Environments That Make Us Smart: Ecological Rationality

ABSTRACT— Traditional views of rationality posit general-purpose decision mechanisms based on logic or optimization. The study of ecological rationality focuses on uncovering the "adaptive toolbox" of domain-specific simple heuristics that real, computationally bounded minds employ, and explaining how these heuristics produce accurate decisions by exploiting the structures of information in the environments in which they are applied. Knowing when and how people use particular heuristics can facilitate the shaping of environments to engender better decisions.     

The probability of causal conditionals

Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q/p). We report three experiments on causal indicative conditionals and related counterfactuals that support this hypothesis. We measured the probabilities people assigned to truth table cases, P(pq), P(p notq), P( notpq) and P( notp notq). From these ratings, we computed three independent predictors, P(p), P(q/p) and P(q/ notp), that we then entered into a regression equation with judged P(if p then q) as the dependent variable. In line with the conditional probability hypothesis, P(q/p) was by far the strongest predictor in our experiments. This result is inconsistent with the claim that causal conditionals are the material conditionals of elementary logic. Instead, it supports the Ramsey test hypothesis, implying that common processes underlie the use of conditionals in reasoning and judgments of conditional probability in decision making.     

平板运动试验结合颈动脉斑块检测诊断冠心病

探讨平板运动试验(TET)结合颈动脉斑块检测在诊断冠心病的临床意义。对166例疑诊冠心病患者进行冠状动脉造影(CAG),TET,颈动脉斑块检查,以CAG的诊断结果为金标准,分析TET,颈动脉斑块检查,TET结合颈动脉斑块检查诊断冠心病的敏感度、特异度。比较三者诊断冠心病的敏感度、特异度。三者敏感度分别为71.4%、64.3%、96.0%。特异度分别为65%、60.0%、82.4%。后者较前两者敏感度、特异度P<0.05。TET结合颈动脉斑块检查可显著提高冠心病的诊断率,不失为CAG前的筛选方法。     

A derived transfer of functions and the implicit association test

Participants were trained in a series of interrelated conditional discriminations that aimed to establish four 4-member equivalence classes (i.e., A1-B1-C1-D1, A2-B2-C2-D2, A3-B3-C3-D3, A4-B4-C4-D4). During this training, the four A stimuli (i.e., A1, A2, A3, and A4) were compounded with pictures containing positive or negative evaluative functions (A1/A2 negative & A3/A4 positive). The transfer of evaluative functions to directly and indirectly related members of the equivalence classes (i.e., B, C, and D stimuli) was measured using an Implicit Association Test (IAT). During consistent test blocks, participants were required to press the same response key for target words that were related to those A stimuli that possessed similar evaluative functions (A1/A2-left key & A3/A4-right key). During inconsistent test blocks, target words that were related to those A stimuli with different evaluative functions were assigned to the same response key (A1/A4-left key & A2/A3-right key). Results showed that all 8 participants, who passed a matching-to-sample equivalence test following the IAT, responded more rapidly on consistent relative to inconsistent test blocks. This typical IAT effect was not observed for those participants who did not pass the equivalence test. The results suggest that the IAT effect may arise from formally untested derived relations, and supports the argument that such relations could provide a valid behavioral model of semantic categories in natural language.     

Equality of opportunity and complex equality: The special place of schooling

This paper is an engagement with Equality by John Baker, Kathleen Lynch, Judy Walsh and Sara Cantillon. It identifies a dilemma for educational egalitarians, which arises within their theory of equality, arguing that sometimes there may be a conflict between advancing equality of opportunity and providing equality of respect and recognition, and equality of love care and solidarity. It argues that the latter values may have more weight in deciding what to do than traditional educational egalitarians have usually thought.     

“Der Weisheits letzter Schluss”? Wisdom’s Last Conclusion?

Unexpected empirical findings lead Schwarz (2009) to question current methodological approaches within psychology. He claims that distribution anomalies, which cannot be explained by independent variables, actually prove an error in classical test theory, which then leads him to criticize current scientific conventionalism. In this commentary, it is shown that the current university system not only uses, but often reproduces conventionalism. It is, of course, necessary to teach certain techniques and tools to future psychologists, but using these critically seem to be essential in preventing scientific approaches turn into ideologies that are or must not be questioned—even if this is sometimes less threatening to one’s identity as a scientist/psychologist. This is true for all sciences, but understanding the bio-psycho-social interdependencies of human nature (ambiguities), as Schwarz describes it, seems to be a particular challenge that is in many ways different from other disciplines. Instead of striving to be like them, it is suggested we establish an ambiguity-accepting and critical environment in psychology in which theories and approaches are not considered final but temporary to foster change and progress.

Item difficulty parameter estimation using the idea of the graded response model and computerized adaptive testing

Abstract:  In test operations using IRT (item response theory), items are included in a test before being used to rate subjects and the response data is used to estimate their item parameters. However, this method of test operation may lead to item content leakage and an adequate test operation can become difficult. To address this problem, Ozaki and Toyoda (2005, 2006 ) developed item difficulty parameter estimation methods that use paired comparison data from the perspective of the difficulty of items as judged by raters familiar with the field. In the present paper, an improved method of item difficulty parameter estimation is developed. In this new method, an item for which the difficulty parameter is to be estimated is compared with multiple items simultaneously, from the perspective of their difficulty. This is not a one-to-one comparison but a one-to-many comparison. In the comparisons, raters are informed that items selected from an item pool are ordered according to difficulty. The order will provide insight to improve the accuracy of judgment.     

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are compared through the analysis of data sets famous in the equating literature. Also, the classical percentile-rank, linear, and mean equating models are each proven to be a special case of a Bayesian model under a highly-informative choice of prior distribution.     

Coefficients Alpha,Beta, Omega,and the glb: Comments on Sijtsma

There are three fundamental problems in Sijtsma (Psychometrika, 2008): (1) contrary to the name, the glb is not the greatest lower bound of reliability but rather is systematically less than ω _t (McDonald, Test theory: A unified treatment, Erlbaum, Hillsdale, 1999), (2) we agree with Sijtsma that when considering how well a test measures one concept, α is not appropriate, but recommend ω _t rather than the glb, and (3) the end user needs procedures that are readily available in open source software.     

应用项目反应理论创建图形推理测验题库

自编235个图形推理测验题目。采用铆测验等值设计,以72个联合型瑞文测验题目为铆题,对初中到大学各能力层次的1733名男性进行了测验。使用BILOG MG3.0（边际极大似然估计）对实测数据进行了分析,采用Logsitic 3参数模型。剔除数据与模型拟合不好的题目以及信息函数最大值小于0.3的题目,最终建立一个包含181道题目的题库。该题库可以用于淘汰智力较低的应征青年