Bias-corrected estimation of the Rudas–Clogg–Lindsay mixture index of fit

Rudas, Clogg, and Lindsay (1994, J. R Stat Soc. Ser. B, 56, 623) introduced the so-called mixture index of fit, also known as pi-star (π*), for quantifying the goodness of fit of a model. It is the lowest proportion of ‘contamination’ which, if removed from the population or from the sample, makes the fit of the model perfect. The mixture index of fit has been widely used in psychometric studies. We show that the asymptotic confidence limits proposed by Rudas et al. (1994, J. R Stat Soc. Ser. B, 56, 623) as well as the jackknife confidence interval by Dayton ( 2003 , Br. J. Math. Stat. Psychol., 56, 1) perform poorly, and propose a new bias-corrected point estimate, a bootstrap test and confidence limits for pi-star. The proposed confidence limits have coverage probability much closer to the nominal level than the other methods do. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method in practice by presenting some practical applications to log-linear models for contingency tables.     

Why cannot reasons change your moral decisions? Because they are not persuasive enough: A comment on Stanley et al. (2018)

Stanley et al. (2018) found that the consideration of reasons rarely induced people to change their moral decisions. We challenged this article by assuming what caused such a null or weak effect was that the persuasiveness of reasons provided to oppose the initial decisions was not strong enough. To verify our assumption, this study used Stanley et al.’s (2018) experimental paradigm and manipulated the levels of persuasiveness of reasons. The results revealed (1) that not only strong opposing reasons but also weak affirming reasons could induce changes in moral decision-making and increase decision confidence after altering the decisions; (2) that people with a weak decision confidence tended to change their initial decisions after evaluation of reasons; and (3) that people who maintained their decisions after considering weak opposing reasons enhanced rather than reduced their decision confidence. Overall, these findings demonstrated that moral decision change was a composite outcome of the interaction among reason type, reason persuasiveness and initial decision confidence and that low-quality argumentation had a boomerang effect on moral persuasion. This study re-lifted the role of rational reasoning in moral decision-making and revising, thus posing important amendments to Stanley et al.’s (2018) findings.     

心理学关于目击证人证言可靠性实证研究

目击证人的证词在刑事诉讼中有着极为重要的作用,但是由于证人对案件的记忆往往会受到其自身和外界各种因素的干扰,因此,对于目击证人证词可靠性的研究引起了心理学界的关注,西方心理学界自上个世纪七十年代以来,从证人的年龄性别、心理状态、对证人的询问方式以及辨认的情景等方面进行了大量的实证研究,为司法实践提供了重要的启示。本文从以上四个方面全面总结了西方心理学界关于证人证词可靠性的实证研究,并作了分析与展望。     

Confidence interval-based sample size determination formulas and some mathematical properties for hierarchical data

The use of hierarchical data (also called multilevel data or clustered data) is common in behavioural and psychological research when data of lower-level units (e.g., students, clients, repeated measures) are nested within clusters or higher-level units (e.g., classes, hospitals, individuals). Over the past 25 years we have seen great advances in methods for computing the sample sizes needed to obtain the desired statistical properties for such data in experimental evaluations. The present research provides closed-form and iterative formulas for sample size determination that can be used to ensure the desired width of confidence intervals for hierarchical data. Formulas are provided for a four-level hierarchical linear model that assumes slope variances and inclusion of covariates under both balanced and unbalanced designs. In addition, we address several mathematical properties relating to sample size determination for hierarchical data via the standard errors of experimental effect estimates. These include the relative impact of several indices (e.g., random intercept or slope variance at each level) on standard errors, asymptotic standard errors, minimum required values at the highest level, and generalized expressions of standard errors for designs with any-level randomization under any number of levels. In particular, information on the minimum required values will help researchers to minimize the risk of conducting experiments that are statistically unlikely to show the presence of an experimental effect.     

