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171.
In this paper, two experiments are reported investigating the nature of the cognitive representations underlying causal conditional reasoning performance. The predictions of causal and logical interpretations of the conditional diverge sharply when inferences involving pairs of conditionals—such as if P1then Q and if P2then Q—are considered. From a causal perspective, the causal direction of these conditionals is critical: are the Picauses of Q; or symptoms caused byQ. The rich variety of inference patterns can naturally be modelled by Bayesian networks. A pair of causal conditionals where Q is an effect corresponds to a “collider” structure where the two causes (Pi) converge on a common effect. In contrast, a pair of causal conditionals where Q is a cause corresponds to a network where two effects (Pi) diverge from a common cause. Very different predictions are made by fully explicit or initial mental models interpretations. These predictions were tested in two experiments, each of which yielded data most consistent with causal model theory, rather than with mental models. 相似文献
172.
Probabilistic models of expected information gain require integrating prior knowledge about causal hypotheses with knowledge about possible actions that might generate data relevant to those hypotheses. Here we looked at whether preschoolers (mean: 54 months) recognize “action possibilities” (affordances) in the environment that allow them to isolate variables when there is information to be gained. By manipulating the physical properties of the stimuli, we were able to affect the degree to which candidate variables could be isolated; by manipulating the base rate of candidate causes, we were able to affect the potential for information gain. Children’s exploratory play was sensitive to both manipulations: given unambiguous evidence children played indiscriminately and rarely tried to isolate candidate causes; given ambiguous evidence, children both selected (Experiment 1) and designed (Experiment 2) informative interventions. 相似文献
173.
174.
人们常常发现自己对某一情景有些熟悉, 但又想不起以前有关的经历。对这种熟悉感的理论解释, 一种观点认为熟悉感来自一种较弱的记忆形式, 与有回忆情况下的再认属于同一加工过程(single-process models, SPM)。另一种观点则认为, 熟悉感来自一种基于熟悉性的再认, 与基于回想的再认相互独立(dual-process theories, DPT)。在实验室, 评估熟悉性与回想是否相互独立的基本方法是寻找两者分离的证据。本文尝试梳理无线索回忆再认(recognition without cued recall, RWCR)范式的研究, 结果显示:熟悉性对某种特殊的概念加工和整体特征的知觉加工要比回想更加敏感, 并没有支持SPM关于回想和熟悉性各自对意义加工和局部特征的知觉加工更加敏感的推断。而且RWCR研究还观测到熟悉性与回想在行为和神经成像方面的实验性分离, 支持了DPT关于熟悉性与回想相互独立的推断。最后, 本文从熟悉性的深层机制和中英文材料对RWCR的不同影响出发, 对未来研究提出展望。 相似文献
175.
Drawing on transactional theories of child development, we assessed bidirectional links between trajectories of adolescent
substance use and parenting processes from early through mid adolescence. Hierarchical generalized models estimated trajectories
for 3,317 adolescents from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, exploring both between- and within-individual effects.
Between individuals, adolescents reporting more regular family activities and greater father and mother knowledge of friends
and teachers experienced lower levels of substance use through mid adolescence. Similarly, adolescents with more frequent
substance use reported lower family activities, father knowledge, and mother knowledge, though these differences dissipated
over time. More conservative within-individual differences indicated a prospective protective effect of family activities,
with increases in adolescent participation in family activities predicting later declines in substance use. Results support
the central importance of engagement in regular family activities, and suggest the need for further exploration of transactional
processes between parents and children in the development of risk behaviors. 相似文献
176.
177.
Kamel Jedidi 《Journal of mathematical psychology》2008,52(4):241-249
A lexicographic rule orders multi-attribute alternatives in the same way as a dictionary orders words. Although no utility function can represent lexicographic preference over continuous, real-valued attributes, a constrained linear model suffices for representing such preferences over discrete attributes. We present an algorithm for inferring lexicographic structures from choice data. The primary difficulty in using such data is that it is seldom possible to obtain sufficient information to estimate individual-level preference functions. Instead, one needs to pool the data across latent clusters of individuals. We propose a method that identifies latent clusters of subjects, and estimates a lexicographic rule for each cluster. We describe an application of the method using data collected by a manufacturer of television sets. We compare the predictions of the model with those obtained from a finite-mixture, multinomial-logit model. 相似文献
178.
ABSTRACT— The distinction between categories and dimensions has important consequences for basic and applied science in many areas of psychological research. Decisions as to whether individuals should be assigned to groups or located along one or more continua often are based on personal preferences or discipline-specific measurement traditions, which can lead to the creation, use, or reification of spurious categories or dimensions. Methods for evaluating the latent structure of psychological constructs, using powerful and informative tests between competing models, are available. Rather than choosing on a priori grounds, investigators can perform structural research to evaluate the strength and consistency with which results tease apart categorical and dimensional models. Here, we review why researchers should make this distinction empirically, briefly discuss methods available for doing so, and describe the breadth of areas ripe for exploiting the largely untapped potential of structural research. 相似文献
179.
Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect averages over many individuals. On the conjecture that the accuracy of the group response is chiefly a consequence of aggregating across individuals, we constructed simple, heuristic approximations to the Bayesian model premised on the hypothesis that individuals have access merely to a sample of k instances drawn from the relevant distribution. The accuracy of the group response reported by Griffiths and Tenenbaum could be accounted for by supposing that individuals each utilize only two instances. Moreover, the variability of the group data is more consistent with this small-sample hypothesis than with the hypothesis that people utilize veridical or nearly veridical representations of the underlying prior distributions. Our analyses lead to a qualitatively different view of how individuals reason from past experience than the view espoused by Griffiths and Tenenbaum. 相似文献
180.
A primary criterion on which models of cognition are evaluated is their ability to fit empirical data. To understand the reason why a model yields a good or poor fit, it is necessary to determine the data-fitting potential (i.e., flexibility) of the model. In the first part of this article, methods for comparing models and studying their flexibility are reviewed, with a focus on parameter space partitioning (PSP), a general-purpose method for analyzing and comparing all classes of cognitive models. PSP is then demonstrated in the second part of the article in which two connectionist models of speech perception (TRACE and ARTphone) are compared to learn how design differences affect model flexibility. 相似文献