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To search for genetic influence on human fertility differentials appears inconsistent with past empirical research and prior interpretations of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection. We discuss Fisher's theorem and give reasons why genetic influences may indeed account for individual differences in human fertility. We review recent empirical studies showing genetic influence on variance in fertility outcomes and precursors to fertility. Further, some of the genetic variance underlying fertility outcomes overlaps with that underlying fertility precursors. Findings from different cultures, different times, different levels of data, and both behavioral and molecular genetic designs lead to the same conclusion: Fertility differentials are genetically influenced, and at least part of the influence derives from behavioral precursors that are under volitional control, which are themselves genetically mediated.  相似文献   
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It is demonstrated in this paper that two major tests for 2 × 2 talbes are highly related from a Bayesian perspective. Although it is well-known that Fisher's exact and Pearson's chi-square tests are asymptotically equivalent, the present analysis shows that a formal similarity also exists in small samples. The key assumption that leads to the resemblance is the presence of a continuous parameter measuring association. In particular, it is shown that Pearson's probability can be obtained by integrating a two-moment approximation to the posterior distribution of the log-odds ratio. Furthermore, Pearson's chi-square test gave an excellent approximation to the actual Bayes probability in all 2×2 tables examined, except for those with extremely disproportionate marginal frequencies.  相似文献   
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The logic of an ought operator O is contranegative with respect to an underlying preference relation if it satisfies the property Op & (¬p)(¬q) Oq. Here the condition that is interpolative ((p (pq) q) (q (pq) p)) is shown to be necessary and sufficient for all -contranegative preference relations to satisfy the plausible deontic postulates agglomeration (Op & OqO(p&q)) and disjunctive division (O(p&q) Op Oq).  相似文献   
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When the underlying distribution is discrete with a limited number of categories, methods for interval estimation of the intraclass correlation which assume normality are theoretically inadequate for use. On the basis of large sample theory, this paper develops an asymptotic closed-form interval estimate of the intraclass correlation for the case where there is a natural score associated with each category. This paper employs Monte Carlo simulation to demonstrate that when the underlying intraclass correlation is large, the traditional interval estimator which assumes normality can be misleading. We find that when the number of classes is 20, the interval estimator proposed here can generally perform reasonably well in a variety of situations. This paper further notes that the proposed interval estimator is invariant with respect to a linear transformation. When the data are on a nominal scale, an extension of the proposed method to account for this case, as well as a discussion on the relationship between the intraclass correlation and a kappa-type measure defined here and on the limitation of the corresponding kappa-type estimator are given.The authors wish to thank the Editor, the Associate Editor, and the three referees for many valuable comments and suggestions to improve the clarity of this paper. The works for the first, the third, and the fourth authors were partially supported by grant #R01AR43025-01 from the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases.  相似文献   
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通过4个实验考察道德概念垂直空间隐喻理解中的映射机制和特征。实验1采用空间Stroop范式,发现被试判断完道德词后,对判断随后呈现在屏幕上方或下方字母的反应时的差异不显著,没有发现词汇类型对空间位置的影响。实验2采用有意识迫选法,要求被试出声读出屏幕中央的道德词后,对屏幕上方或下方的希腊语非词进行二择一迫选,发现被试读出道德词后倾向于选择屏幕上方的非词,读出不道德词后倾向于选择屏幕下方的非词。实验3仍采用Stroop范式,发现被试做出空间"上"的判断后,对随后道德词的词义判断反应时显著快于不道德词,做出空间"下"的判断后,对不道德词的反应时显著快于道德词。实验4探讨空间位置是否会对判断人物的道德性产生影响,结果发现被试倾向于认为屏幕上方的人物是道德的,而屏幕下方的人物是不道德的。4个实验的结果表明,在道德概念垂直空间隐喻的理解中,映射的方式是灵活的、双向的,既可以由始源域向目标域映射,也可以由目标域向始源域映射,但两个方向上的映射力量是不平衡的。  相似文献   
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Partial functions can be easily represented in set theory as certain sets of ordered pairs. However, classical set theory provides no special machinery for reasoning about partial functions. For instance, there is no direct way of handling the application of a function to an argument outside its domain as in partial logic. There is also no utilization of lambda-notation and sorts or types as in type theory. This paper introduces a version of von-Neumann-Bernays-Gödel set theory for reasoning about sets, proper classes, and partial functions represented as classes of ordered pairs. The underlying logic of the system is a partial first-order logic, so class-valued terms may be nondenoting. Functions can be specified using lambda-notation, and reasoning about the application of functions to arguments is facilitated using sorts similar to those employed in the logic of the IMPS Interactive Mathematical Proof System. The set theory is intended to serve as a foundation for mechanized mathematics systems.  相似文献   
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This paper has two objectives. The first is to review and address concerns raised by Hazelrigg that Arrow's impossibility theorem prevents the selection of rational aggregation methods for use in engineering trade studies. In addressing these concerns, the work of Saari is cited to establish the fact that the Borda count is the only ‘non‐dictatorial’ positional voting method that satisfies the criteria for a rational decision procedure while using complete information. Hence, the resulting rank ordering of the alternatives is the most reliable outcome. Several previous studies that use other aggregation methods are critiqued, and Borda is applied to examples to illustrate the differences in the outcomes. The second objective is to extend the applicability of Borda to include attributes such as cost, schedule duration, and certain technical and performance measures that are generally more reasonably described as correlated random variables. Exact Probabilities by Simulation with Borda, a method introduced by Hulkower that improves a technique by Book for determining which candidate in a trade study is the probable lowest‐cost alternative, is generalized to include multiple correlated criteria, each of which is expressed as a random variable and thus incorporates probabilistic uncertainty. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Kahneman and Tversky (1973) described an effect they called ‘insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes’, later dubbed base rate neglect, which describes people’s tendency to underweight prior information in favor of new data. As probability theory requires that prior probabilities be taken into account, via Bayes’ theorem, the fact that most people fail to do so has been taken as evidence of human irrationality and, by others, of a mismatch between our cognitive processes and the questions being asked (Cosmides & Tooby, 1996). In contrast to both views, we suggest that simplistic Bayesian updating using base rates is not necessarily rational. To that end, we present experiments in which base rate neglect is often the right strategy, and show that people’s base rate usage varies systematically as a function of the extent to which the data that make up a base rate are perceived as trustworthy.  相似文献   
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