Fourteen-month-olds’ imitation is influenced more strongly by a model’s competence than by a model’s certainty

Research has shown that infants are more likely to learn from certain and competent models than from uncertain and incompetent models. However, it is unknown which of these cues to a model’s reliability infants consider more important. In Experiment 1, we investigated whether 14-month-old infants (n = 35) imitate and adopt tool choices selectively from an uncertain but competent compared to a certain but incompetent model. Infants watched videos in which an adult expressed either uncertainty but acted competently or expressed certainty but acted incompetently with familiar objects. In tool-choice tasks, the adult then chose one of two objects to operate an apparatus, and in imitation tasks, the adult then demonstrated a novel action. Infants did not adopt the model’s choice in the tool-choice tasks but they imitated the uncertain but competent model more often than the certain but incompetent model in the imitation tasks. In Experiment 2, 14-month-olds (n = 33) watched videos in which an adult expressed only either certainty or uncertainty in order to test whether infants at this age are sensitive to a model’s certainty. Infants imitated and adopted the tool choice from a certain model more than from an uncertain model. These results suggest that 14-month-olds acknowledge both a model’s competence and certainty when learning novel actions. However, they rely more on a model’s competence than on his certainty when both cues are in conflict. The ability to detect reliable models when learning how to handle cultural artifacts helps infants to become well-integrated members of their culture.     

Examining the effects of memory specificity and perceptual load on susceptibility to misleading information

Our study aimed to examine the role of perceptual load in eyewitness memory and susceptibility to misinformation and establish whether trait-based memory specificity protects against misinformation. Participants (n = 264) viewed a video depicting a crime and completed a memory questionnaire immediately afterwards and 1 week later. Memory specificity was measured using the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT). Higher AMT scores were associated with better memory accuracy. Performance was worse in the high load compared to the low load condition at immediate recall. However, this effect was not seen for every question and load did not influence eyewitness identifications. To test the possibility that load effects were not fully captured by the questionnaire in experiment 1, we conducted a second experiment (n = 120) where we systematically manipulated misinformation about central and peripheral details. We found no effects. Our findings suggest that high perceptual load enhances eyewitness suggestibility, while specific autobiographical memory protects against misinformation.     

Asking an eyewitness to predict their later lineup performance could harm the confidence–accuracy relationship

Few studies have investigated eyewitnesses' ability to predict their later lineup performance, known as predecision confidence. We applied calibration analysis in two experiments comparing predecision confidence (immediately after encoding but prior to a lineup) to postdecision confidence (immediately after a lineup) to determine which produces a superior relationship with lineup decision accuracy. Experiment 1 (N = 177) featured a multiple-block lineup recognition paradigm featuring several targets and lineups; Experiment 2 featured an eyewitness identification paradigm with a mock-crime video and a single lineup for each participant (N = 855). Across both experiments, postdecision confidence discriminated well between correct and incorrect lineup decisions, but predecision confidence was a poor predictor of accuracy. Moreover, simply asking for predecision confidence weakened the postdecision confidence–accuracy relationship. This implies that police should exercise caution when interviewing eyewitnesses, as they should not be asked to predict their ability to make an accurate lineup decision.     

Mental Reinstatement of Context: Do individual differences in mental time travel and eyewitness occupation influence eyewitness performance over different delay intervals?

The Cognitive Interview is a memory‐enhancing interview protocol designed to optimise the access and retrieval of eyewitness memories. Its Mental Reinstatement of Context (MRC) component requires interviewees to mentally reconstruct the crime event they witnessed. Individual differences in mental time travel (MTT) relate to the extent to which a person mentally re‐experiences personal events from his or her past. Individual differences in MTT have been found to predict correct recall of a simulated crime event under immediate MRC recall conditions. To explore the relationship between MTT and performance under MRC conditions further, the present study presented a simulated crime video to 30 police officers and 26 members of the public. Eyewitness recall was tested under MRC conditions either immediately or 1 week later. Participants' general MTT and also MTT relating specifically to the crime video itself were measured via self‐report. Less correct information and more confabulations were produced after 1 week, but delay had no effect on the amount of incorrect information reported. No difference in recall was found between police officers and members of the public. Better quality MTT relating to the crime video was found to be a positive predictor of the amount of information correctly recalled under immediate conditions but not after 1 week. General MTT scores did not predict correct recall under either delay condition. Interviewers need to be aware that, due to individual differences, some witnesses may perform better under the MRC component than others.     

大学生成就动机、性格特征、控制点与自信关系的研究

本研究将成就动机、性格特征及内外控倾向三因素综合起来加以考察 ,探讨它们对大学生自信人格的影响作用及影响路径 ,从而揭示出四种人格特征之间的内在关系 ,2 3 5名大学生参加了测试。结果表明 :大学生成就动机、性格特征、内外控和自信等四种人格特征之间存在不同程度的相关 ;成就动机、内外控倾向和性别等主要变量对大学生自信有显著预测作用 ;成就动机和控制点对大学生自信具有直接效应 ,控制点和性格特征对自信具有间接效应