The devastating terror attacks of 11 September 2001 have often been characterized as a "bolt from the blue." Drawing inspiration from the political psychological literature on strategic surprise, this article poses the deceptively simple question of why so many U.S. policymakers were caught so woefully off guard last year. Through a preliminary empirical exploration of three broad explanatory "cuts" derived from the relevant interdisciplinary literature—psychological, bureau–organizational, and agenda–political—the authors seek to shed light on the sources of failure that may have contributed to 9/11 and point to promising avenues of investigation for future research as the available empirical record becomes more complete. 相似文献
Objective: The role of depression and quality of life on clinical outcomes of congestive heart failure (CHF) is well recognised. However, there are fewer studies investigating the prognostic role of subclinical psychological distress and well-being impairments. The aims of this study were to evaluate clinical/subclinical psychological distress and well-being in CHF outpatients, and the influence of these psychological factors on adverse cardiac events (re-hospitalisation, cardiac death), at 4-year follow-up.
Design: Sixty-eight CHF outpatients underwent psychological assessment at baseline and, after 4 years, information about cardiac events was collected in 60 patients by means of clinical records.
Main outcome measures: Psychological assessment included structured clinical interview for DSM (major/minor depression), Interview for diagnostic criteria for psychosomatic research (demoralisation), symptom questionnaire, psychological well-being scales.
Results: At follow-up, 39.7% of the baseline sample reported cardiovascular events (14 CHF-related re-hospitalisations and 13 cardiac deaths) and 5.9% other causes for death. Among the variables examined as potential risk factors for adverse cardiovascular outcomes, only hostility was significant, even after controlling for disease severity (hazard ratio = 2.38, 95%confidence interval: 1.04–5.45, p = .040).
Conclusion: In outpatients with CHF, psychological assessment should include both clinical and subclinical distress such as hostility, in order to better address psychological risk factors for cardiac outcomes. 相似文献
People can be risk seeking and risk averse, but people can also be uncertainty averse: in other words, if risk is at least the possibility of an unwanted affect, then it is not only the unwanted effect that they want to avoid, it can also be the uncertainty inherent in the possibility that they wish to avoid. This uncertainty aversion can even lead to a state where someone prefers a certain outcome at all costs, even when it is the worst case. This gives rise to the following paradox: the worst case seems to be more acceptable than the state where there is still a chance that it will not materialize. We can call this the Unbearable Uncertainty Paradox. This essay provides a first conceptual sketch of this phenomenon that seems to be widespread but nevertheless does not appear to have been identified before, either by philosophers or by psychologists. 相似文献
When learning a new math concept, should learners be first taught the concept and its associated procedures and then solve problems, or solve problems first even if it leads to failure and then be taught the concept and the procedures? Two randomized‐controlled studies found that both methods lead to high levels of procedural knowledge. However, students who engaged in problem solving before being taught demonstrated significantly greater conceptual understanding and ability to transfer to novel problems than those who were taught first. The second study further showed that when given an opportunity to learn from the failed problem‐solving attempts of their peers, students outperformed those who were taught first, but not those who engaged in problem solving first. Process findings showed that the number of student‐generated solutions significantly predicted learning outcomes. These results challenge the conventional practice of direct instruction to teach new math concepts and procedures, and propose the possibility of learning from one's own failed problem‐solving attempts or those of others before receiving instruction as alternatives for better math learning. 相似文献
This paper is based on work in the baby clinic of a general practice, with examples from infant observation, and ideas from recent research. It is something of an interdisciplinary paper. 相似文献
Abstract The existence of man is distinguished by its split state: man stands in the middle of life yet still has an awareness of his own death. He has to compensate whatever is missing in him naturally at the societal level, created as culture, and at the individual level through creativity. Rank investigated the human ‘creative drive’, the anthropological aspiration to express oneself in creative works, and to overcome the fear of death with its help. Freud admired poets and artists, whose achievements he could not psychoanalytically access, but he considered science superior to the harmless and naïve arts. There are two anthropological radicals: premature birth and the consciousness of death. Freud's massive fear of death made it difficult for him to acknowledge the problem of death appropriately. In Rank's concept, the development of human creativity contributes towards the fear of death being alleviated so that the knowledge of death can be integrated into life; creativity belongs to the fundamental opportunities of man that may enable him to find a way through neurosis. Failure is as much a part of life as is creativity: those who do not experience and accept life in its tragic dimension are denied creativity. Only a creative person who accepts his partial failure finds the strength to continue to be creative without his imperfect work leading to the ritual repetition of the same thing again and again, that is, getting stuck in recidivism. 相似文献
This study tests whether cognitive failures mediate effects of work-related time pressure and time control on commuting accidents and near-accidents. Participants were 83 employees (56% female) who each commuted between their regular place of residence and place of work using vehicles. The Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) asked for the frequency of failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action execution. Time pressure and time control at work were assessed by the Instrument for Stress Oriented Task Analysis (ISTA). Commuting accidents in the last 12 months were reported by 10% of participants, and half of the sample reported commuting near-accidents in the last 4 weeks. Cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of time pressure at work on near-accidents even when age, gender, neuroticism, conscientiousness, commuting duration, commuting distance, and time pressure during commuting were controlled for. Time control was negatively related to cognitive failure and neuroticism, but no association with commuting accidents or near-accidents was found. Time pressure at work is likely to increase cognitive load. Time pressure might, therefore, increase cognitive failures during work and also during commuting. Hence, time pressure at work can decrease commuting safety. The result suggests a reduction of time pressure at work should improve commuting safety. 相似文献
In three experiments we investigated the perceptual specificity of explicit (old-new object recognition) and implicit memory (word-picture matching) for colour. In order to enhance the impact of colour on processing, we increased the number of colours per object and we impaired shape information. We presented multicoloured pictures (Experiment 1), blurred and partially occluded pictures (Experiment 2) and coloured line drawings in visual noise (Experiment 3). Experiments 1 and 2 had an intentional study phase; the study phase of Experiment 3 was an incidental colour or category naming task. Changing colour from study to test always had negative effects on episodic recognition although colour was irrelevant. In contrast, in the matching task old pictures were generally matched faster than new ones independent of their colour congruence. In Experiment 3, an additional small advantage of congruent colours and of semantic processing occurred. We conclude that two different memory representations contribute to these tasks. Changes of an achromatic, more abstract representation, that is used in normal object recognition, and a representation of the specific exemplar that includes colour. This latter token is used in episodic recognition as well as in unusual perceptual tasks (Experiment 3). 相似文献