score. Techniques based upon the likelihood function, Akaike's information criteria (AIC), an approximate Bayesian marginalization procedure based on conditional maximization (BCM), and simulations for exact posterior densities (importance sampling) are used to facilitate finite sample investigations of the average true score, individual true scores, and various probabilities of interest. A simulation study suggests that, when the examinees come from two different populations, the exponential family can adequately generalize Duncan's beta-binomial model. Extensions to regression models, the classical test theory model, and empirical Bayes estimation problems are mentioned. The Duncan, Keats, and Matsumura data sets are used to illustrate potential advantages and flexibility of the exponential family model, and the BCM technique.The authors wish to thank Ella Mae Matsumura for her data set and helpful comments, Frank Baker for his advice on item response theory, Hirotugu Akaike and Taskin Atilgan, for helpful discussions regarding AIC, Graham Wood for his advice concerning the class of all binomial mixture models, Yiu Ming Chiu for providing useful references and information on tetrachoric models, and the Editor and two referees for suggesting several references and alternative approaches.     

Probability-of-coverage tolerance intervals for the beta binomial

True score tolerance intervals, which are designed to cover a chosen proportion of the conditional distribution of true scores given an observed score, are suggested as alternatives to true score confidence intervals. Using large sample theory, a tolerance interval estimator for the beta binomial is derived. An example indicates that with moderate sample sizes, tolerance intervals with high probability of coverage will not be much wider than when the two beta true score parameters are known.The author acknowledges valuable comments from Richard Sawyer.Most work was completed while the author was at the American College Testing Program.     

编制中国人个性测量表(CPAI)的意义与程序

从1990年开始中国科学院心理研究所与香港中文大学心理系合作,编制“中国人个性测量表”(CPAI)。编制方法严格按照个性测验编制程序进行。共分四个步骤,一、建立正常与病态个性量表的框架。二、构成量表的项目。三、测量表的最后确定。四、量表的标准化工作。编制出的测量表共包括22个正常个性量表,12个病态个性量表及2个效度量表,共510个项目。经实践检验与统计分析,证明该测量表具有一定的信度与效度。     

Evidence of improved fluid management in patients receiving haemodialysis following a self-affirmation theory-based intervention: A randomised controlled trial

Objective: Haemodialysis patients are at risk of serious health complications; yet, treatment non-adherence remains high. Warnings about health risks associated with non-adherence may trigger defensive reactions. We studied whether an intervention based on self-affirmation theory reduced resistance to health-risk information and improved fluid treatment adherence.

Design: In a cluster randomised controlled trial, 91 patients either self-affirmed or completed a matched control task before reading about the health-risks associated with inadequate fluid control.

Outcome measures: Patients’ perceptions of the health-risk information, intention and self-efficacy to control fluid were assessed immediately after presentation of health-risk information. Interdialytic weight gain (IDWG), excess fluid removed during haemodialysis, is a clinical measure of fluid treatment adherence. IDWG data were collected up to 12 months post-intervention.

Results: Self-affirmed patients had significantly reduced IDWG levels over 12 months. However, contrary to predictions derived from self-affirmation theory, self-affirmed participants and controls did not differ in their evaluation of the health-risk information, intention to control fluid or self-efficacy.

Conclusion: A low-cost, high-reach health intervention based on self-affirmation theory was shown to reduce IDWG over a 12-month period, but the mechanism by which this apparent behaviour change occurred is uncertain. Further work is still required to identify mediators of the observed effects.     

Beyond Secondary Gain

Research suggests that a conscious desire for external illness gain can have internal unconscious effects, in that subjective symptoms can be heightened by external reward. This mechanism can be explained on the basis of Freud’s later work, in which he mentions two types of resistance, which resemble each other — the need to be punished and the need to be ill. The concept of the need to be ill can explain why in modern society, with its established systems of support, regulations, and procedures that are conducive to illness behavior, patients who consciously strive for external gain can experience strengthening feelings of being ill and even deterioration without being aware of this process.     

Dissociations in performance on novel versus irregular items: single-route demonstrations with input gain in localist and distributed models

Four pairs of connectionist simulations are presented in which quasi-regular mappings are computed using localist and distributed representations. In each simulation, a control parameter termed input gain was modulated over the only level of representation that mapped inputs to outputs. Input gain caused both localist and distributed models to shift between regularity-based and item-based modes of processing. Performance on irregular items was selectively impaired in the regularity-based modes, whereas performance on novel items was selectively impaired in the item-based modes. Thus, the models exhibited double dissociations without separable processing components. These results are discussed in the context of analogous dissociations found in language domains such as word reading and inflectional morphology.     

多巴胺系统多基因与青少年攻击行为的U型关系：母亲消极教养的调节作用

多巴胺活性与攻击相关的脑功能活动呈倒U型关系。本研究对1044名汉族青少年(初次测评时M age=13.32±0.49岁,50.2%女生)的攻击行为进行间隔一年的两次测评,采用多基因累积分范式考察多巴胺系统的多基因功能积分与青少年攻击行为间的关系以及母亲消极教养的调节作用。结果发现,多巴胺系统多基因累积分二次项与母亲消极教养交互影响两个时间点的青少年攻击行为：在较高母亲消极教养条件下,携带较多或较少低多巴胺活性相关等位基因的青少年表现出高水平的攻击行为,呈U型关系;在较低母亲消极教养条件下,多基因累积分二次项与青少年的攻击行为关系不显著。本研究为多巴胺系统基因的联合效应与母亲消极教养调节青少年攻击行为的基因作用机制提供证据。     

父母教养行为与青少年早期抑郁的关系：多基因与负性生活事件的调节作用

以745名青少年为被试,采用多基因×多环境设计,考察COMT Val158Met、5-HTR1A C-1019G和BDNF Val66Met基因多态性的多基因累加得分与负性生活事件在父母教养行为与青少年早期抑郁之间的调节作用及其性别差异。结果发现,多基因累加得分与负性生活事件仅能显著调节父亲积极教养行为对青少年抑郁的预测作用,且该调节作用只存在于男青少年群体中。研究结果丰富了抑郁的多基因遗传机制研究,为制定青少年早期抑郁的干预措施提供了理论依据。     

论西方主流正义概念发展中的嬗变与综合(上)

在西方思想中,正义概念自产生以来历经了许多演变。从希腊神话、梭伦、柏拉图、亚里士多德一系的主流希腊思想,接通中世纪基督教的良心观念,经注入自然法的启蒙观念,汇合为自由主义的体系,并在此母体上吸收社会主义思想的部分影响,这构成了西方正义概念迄今发展的主脉。许多思想与观念都对正义的概念发生深刻影响。它的种种涵义是从它产生以来在整个西方历史中逐步增添、发展、补充进去的。在这些历史的嬗变中也不断产生新的综合形式。大致地说,在它产生于希腊思想之后,在基督教教义、自然法理论、近现代自由主义与社会主义的观念基础上都产生着新的综合。罗尔斯公平的正义的理论是西方正义概念在当代的一个最重要的综合。