Linking property crime using offender crime scene behaviour: A comparison of methods

This study compared the ability of seven statistical models to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The seven models utilised geographical, temporal, and modus operandi information relating to residential burglaries (n = 180), commercial robberies, (n = 118), and car thefts (n = 376). Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by examining the success with which the seven models could successfully prioritise linked over unlinked crimes. The regression‐based and probabilistic models achieved comparable accuracy and were generally more accurate than the tree‐based models tested in this study. The Logistic algorithm achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) for residential burglary (AUC = 0.903) and commercial robbery (AUC = 0.830) and the SimpleLogistic algorithm achieving the highest for car theft (AUC = 0.820). The findings also indicated that discrimination accuracy is maximised (in some situations) if behavioural domains are utilised rather than individual crime scene behaviours and that the AUC should not be used as the sole measure of accuracy in behavioural crime linkage research.     

Working alliance as a predictor of change in depression during blended cognitive behaviour therapy

Blended Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (bCBT) is a new form of treatment, mixing internet-based modules and face-to-face therapist sessions. How participants rate the therapeutic alliance in bCBT has not yet been thoroughly explored, and neither is it clear whether therapist- and patient-rated alliances are predictors of change in depression during treatment. Depression and alliance ratings from 73 participants in a treatment study on bCBT (part of the E-COMPARED project) were analysed using growth curve models. Alliance, as rated by both patients and therapists, was high. The therapist-rated working alliance was predictive of subsequent changes in depression scores during treatment, whereas the patient-rated alliance was not. A therapeutic alliance can be established in bCBT. The role of the therapist-rated alliance seems to be of particular importance and should be carefully considered when collecting data in future studies on bCBT.     

Illusory inferences with quantifiers

The psychological study of reasoning with quantifiers has predominantly focused on inference patterns studied by Aristotle about two millennia ago. Modern logic has shown a wealth of inference patterns involving quantifiers that are far beyond the expressive power of Aristotelian syllogisms, and whose psychology should be explored. We bring to light a novel class of fallacious inference patterns, some of which are so attractive that they are tantamount to cognitive illusions. In tandem with recent insights from linguistics that quantifiers like “some” are treated as wh-questions, these illusory inferences are predicted by the erotetic theory of reasoning, which postulates that a process akin to question asking and answering is behind human inference making.     

The 1.5 Criterion Model of Creativity: Where Less Is More,More or Less

We argue that the future of creativity research should focus on the dual goals of the development of individuals with great creative genius as well as the enhancement of creative activity in society in general. To achieve these goals, we need basic research that will help us better understand the fundamental nature of creativity. We describe an approach to creativity that emphasizes novelty over utility.     

Assessment of Differential Rater Functioning in Latent Classes with New Mixture Facets Models

Multifaceted data are very common in the human sciences. For example, test takers' responses to essay items are marked by raters. If multifaceted data are analyzed with standard facets models, it is assumed there is no interaction between facets. In reality, an interaction between facets can occur, referred to as differential facet functioning. A special case of differential facet functioning is the interaction between ratees and raters, referred to as differential rater functioning (DRF). In existing DRF studies, the group membership of ratees is known, such as gender or ethnicity. However, DRF may occur when the group membership is unknown (latent) and thus has to be estimated from data. To solve this problem, in this study, we developed a new mixture facets model to assess DRF when the group membership is latent and we provided two empirical examples to demonstrate its applications. A series of simulations were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the new model in the DRF assessment in the Bayesian framework. Results supported the use of the mixture facets model because all parameters were recovered fairly well, and the more data there were, the better the parameter recovery.     

