Bicriteria cost versus service analysis of a distribution network—a case study

In order to improve the distribution system for the Nordic countries the BASF AG considered 13 alternative scenarios to the existing system. These involved the construction of warehouses at various locations. For every scenario the transportation, storage, and handling cost incurred was to be as low as possible, where restrictions on the delivery time were given. The scenarios were evaluated according to (minimal) total cost and weighted average delivery time. The results led to a restriction to only three cases involving only one new warehouse each. For these, a more accurate model for the cost was developed and evaluated, yielding results similar to a simple linear model. Since there were no clear preferences between cost and delivery time, the final decision was chosen to represent a compromise between the two criteria. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beyond inference by eye: Statistical and graphing practices in JEAB, 1992‐2017

Debates about the utility of p values and correct ways to analyze data have inspired new guidelines on statistical inference by the American Psychological Association (APA) and changes in the way results are reported in other scientific journals, but their impact on the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior (JEAB) has not previously been evaluated. A content analysis of empirical articles published in JEAB between 1992 and 2017 investigated whether statistical and graphing practices changed during that time period. The likelihood that a JEAB article reported a null hypothesis significance test, included a confidence interval, or depicted at least one figure with error bars has increased over time. Features of graphs in JEAB, including the proportion depicting single‐subject data, have not changed systematically during the same period. Statistics and graphing trends in JEAB largely paralleled those in mainstream psychology journals, but there was no evidence that changes to APA style had any direct impact on JEAB. In the future, the onus will continue to be on authors, reviewers and editors to ensure that statistical and graphing practices in JEAB continue to evolve without interfering with characteristics that set the journal apart from other scientific journals.     

A Limited Information Estimator for Dynamic Factor Models

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is an increasingly popular method for examining multivariate time series data. As in cross-sectional data analysis, structural misspecification of time series models is inevitable, and further complicated by the fact that errors occur in both the time series and measurement components of the model. In this article, we introduce a new limited information estimator and local fit diagnostic for dynamic factor models within the SEM framework. We demonstrate the implementation of this estimator and examine its performance under both correct and incorrect model specifications via a small simulation study. The estimates from this estimator are compared to those from the most common system-wide estimators and are found to be more robust to the structural misspecifications considered.     

Culture,psychological proximity to the past and future,and self-continuity

The present research explores how culture influences individuals’ psychological proximity to the past and future, which may predict differences in perceived self-continuity across time. In Studies 1 and 2, we hypothesized and found that Chinese participants saw the past and future as more connected and subjectively closer to the present compared to Euro-Canadians. Following this, we expected and found in Studies 3 and 4 that Chinese participants perceived greater self-continuity over time than Euro-Canadians. Additionally, perceived closeness to the past mediated the effect of culture on past–present self-continuity, which subsequently predicted present–future self-continuity. Study 5 further documented a causal effect of perceived distance to the past on self-continuity. These results suggest that cultural differences in temporal attention to the past and future play a pivotal role in people's sense of self-continuity across time. This has important implications for temporal focalism, intertemporal discounting, and social interactions between Chinese and Euro-Canadians.     

Reasoning and concurrent timing: a study of the mechanisms underlying the effect of emotion on reasoning

Negative emotions typically have an adverse effect on reasoning, especially analytic or logical reasoning. This effect can be explained using an attentional framework in which emotion detracts limited-capacity cognitive resources which are required for reasoning. Another possibility is that the effect of emotion on reasoning is mediated by arousal, as previous research has shown that physiological arousal can be associated with decreased reasoning performance. In this research, we used a dual-task paradigm combining a syllogistic reasoning task and a time production task. Prospective timing allows to disentangle the effects of attention and arousal: time productions should lengthen if emotion takes up cognitive resources that are therefore not available for timing, whereas time productions should shorten if emotional reasoning results from increased arousal. Results from two experiments confirm the adverse impact of emotion on logical reasoning performance. Reasoning about emotional contents led to lengthened time productions, which suggests that the capture of limited cognitive resources is the main factor accounting for the adverse effect of emotion on reasoning and not arousal.     

Facial attractiveness impressions precede trustworthiness inferences: lower detection thresholds and faster decision latencies

Prior research has found a relationship between perceived facial attractiveness and perceived personal trustworthiness. We examined the time course of attractiveness relative to trustworthiness evaluation of emotional and neutral faces. This served to explore whether attractiveness might be used as an easily accessible cue and a quick shortcut for judging trustworthiness. Detection thresholds and judgment latencies as a function of expressive intensity were measured. Significant correlations between attractiveness and trustworthiness consistently held for six emotional expressions at four intensities, and neutral faces. Importantly, perceived attractiveness preceded perceived trustworthiness, with lower detection thresholds and shorter decision latencies. This reveals a time course advantage for attractiveness, and suggests that earlier attractiveness impressions could bias trustworthiness inferences. A heuristic cognitive mechanism is hypothesised to ease processing demands by relying on simple and observable clues (attractiveness) as a substitute for more complex and not easily accessible information (trustworthiness).     

Using Dynamic Panel Models to Study Age‐related Differences and Time‐related Changes in Personality

Along with an increasing interest in the plasticity and role of personality across the adult lifespan comes the need for a diverse set of innovative statistical approaches to study it. With this paper, we set out to illustrate some of the possibilities and challenges in modelling age‐related differences and time‐related changes in personality psychology by means of dynamic panel models. To this end, we first distinguish between the study of age‐related differences and time‐related changes and demonstrate how the treatment of age and time as either discrete or continuous variables implies important modelling choices. Second, we present a selection of four example cases that address the topic of age moderation in diverse matters and with different objectives. Based on our cross‐tabulation of age and time as discrete and continuous variables, the first two example cases represent fairly well‐established models (cases A and B), whereas the remaining cases are used to illustrate current developments in the field (cases C and D). We close the paper with some final remarks on current limitation and future research directions. © 2019 European Association of Personality Psychology     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.