Sophie P. Barnes  Stephanie M. Jones  Rebecca Bailey 《Developmental science》2023,26(4):e13355

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Paul Goodwin  Sinan Gnül  Dilek nkal  Aye Kocab&#x;y&#x;kolu  Celile It&#x;r Gü 《决策行为杂志》2019,32(5):536-549

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.  相似文献   

    

Adam Feltz  Edward Cokely 《Philosophical Psychology》2019,32(3):388-403

ABSTRACT

The past ten years have seen multiple attempts to estimate the relation between the global personality trait extraversion and compatibilist free will judgments. Here, we contribute to that line of research by conducting a meta-analysis of 17 published and eight unpublished studies (N = 2,811) estimating that relation. Overall, the mean effect size was modest but remarkably robust across materials, locations, and labs (z = .19, 95% CI .15-.24, p < .001). No significant publication bias was detected in the studies (t (23) = 1.88, p = .07). While there was no significant heterogeneity in the studies (Q (24) = 34.42, p = .08, I² = 26.05), a moderator analysis suggested that the effect is strongest in cases that contain highly affective actions (e.g., murder) (z = .22, 95% CI .17-.28, p < .001) and weakest in cases that contain actions with low affect (e.g., asking whether free will is compatible with determinism) (z = .09, 95% CI -.05-.23, p = .22). The meta-analysis provides additional evidence that extraversion is related to compatibilist free will judgments and helps to identify opportunities to discover boundary conditions and more proximal causal mechanisms for the relation. The results of the meta-analysis also have implications for informed decision making.  相似文献   

    

Tina Urbach  Oliver Weigelt 《Journal of Occupational & Organizational Psychology》2019,92(4):931-952

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Sean F. Everton  Robert Schroeder 《Journal for the scientific study of religion》2019,58(4):775-789

In his book, The Rise of Christianity, Rodney Stark argues that the early Christian church indirectly benefitted from the plagues that struck the early Roman Empire in the 2nd and 3rd centuries of the Common Era. In particular, he argues that the early church's doctrines concerning love, charity, and social service would have led Christians to enjoy higher survival rates than pagans, which would have left the social networks of the former relatively intact, while those of the latter in disarray. Moreover, since recruitment to new religious movements occurs largely through social ties, the probability that an average pagan would have converted to Christianity would have been greater after the plagues than before. In this article, we use computer modeling to test Stark's hypothesis. Not only do we find support for his hypothesis, we also show that higher survival rates for either group not only would have benefitted their respective social networks but also would have benefitted their competitor's social networks, highlighting how network effects often flow in multiple and unexpected ways. We conclude with suggestions for future research, in particular how scholars can build upon our analyses and explore alternative assumptions.  相似文献   

    

Christina T. Saunders  Jeffrey D. Blume 《Multivariate behavioral research》2019,54(4):555-577

We introduce and extend the classical regression framework for conducting mediation analysis from the fit of only one model. Using the essential mediation components (EMCs) allows us to estimate causal mediation effects and their analytical variance. This single-equation approach reduces computation time and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations. Additionally, we extend this framework to non-nested mediation systems, provide a joint measure of mediation for complex mediation hypotheses, propose new visualizations for mediation effects, and explain why estimates of the total effect may differ depending on the approach used. Using data from social science studies, we also provide extensive illustrations of the usefulness of this framework and its advantages over traditional approaches to mediation analysis. The example data are freely available for download online and we include the R code necessary to reproduce our results.  相似文献   

    

Emily J. Cross  Nickola C. Overall 《European journal of social psychology》2019,49(5):1022-1041

Men's hostile sexism promotes aggressive attitudes, motivations and behaviors toward women. Despite the costs these effects should have for women, prior research has failed to test how men's hostile sexism predicts the problems women experience in important domains. We address this oversight by utilizing dyadic data from 363 heterosexual couples to test how male partners’ hostile sexism predicts women's relationship experiences and evaluations. Male partners’ hostile sexism was associated with women experiencing more severe problems across a greater number of domains. Moreover, the areas experienced as most problematic were consistent with the power, dependence, and trust concerns underlying men's hostile sexism, including problems with power dynamics, jealousy, and serious problems involving gender-role conflict, abuse, infidelity and alcohol/drugs. The greater problems associated with male partners’ hostile sexism predicted more negative relationship evaluations for women. These results demonstrate the importance of examining how men's hostile sexism harms women in important life domains.  相似文献   

    

Stefanie A. Wind  Edward W. Wolfe  George Engelhard Jr.  Peter Foltz  Mark Rosenstein 《International Journal of Testing》2018,18(1):27-49

Automated essay scoring engines (AESEs) are becoming increasingly popular as an efficient method for performance assessments in writing, including many language assessments that are used worldwide. Before they can be used operationally, AESEs must be “trained” using machine-learning techniques that incorporate human ratings. However, the quality of the human ratings used to train the AESEs is rarely examined. As a result, the impact of various rater effects (e.g., severity and centrality) on the quality of AESE-assigned scores is not known. In this study, we use data from a large-scale rater-mediated writing assessment to examine the impact of rater effects on the quality of AESE-assigned scores. Overall, the results suggest that if rater effects are present in the ratings used to train an AESE, the AESE scores may replicate these effects. Implications are discussed in terms of research and practice related to automated scoring.  相似文献   

    

María Rubio‐Aparicio  Julio Sánchez‐Meca  José Antonio López‐López  Juan Botella  Fulgencio Marín‐Martínez 《The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology》2017,70(3):439-456

Subgroup analyses allow us to examine the influence of a categorical moderator on the effect size in meta‐analysis. We conducted a simulation study using a dichotomous moderator, and compared the impact of pooled versus separate estimates of the residual between‐studies variance on the statistical performance of the Q _{B (P)} and Q _{B (S)} tests for subgroup analyses assuming a mixed‐effects model. Our results suggested that similar performance can be expected as long as there are at least 20 studies and these are approximately balanced across categories. Conversely, when subgroups were unbalanced, the practical consequences of having heterogeneous residual between‐studies variances were more evident, with both tests leading to the wrong statistical conclusion more often than in the conditions with balanced subgroups. A pooled estimate should be preferred for most scenarios, unless the residual between‐studies variances are clearly different and there are enough studies in each category to obtain precise separate estimates.  相似文献   

    

Kai Kaspar  Melanie Grümmer  Antje Kießler  Celina Neuß  Franziska Schröter 《International journal of psychology》2017,52(6):491-498

Research across different fields of psychology has reported effects of colour cues on a variety of cognitive processes. Especially, the colour red has been shown to have striking influences. In the context of media reception, however, colour effects have been widely neglected so far. This study made a first step in this direction by investigating the effects of the colour red (compared with blue and grey) on the way news articles are evaluated. Two types of news were framed by a coloured border while the valence of the news content additionally varied. Based on 369 participants who read and evaluated the news articles online, we observed effects for colour cues and news valence in the absence of an interaction effect, indicating that the colour red induced approach motivation. However, only the contrast between red and grey reached statistical significance, indicating that chromatic and achromatic colours may differ in their perceived visual saliency. Overall, these results provide an important complement to previous studies and have practical implications for media researchers and producers.  相似文献