Finding a serial burglar's home using distance decay and conditional origin–destination patterns: a test of empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation in the Hague

Can we tell where an offender lives from where he or she commits crimes? Journey-to-crime estimation is a tool that uses crime locations to tell us where to search for a serial offender's home. In this paper, we test a new method: empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation. It differs from previous methods because it utilises an ‘origin–destination’ rule in addition to the ‘distance decay’ rule that prior methods have used. In the new method, the profiler not only asks ‘what distances did previous offenders travel between their home and the crime scenes?’ but also ‘where did previous offenders live who offended at the locations included in the crime series I investigate right now?’. The new method could not only improve predictive accuracy, it could also reduce the traditional distinction between marauding and commuting offenders. Utilising the CrimeStat software, we apply the new method to 62 serial burglars in The Hague, The Netherlands, and show that the new method has higher predictive accuracy than methods that only exploit a distance decay rule. The new method not only improves the accuracy of predicting the homes of commuters—offenders who live outside their offending area—it also improves the search for marauders—offenders who live inside their offending area. After presenting an example of the application of the technique for prediction of a specific burglar, we discuss the limitations of the method and offer some suggestions for its future development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sense of reality,reality testing and reality processing in borderline patients1

Although borderline patients are suitable for it, they often undergo repeated testing of phantasies against objective reality without success. A reason for these partial failures is that subjects have not been able to build a solid sense of reality and have found many diffi culties for processing reality demands and possibilities. The author puts forward some thoughts on this question, such as the importance of working through the depressive position and the Oedipus complex in the process of building up a solid sense of reality. A sense of reality also favours continuous reality processing. When reality processing becomes as continuous as life itself, the repetition of individual reality tests becomes less frequent and necessary, and more satisfying. The author also presents some recommendations for the psychoanalytic treatment of such patients, stressing the importance and the diffi culties of the introduction of the borderline patient into the triangular situation because primitive defences‐such as disavowal and denial‐are mobilized.     

缺位与越位的思考——医疗保健体制改革的定位

政府的缺位和医院的越位是目前医疗体制改革的症结所在。政府将医院推向市场,意味着政府放弃医疗的社会保障职能。医院失去政府的约束和支持,逐利将成为其必然行为。平价医院只是缓和矛盾的一时之计,只要医院不退出市场,看病难、看病贵就难有灵丹妙药,医患关系也将难以和谐。     

Contributors to this issue

Judith Hubback
Roman Lesmeister
Wendy Wyman-McGinty
Hester McFarland Solomon
Elizabeth Urban
Barbara Wharton     

On presence in the psychoanalytic relation

This paper discusses presence in the psychoanalytic relation, the analysand’s and the analyst’s. Clinical situations with different qualities of presence will be considered focusing on what kind of interplay between analysand and analyst they may lead to. As examples, I have chosen three different clinical situations: In the first there is an interplay between the analysand’s free associations and the analyst’s ‘evenly suspended attention’. In connection with this I will discuss Bion’s concepts of ‘reverie’ and of ‘O’. In the second there is where the interaction is characterised by what Meltzer calls ‘geographical confusion’. In the third there is a ‘transference delusion’ in the psychoanalysis of breakdown as Winnicott describes it.     

4~6岁汉语儿童正字法意识的萌芽与发展

研究旨在考察汉语学龄前儿童正字法意识的发展情况。在某中等城市一所幼儿园随机选择4岁、5岁、6岁三个年龄段的儿童各31、37、34名。实验一使用汉字、韩文和日文（平假名）作为实验材料探查学龄前儿童的汉字特异性意识;实验二使用上下结构、左右结构的真字、假字和非字考察学龄前儿童的部件位置意识。实验结果显示：（1）三组儿童都能区分日文和汉字,5岁左右儿童这种能力达到成熟。4岁儿童不能区分汉字和韩文,直到6岁,辨别汉字和韩文的能力也没有发展成熟。（2）三组儿童都能意识到假字符合正字法规则,但拒绝非字的能力在学前期尚未发展成熟,儿童在学前期不具备部件位置意识;6岁儿童更容易拒绝上下部件位置颠倒的非字。     

空间再定向任务中心理表征的多样性——来自虚拟现实实验的证据

成人和儿童完成空间再定向的具体过程与内在机制一直是研究者们关注的问题,在空间中是否形成了关于环境的整体表征是其中的一个关键。研究者们的观点并不一致,研究结果也提供了不同的证据。使用传统的空间再定向任务在此问题上难以得到明确的结论。本研究采用虚拟现实技术,让被试在虚拟现实环境中观察所在空间,然后直接向被试呈现空间的俯视视角并要求完成位置再认。通过对正确率和反应时的模式分析,发现被试反应可以划分为三种类型：整体的、独立于视角的心理表征（各方向均为高正确率低反应时）;整体的、依赖于方向的心理表征（正确率和反应时在不同方向上差异显著）和视角匹配的心理表征（各方向上均为低正确率）。三种不同的表征形式在人群中同时存在,并且在同一个体身上表现出不稳定性。     

藏-汉读者汉语歧义句加工的歧义效应及语境促进效应

采用眼动技术,通过两个实验,考察藏-汉读者阅读汉语歧义句时的歧义效应以及语境在句子歧义消解中的作用。结果发现:藏-汉读者在阅读汉语歧义句时存在歧义效应; 语境对歧义消解起促进作用,表现为,当语境置于歧义句之前或语境意义偏向歧义句主要意思时,藏-汉读者对歧义句的加工更容易。并且,歧义效应和语境促进效应贯穿于早期阶段到晚期阶段的整个句子加工过程。     

On the nature of consonant/vowel differences in letter position coding: Evidence from developing and adult readers

In skilled adult readers, transposed‐letter effects (jugde ‐JUDGE ) are greater for consonant than for vowel transpositions. These differences are often attributed to phonological rather than orthographic processing. To examine this issue, we employed a scenario in which phonological involvement varies as a function of reading experience: A masked priming lexical decision task with 50‐ms primes in adult and developing readers. Indeed, masked phonological priming at this prime duration has been consistently reported in adults, but not in developing readers (Davis, Castles, & Iakovidis, 1998). Thus, if consonant/vowel asymmetries in letter position coding with adults are due to phonological influences, transposed‐letter priming should occur for both consonant and vowel transpositions in developing readers. Results with adults (Experiment 1) replicated the usual consonant/vowel asymmetry in transposed‐letter priming. In contrast, no signs of an asymmetry were found with developing readers (Experiments 2–3). However, Experiments 1–3 did not directly test the existence of phonological involvement. To study this question, Experiment 4 manipulated the phonological prime‐target relationship in developing readers. As expected, we found no signs of masked phonological priming. Thus, the present data favour an interpretation of the consonant/vowel dissociation in letter position coding as due to phonological rather than orthographic processing.