Constructing Confidence Intervals for Effect Size Measures of an Indirect Effect

Confidence intervals for an effect size can provide the information about the magnitude of an effect and its precision as well as the binary decision about the existence of an effect. In this study, the performances of five different methods for constructing confidence intervals for ratio effect size measures of an indirect effect were compared in terms of power, coverage rates, Type I error rates, and widths of confidence intervals. The five methods include the percentile bootstrap method, the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap method, the delta method, the Fieller method, and the Monte Carlo method. The results were discussed with respect to the adequacy of the distributional assumptions and the nature of ratio quantity. The confidence intervals from the five methods showed similar results for samples of more than 500, whereas, for samples of less than 500, the confidence intervals were sufficiently narrow to convey the information about the population effect sizes only when the effect sizes of regression coefficients defining the indirect effect are large.     

Eyewitness Memory and Metamemory in Product Identification: Evidence for Familiarity Biases

Research on the reliability of eyewitness memory for criminal events has been extensively studied, but eyewitness memory in civil cases has not. However, many of these civil cases revolve around eyewitness memory for events that transpired decades ago. We have developed a paradigm with which to study memory for specific product brand identification, a common question in civil cases involving product liability. Participants were asked to follow recipes and were then given surprise memory tests on the specific brands of products used. In addition, they were asked to report their subjective confidence for each response. Memory and performance was poor after even a brief delay, as was metamemory accuracy: Confidence regarding brand name recall was a poor indicator of accuracy. Participants also displayed a strong familiarity bias. They frequently reported using familiar, common brands, when no such products were actually used. This was especially true at longer delays, after which false identification of familiar products was twice as common as correct responses.     

Witness Vetting: What Determines Detectives' Perceptions of Witness Credibility?

During the course of a criminal investigation witness vetting, a detective's process of determining the credibility and weight of witness information, can lead to errors in an investigation that can go virtually unchallenged. Witness confidence, opportunity to view, and type of information proffered were examined in relation to detective inferences about witness reliability, accuracy, and probable cause to arrest. Experiment 1 involved 39 sworn law enforcement officers, and experiment 2 involved 43 sworn law enforcement officers and 86 mock detectives. Participants viewed a digital recording depicting a witness describing a gas station robbery (Experiment 1) or a campus mugging (Experiment 2). Witness confidence and detectives' inferences about culprit information influenced the vetting process and lent credibility to a confident witness whose accuracy was objectively unknown. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that sworn law enforcement are comparable with untrained observers in their use of social inference cues (i.e. confidence) in determining witness credibility; however, social inference can be assuaged by the rational, rule‐governed, decision framework established for witness vetting. Social inference processes inherent in the detective‐witness dyad is influenced by legal procedures in vetting witness information. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parent–child resemblance and kin investment: Physical resemblance or personality similarity?

Resemblance between parents and children has been suggested as an indicator of kinship. Because men, unlike women, cannot be certain about parenthood, resemblance may influence men more than women when making investment decisions. In the present paper we examine the relation of physical resemblance and personality similarity with parental investment for 90 Dutch parents and their school-age children. For mothers investment was linked to personality similarity, whereas for fathers investment was linked to physical resemblance, suggesting that fathers are influenced by physical cues when making investment decisions, whereas mothers are influenced by psychological cues.     

Witnesses stumbling down memory lane: The effects of alcohol intoxication,retention interval,and repeated interviewing

Intoxicated eyewitnesses are often discredited by investigators and in court, but few studies have examined how alcohol affects witnesses’ memory. The primary aim of the present study was to examine how intoxication (alcohol vs. control), retention interval (immediate vs. one week delay), and number of interviews (one vs. two interviews) affect witnesses’ memory. The participants (N?=?99) were randomly assigned to consume either orange juice or alcohol mixed with orange juice, and they all witnessed a filmed mock crime afterwards. The recall took place either (a) immediately and after a one week delay or (b) after a one week delay only. No main effect of alcohol was found on the quantity or quality of the witnesses’ statements. Both intoxicated and sober witnesses recalled more details, and were more accurate, during immediate compared to delayed recall. For witnesses interviewed twice, an average of 30% new details were provided in the second compared to the first interview, and these were highly accurate. In sum, contrary to what one can expect, intoxicated witnesses with a low to moderate blood alcohol concentration (below 0.10%) were reliable witnesses.     

