海量信息如何影响跨期决策?基于注意资源的理论视角

信息过少容易使人成为井底之蛙, 不利于做出高质量的决策; 那拥有更多信息是否就能做出更高质量、有远见的决策呢?已有研究发现海量信息导致注意资源稀缺, 注意资源对跨期决策至关重要, 但海量信息如何影响跨期决策的内在机制尚不明确。本研究基于注意资源的理论视角提出：海量信息加剧注意资源的稀缺, 一方面当前信息捕获过多注意资源, 导致指向未来的注意资源减少, 造成模拟未来不清晰、预测未来不准确, 意图形成减少; 另一方面增加对时间紧迫性的关注, 减少为长远未来做计划的意愿, 导致在跨期权衡中更偏好近期选项。长期导向的特质可以使个体将注意聚焦于长远收益, 做出更有远见的决策。研究结果将科学地解释海量信息影响跨期决策的内在机制, 并为进一步探讨助推海量信息环境下有远见的跨期决策提供理论与实证依据。     

Mental time travel for self and other in three- and four-year-old children

Humans possess the unique ability to mentally travel backward in time to re-experience past events (i.e., episodic memory) and forward in time to pre-experience future events (i.e., episodic foresight). Although originally viewed as different cognitive skills, they are now both viewed as components of the episodic memory system. Recently, it has been suggested that the episodic system may allow us to not only pre-experience and predict our own future but also that of another person. In the current study, we investigate this possibility by examining the ability of three- and four-year-old children to plan for their own future and for that of another person. We found that both three- and four-year-old children performed equally, when planning for their own future or when planning for the experimenter's future. These data are consistent with the finding that planning for someone else's future recruits the same neural structures that are used when planning for one's own future.     

Children's reasoning about the temporal order of past and future events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.     

Children's temporal judgments for autobiographical past and future events

We compared the performance of twenty 5-7-year-olds on two spatial-temporal judgment tasks. In a semantic task, children located temporal distances from today that were described using conventional, temporal terms on a spatial timeline. In an autobiographical task, children judged temporal distances on the same spatial timeline for events that they had experienced, or were going to experience, presented without explicit temporal references. Six-year-olds were equally accurate in judging temporal distances in the semantic and autobiographical tasks, but 7-year-olds were more accurate in the semantic task. Older children were more accurate than younger children in the semantic task, but no significant age differences were found for autobiographical events. Surprisingly, children were equally accurate in locating past and future events in time. Children at both ages were more accurate judging temporal distances up to one week away (both past and future) as compared to distances of two to four weeks across both tasks. Results suggest that knowledge of recurring time patterns and conventional time measurement systems is necessary, but not sufficient, for locating autobiographical events in time, and temporal distance plays an important role in children's temporal judgments.     

心理时间旅行的动力机制：自我的作用

选取120名大学生,通过两个研究考察了自我在心理时间旅行中的动力机制。研究1以核心自我评价为评估自我概念的指标,发现自尊和一般自我效能对指向未来的心理时间旅行具有一定的预测效力。研究2通过启动使不同类型的自我概念在意识中占优,发现互倚组比独立组报告出更多具体的事件,且更关注他人和关系。研究表明,自我概念能够引导个体对过去和未来事件的建构。     

心理时间旅行与自我:发展中关系模式的转换

该研究分别考察了儿童中晚期(9~12岁)、少年期(13~15岁)和青年早期(17岁、19岁、21岁)个体心理时间旅行的发展模式,并进一步探讨了不同年龄阶段,情景记忆和自我对情景预见作用模式的转换。研究采用访谈法评估心理时间旅行,以自我描述(儿童期和少年期)或自我连续性(青年早期)作为评估自我的指标。研究发现:(1)儿童中晚期,想象未来情景细节的数量随年龄增长而增加,少年期和青年早期的情景预见能力则趋于平稳,与情景记忆的发展趋势一致;(2)无论在哪个年龄段,情景记忆对情景预见都是有效的预测源;(3)自我描述在少年期才开始对情景预见产生预测作用;(4)青年早期,情景记忆以自我连续性为中介变量作用于情景预见。     

Creating the Future of Faith: Foresighted Pastors and Organic Theologians

Abstract :  The renewal of eschatological reflection over the past few decades may be a precursor to an organic theology that enlarges faith to cultivate its own forward view through foresight methodologies.