Bootstrap区间估计在认知诊断模型误设中的应用

认知诊断模型选择是认知诊断评估中重要研究问题之一。在实际应用中实践者并不知道真正拟合数据的模型,通常会用模型拟合指标检验模型与数据的拟合程度。从测量结果质量来看,除保证模型与数据拟合之外,还需要重点评价模型诊断结果的信度和效度等。考虑到以往研究大都采用基于信息量的拟合指标去判定模型与数据的匹配性,本研究提出综合考虑模型拟合指标与信度指标用于模型选择或评价模型误设。考虑实验因素为真实模型或分析模型（DINA模型、G-DINA模型、R-RUM模型）、样本量、题量和属性个数,在五因素（3×3×2×2×2）实验设计条件下,比较Bootstrap区间估计的属性分类一致性信度平均数与标准误和常用的拟合统计量-2LL、AIC、BIC对正确模型的选择率。结果表明：-2LL在题目数量多的情况下表现较好,而AIC、BIC在被试量较大的情况下表现较好,在不同的研究条件下,-2LL、AIC、BIC的模型选择率很不稳定,而用Bootstrap法估计的属性分类一致性信度平均数和标准误在不同研究条件的模型选择率较稳定,总体表现较好。     

欺骗识别的准确率：影响因素与提高途径

欺骗是一种常见的社会现象,通过观察他人的行为表现识别欺骗则是人们的一项重要能力。研究表明,人们的欺骗识别能力仅仅略微高于随机水平。本文关注基于行为线索的欺骗识别研究。首先,介绍欺骗识别的准确率;然后,结合Brunswik的透镜模型从欺骗线索的有效性和欺骗线索的利用两方面分析识别准确率的影响因素;并在此基础上探讨了提高识别准确率的途径。最后,对未来可能的研究方向进行展望。     

On Consistent Subsets of Large Sets of Satisfiable Sentences

We extend some results of Adam Kolany to show that large sets of satisfiable sentences generally contain equally large subsets of mutually consistent sentences. In particular, this is always true for sets of uncountable cofinality, and remains true for sets of denumerable cofinality if we put appropriate bounding conditions on the sentences. The results apply to both the propositional and the predicate calculus. To obtain these results, we use delta sets for regular cardinals, and, for singular cardinals, a generalization of delta sets. All of our results are theorems in ZFC.     

Multilevel Modeling with Correlated Effects

When there exist omitted effects, measurement error, and/or simultaneity in multilevel models, explanatory variables may be correlated with random components, and standard estimation methods do not provide consistent estimates of model parameters. This paper introduces estimators that are consistent under such conditions. By employing generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques in multilevel modeling, the authors present a series of estimators along a robust to efficient continuum. This continuum depends on the assumptions that the analyst makes regarding the extent of the correlated effects. It is shown that the GMM approach provides an overarching framework that encompasses well-known estimators such as fixed and random effects estimators and also provides more options. These GMM estimators can be expressed as instrumental variable (IV) estimators which enhances their interpretability. Moreover, by exploiting the hierarchical structure of the data, the current technique does not require additional variables unlike traditional IV methods. Further, statistical tests are developed to compare the different estimators. A simulation study examines the finite sample properties of the estimators and tests and confirms the theoretical order of the estimators with respect to their robustness and efficiency. It further shows that not only are regression coefficients biased, but variance components may be severely underestimated in the presence of correlated effects. Empirical standard errors are employed as they are less sensitive to correlated effects when compared to model-based standard errors. An example using student achievement data shows that GMM estimators can be effectively used in a search for the most efficient among unbiased estimators. This research was supported by the National Academy of Education/Spencer Foundation and the National Science Foundation, grant number SES-0436274. We thank the editor, associate editor, and referees for detailed feedback that helped improve the paper.     

Implicit–Explicit Relations

ABSTRACT— Mental process and mental experience are not the same thing. The former is the operation of the mind; the latter is the subjective life that emerges from that operation. In social evaluation, implicit and explicit attitudes express this distinction. Although it is clear that they are not the same, how they differ is not. Across content domains, implicit and explicit attitude measures show substantial variability in the strength of correspondence, ranging from near zero to strongly positive. Variation in controllability, intentionality, awareness, or efficiency is thought to differentiate implicit and explicit attitudes. Dual-process theories and empirical evidence for moderating influences of implicit–explicit attitude relations provide a framework for comprehending relations between the operation and the experience of the mind.     

归因双重过程模型研究

目的:探讨在中国文化背景下,个体的归因过程是否一个双重过程,包括内隐归因和外显归因。方法:本研究同时采用外显的自陈式量表和自行设计的内隐联想测验(IAT),对归因的过程进行了探讨。结果:(1)归因是一个双重过程模型,包括内隐归因和外显归因;(2)个体的归因偏差受个体内隐归因影响;(3)归因的双重过程模型不受性别及经验因素影响。结论:归因是一个双重的过程。     

关于服刑人员的内隐攻击性研究

本研究采用IAT测验探讨服刑人员外显和内隐攻击性。研究发现：服刑人员存在着内隐攻击性,且无性别差异;回归分析表明,在控制外显攻击性后,IAT测量的内隐攻击性与服刑人员刑期相关显著。研究并对内隐攻击性和外显攻击性作为独立心理结构的可能理论基础及其相应神经机制作了探讨。     

小学生外显的说明性文本段落主旨推断学习研究

研究72位不同语文能力的小学五年级男女学生,通过外显的计算机学习软件,运用6种推断策略：主题、细节、综合、主旨方程式、自我提问和文本结构,从没有主题句的说明性文本推断段落主旨的成效。研究发现学生最常用的策略是细节和综合,不同语文能力和性别的学生的学习成效都十分显著。     

Shedding new light on an old problem: The estimation of shadow sizes in children and adults

Two experiments using the 'projection of shadows' paradigm investigated multidimensional reasoning, implicit and explicit knowledge, and the nonlinearity concept in 5-, 9-, and 13-year-olds and adults. Participants estimated the resulting shadow lengths of differently sized objects, placed at varying distances from a light source. Experiment 1 (N=80) revealed that, on the group level, 5-year-olds took both object size and light-object distance into account when estimating shadow size. Moreover, half of the children in this age group even considered the subordinate distance dimension. In addition, we found a large discrepancy between implicit and explicit knowledge about shadows in 5-year-olds that decreased with age. Finally, only a minority of older participants and very few younger children recognized the nonlinear relationship between light-object distance and shadow size, suggesting domain dependence of the nonlinearity concept. Experiment 2 (N=20) predominately replicated the findings for 5-year-olds using slightly different stimuli.     

Reference-dependent utility with shifting reference points and incomplete preferences

Many empirical studies have shown that people's preferences are reference-dependent. Previous theoretical studies of reference-dependence assumed that the reference point was fixed and then imposed the usual assumptions of decision theory, in particular completeness of preferences. This paper gives preference foundations for additive reference-dependent utility when the reference point varies across decisions and is one of the options in the decision maker's opportunity set. This decision situation is common, for example because usually the retention of the status quo is an available option, but is difficult to handle axiomatically because it implies incompleteness of preferences. The results of this paper provide tools to extend existing theories of reference-dependent preferences, such as prospect theory, to new and empirically important decision contexts.