Intuition, reason, and metacognition

Dual Process Theories (DPT) of reasoning posit that judgments are mediated by both fast, automatic processes and more deliberate, analytic ones. A critical, but unanswered question concerns the issue of monitoring and control: When do reasoners rely on the first, intuitive output and when do they engage more effortful thinking? We hypothesised that initial, intuitive answers are accompanied by a metacognitive experience, called the Feeling of Rightness (FOR), which can signal when additional analysis is needed. In separate experiments, reasoners completed one of four tasks: conditional reasoning (N = 60), a three-term variant of conditional reasoning (N = 48), problems used to measure base rate neglect (N = 128), or a syllogistic reasoning task (N = 64). For each task, participants were instructed to provide an initial, intuitive response to the problem along with an assessment of the rightness of that answer (FOR). They were then allowed as much time as needed to reconsider their initial answer and provide a final answer. In each experiment, we observed a robust relationship between the FOR and two measures of analytic thinking: low FOR was associated with longer rethinking times and an increased probability of answer change. In turn, FOR judgments were consistently predicted by the fluency with which the initial answer was produced, providing a link to the wider literature on metamemory. These data support a model in which a metacognitive judgment about a first, initial model determines the extent of analytic engagement.     

Uniforms affect the accuracy of children's eyewitness identification decisions

A substantial proportion of line‐up identifications involving child eyewitnesses in the UK are conducted by police officers wearing uniform. This study examined the possibility that wearing a uniform constitutes an authority cue that adversely affects a child's ability to make accurate eyewitness identifications. Sixty participants aged 9–10 years old witnessed a staged crime and were later asked to identify a ‘burglar’ from a simultaneous line‐up using a 2 (uniform: present vs. absent) × 2 (target: present vs. absent) design. Children in the uniform present conditions made significantly more choices than children in the uniform absent conditions. More importantly, in the presence of a uniform, children made significantly more false identifications in target‐absent line‐ups. Analysis of supplementary, identification‐related variables (identification time and confidence, state anxiety) suggested that (1) the children experienced uncertainty if the target was absent from the line‐up, but (2) this uncertainty was not expressed when the line‐up administrator wore a uniform, leading to an increase in false identifications. Implications for line‐up administration procedures for children are discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Illusion of confirmation from exposure to another's hypothesis

We examine the influence of exposure to an advisor's hypothesis, in the form of a point estimate of an uncertain quantity, on subsequent point estimates and confidence judgments made by advisees. In three experiments, a group of unexposed advisees produced their own estimates before being presented with that of the advisor, while a group of exposed advisees were presented with the advisor's estimate before making their own. Not surprisingly, exposed advisees deliberately incorporated the information conveyed by the advisor's estimate in producing their own estimates. But the exposure manipulation also had a contaminating influence that shifted what the advisees viewed as their own, independent estimates toward those of the advisor. Seemingly unaware of this influence, exposed advisees were subject to an illusion of confirmation in which they expressed greater confidence in the accuracy of the advisor's estimate than did unexposed advisees. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

医患关系的博弈分析

医患关系是医疗中最基本最重要的关系,也是最复杂的人际关系,建立良好的医患关系是保证医疗工作顺利进行的必备条件。但是这种关系从开始就是有矛盾的,在信息不对称的情况下分析医患关系的博弈情况及其原因,发现医患关系的核心是信任,它为创造和谐医患关系提出对策,并能促进构建和谐医患关系。     

Facilitating eyewitness memory in adults and children with context reinstatement and focused meditation

This study examined the comparative efficacy of two brief techniques for facilitating eyewitness memory in police investigations. Adult and child participants (N = 126; 64 children and 62 adults) who had viewed a videotape of a crime were subsequently tested for their memory of the event following either a focused meditation procedure (FM, derived from hypnotic interviewing techniques), a context reinstatement procedure (CR, a component of the cognitive interview), or a control procedure (no memory facilitation instructions). For both adults and children, the FM and CR procedures enhanced performance on both open‐ended and closed questions to levels above those achieved by controls, although those in the CR condition produced significantly more correct responses than those in the FM condition. However, only those in the CR group displayed elevated levels of confidence in relation to incorrect responses on closed questions. Implications for the possible use of such procedures are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.