计量测验效度的一种方法——测量目标结构空间的实证性因素分析

该文提出了计量测验效度的一种统一方法。首先,根据测量目标由测验编制者提出一组可能的线性拟合模型,拟合模型的集合称作“测量目标结构空间”。然后运用实证性因素分析对各个假设的拟合模型进行多方面的拟合良好性检验。若其中的某一假设模型能最优地拟合预测资料,则该模型中的公共因素的方差总贡献与观测变量的总方差的比就可定义为该测验的效度     

DIE MARXISMUS – DEBATTE IM “SILBERNEN ZEITALTER”

Im Anfang des 20.Jahrhunderts unterzog eine Reihe von jungen, später berühmt gewordenen Philosophen den Marxismus einer tiefen Kritik. Ihnen ist es gelungen, wichtige Defekte der revolutionären Doktrinen aufzudecken und ihre verhängnivsollen Konsequenzen vorwegzunehmen. Diese Kritik ist auch für die gegenwärtige geistig-politische Situation aktuell.     

Apocalyptic Argument and the Anticipation of Catastrophe: the Prediction of Risk and the Risks of Prediction

This essay proposes to extend the model of apocalyptic argument developedin my recent book Arguing the Apocalypse (OLeary, 1994) beyond the study ofreligious discourse, by applying this model to the debate over awell-publicized earthquake prediction that caused a widespread panic in theAmerican midwest in December, 1990. The first section of the essay willsummarize the essential elements of apocalyptic argument as I have earlierdefined them; the second section will apply the model to the case of the NewMadrid, Missouri, earthquake prediction, in order to demonstrate thatcertain patterns of reasoning characteristic of religious apocalyptic arepresent in the discourse over an anticipated local disaster. My ultimatepurpose is to show that predictions of global and local catastrophe mayserve as extreme cases that will illuminate the dynamics of predictiveargument in general. Thus my argument will seek to undercut Daniel Bellsdistinction between prophecy and prediction (Bell, 1973) by establishingthat these discourses share identifiable formal and substantivecharacteristics, and depend for their rhetorical effect on anxiety, hope,far, and excitement as modes of temporal anticipation.     

教育因素对认知功能年老化过程的影响

应用言语－操作和人机对话两种方式共１２项作业,完成年龄和教育因素对认知功能影响的研究,被试共７３４人,４６－７５岁．结果表明：（１）年龄和教育因素对认知成绩的影响因作业而异,分别为年龄影响明显（图象自由回忆和无意义图形再认）、教育因素影响明显（卡片分类、图象分类和矩阵填图）、年龄和教育因素影响均明显（符号数字、词对联想学习、听觉和视觉数字广度）或均不明显（心算）．（２）四项非词语性作业速度明显受年龄和教育因素的双重影响．     

Application of the bootstrap methods in factor analysis

A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to investigate the performance of the bootstrap methods in normal theory maximum likelihood factor analysis both when the distributional assumption is satisfied and unsatisfied. The parameters and their functions of interest include unrotated loadings, analytically rotated loadings, and unique variances. The results reveal that (a) bootstrap bias estimation performs sometimes poorly for factor loadings and nonstandardized unique variances; (b) bootstrap variance estimation performs well even when the distributional assumption is violated; (c) bootstrap confidence intervals based on the Studentized statistics are recommended; (d) if structural hypothesis about the population covariance matrix is taken into account then the bootstrap distribution of the normal theory likelihood ratio test statistic is close to the corresponding sampling distribution with slightly heavier right tail.This study was carried out in part under the ISM cooperative research program (91-ISM · CRP-85, 92-ISM · CRP-102). The authors would like to thank the editor and three reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions which improved the quality of this paper considerably.     

Isotonic ordinal probabilistic models (ISOP)

The concept of an ordinal instrumental probabilistic comparison is introduced. It relies on an ordinal scale given a priori and on the concept of stochastic dominance. It is used to define a weakly independently ordered system, or isotonic ordinal probabilistic (ISOP) model, which allows the construction of separate sample-free ordinal scales on a set of subjects and a set of items. The ISOP-model is a common nonparametric theoretical structure for unidimensional models for quantitative, ordinal and dichotomous variables.Fundamental theorems on dichotomous and polytomous weakly independently ordered systems are derived. It is shown that the raw score system has the same formal properties as the latent system, and therefore the latter can be tested at the observed empirical level.I wish to thank 3 reviewers and 2 editors who contributed a lot to the readability and precision of the article.     

Antecedents of information-processing skills in infants: Habituation, novelty responsiveness, and cross-modal transfer

Three skills which characterize cognitive functioning in human infants in the middle of the first year of life—habituation, novelty responsiveness, and cross-modal transfer—predict mental ability in later childhood. Antecedents of each skill at 5 months postnatal were examined in a short-term prospective longitudinal study of infant ability and maternal intelligence and interaction style. Infant perceptuocognitive performance at 2 months, maternal intelligence, and maternal responsiveness at 5 months relate to the expression of the three infant cognitive skills, but in different ways. Variation in infant information-processing abilities can be explained by specific child and maternal factors that are evident soon after birth.     

Factor structure of the basic personality inventory with incarcerated offenders

The item and scale factor structure of the Basic Personality Inventory (BPI) was examined in a sample of 486 offenders incarcerated for violent and sexual crimes. Separate principal-component analyses of the items for each of the 11 clinical scales, critical item scale, and social desirability scale indicated a one-dimensional factor solution for all scales except Depression and Persecutory Ideation. The Depression scale's two factors were Hopelessness and Depressive Affect and the Persecutory Ideation scale's two factors were General Paranoia and Perception of External Control. Although the factors for these two scales may assist in interpretation, the correlations between the factors and the total score of their respective scale were high. Confirmatory factor analysis of the 220 items from the 11 clinical scales supported the factorial logic of the scoring key. Analysis of the 11 clinical scales resulted in two factors: General Psychopathology/Adjustment and Antisocial Orientation. The results suggest that all but two scales can be viewed as unidimensional thereby allowing for a straightforward clinical interpretation. These analyses support the internal structure of the BPI and lend credence to external validity work with forensic populations.     

The effect of additional variables on factor indeterminacy in models with a single common factor

Determinate solutions for the indeterminate common factor ofp variables satisfying the single common factor model are not unique. Therefore an infinite sequence of additional variables that conform jointly with the originalp variables to the original single common factor model does not determine a unique solution for the indeterminate factor of thep variables (although the solution is unique for the factor of the infinite sequence). Other infinite sequences may be found to determine different solutions for the factor of the originalp variables. The paper discusses a number of theorems about the effects of additional variables on factor indeterminacy in a model with a single common factor and draws conclusions from them for factor theory in general.     

An alternative to the methodology for analysis of covariance

A general statistical model for simultaneous analysis of data from several groups is described. The model is primarily designed to be used for the analysis of covariance. The model can handle any number of covariates and criterion variables, and any number of treatment groups. Treatment effects may be assessed when the treatment groups are not randomized. In addition, the model allows for measurement errors in the criterion variables as well as in the covariates. A wide variety of hypotheses concerning the parameters of the model can be tested by means of a large sample likelihood ratio test. In particular, the usual assumptions of ANCOVA may be tested.Research reported in this paper has been partly supported by the Swedish Council for Social Science Research under project Statistical methods for analysis of longitudinal data, project director Karl G. Jöreskog, and partly by the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation under project Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, project director Karl G. Jöreskog.