Divided attention enhances explicit but not implicit conceptual memory: an item-specific account of the attentional boost effect

The Attentional Boost Effect (ABE) refers to the counterintuitive finding that words encoded with to-be-responded targets in a divided-attention condition are remembered better than words encoded with distractors. Previous studies suggested that the ABE-related enhancement of verbal memory depends upon the activation of abstract lexical representations. In the present study, we extend this hypothesis by embedding it in the context of a broader perspective, which proposes that divided attention in the ABE paradigm affects item-specific, but not relational, processing. To this purpose, we examined the ABE in the matched tasks of category-cued recall (CCRT: explicit memory) and category exemplar generation (CEGT: implicit memory). In addition, study time was varied (500, 1500 or 4000?ms), to further determine whether the attentional boost manipulation could influence late-phase elaborative processing. In agreement with the predictions of the item-specific account, the results showed that exemplars encoded with targets were recalled better than exemplars encoded with distractors in the CCRT, but not in the CEGT. Moreover, performance in the CCRT increased with study time, whereas the size of the ABE-related enhancement tended to decrease, further confirming that this effect hinges upon early phase encoding processes.     

Scrutinizing the Emotional Nature of Intuitive Coherence Judgments

Dual‐system models propose that cognitive processing can occur either intuitively or deliberately. Unlike deliberate decision strategies, intuitive ones are assumed to have an emotional component attached to the decision process. We tested if intuitive decisions are indeed accompanied by an emotional response while deliberate decisions are not. Specifically, we conducted a psychophysiological study in which participants were instructed to decide either intuitively or deliberately if three simultaneously presented words were semantically coherent or incoherent (triad task). The degree of emotionality of these two decision strategies (intuitive vs. deliberate) was compared using changes in electrodermal activity (EDA) and the reaction time (RT) effect of an affective priming paradigm as primary measurements. Based on a valence‐arousal model, our results revealed that intuitive and deliberate judgments do not differ as to their emotional valence but that they do differ in emotional arousal. Most notably, sympathetic activation during intuitive judgments was significantly lower compared to sympathetic activation during deliberate judgments. Our results reflect that a relaxed state of mind—manifested in low sympathetic activity—could underlie the holistic processing that is assumed to facilitate the proliferation of semantic associations during coherence judgments. This suggests that coherence judgments made under an (instructed) intuitive decision mode have a specific psychophysiological signature and that arousal is the differentiating component between intuitive and deliberate decision strategies. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Effects of interaction pattern on family harmony and well-being: Test of interpersonal theory, Relational-Models theory, and Confucian ethics

Two studies, involving 242 and 245 families, respectively, were conducted to explore the effects of family interaction on family harmony and well-being. Hypotheses were drawn from interpersonal theory, Relational-Models theory, and Confucian ethics. Each of the four members in a family, including father, mother, son, and daughter, completed a questionnaire designed to assess their behaviors toward each of the other three members. Six categories of interpersonal behavior were measured, including love, directing, domineering, hostility, submission, and respect. Both studies found that family affective interaction pattern following the Communal Sharing model contributed to family harmony and well-being. For each family relationship, the existence of particular forms of status differential (Authority Ranking) was beneficial, and several factors, such as role expectation and complementarity, moderated the effects of the status differential of a particular relationship. In general, positive effects were associated with interaction patterns which were consistent with Confucian ethics.     

THEOLOGY AND PHYSICS FORTY YEARS LATER

Abstract. Almost forty years later I look back on a 1966 article on theology and physics by Sanford Brown and my response published with it. I reflect on his hope that theological seminaries would give attention to the methods used in scientific inquiry. I compare our comments with subsequent thought on three issues: (1) the role of models in science and religion; (2) the relation of wholes to parts in physics and other sciences and the debate over reductionism and emergence; and (3) the implications of quantum physics for theology, including the possibility of divine action at the quantum level.     

Explaining after by before: Basic aspects of a dynamic systems approach to the study of development

The basic properties of a dynamic systems approach of development are illustrated by contrasting two simple equations. One, y_t+1 = f (y_t), is characteristic of dynamic systems models. The other, y_i = f (x_i), refers to what, for the sake of simplicity, is referred to as the standard developmental approach. We give illustrations from cognitive, language and social development to show the characteristic differences of these two types of models and show their complementarity. The article further compares the “Bloomington” with the “Groningen” approach to dynamic systems theorizing in developmental psychology. It continues with a discussion of two important questions. One involves the issue of measurement and the nature of developmental variables from the viewpoint of dynamic systems. The second concerns the question of short- and long-term time scales in developmental models, which is discussed on the basis of an example, namely dyadic interaction of young children in the context of different social statuses.