Multilevel Modeling with Correlated Effects

When there exist omitted effects, measurement error, and/or simultaneity in multilevel models, explanatory variables may be correlated with random components, and standard estimation methods do not provide consistent estimates of model parameters. This paper introduces estimators that are consistent under such conditions. By employing generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques in multilevel modeling, the authors present a series of estimators along a robust to efficient continuum. This continuum depends on the assumptions that the analyst makes regarding the extent of the correlated effects. It is shown that the GMM approach provides an overarching framework that encompasses well-known estimators such as fixed and random effects estimators and also provides more options. These GMM estimators can be expressed as instrumental variable (IV) estimators which enhances their interpretability. Moreover, by exploiting the hierarchical structure of the data, the current technique does not require additional variables unlike traditional IV methods. Further, statistical tests are developed to compare the different estimators. A simulation study examines the finite sample properties of the estimators and tests and confirms the theoretical order of the estimators with respect to their robustness and efficiency. It further shows that not only are regression coefficients biased, but variance components may be severely underestimated in the presence of correlated effects. Empirical standard errors are employed as they are less sensitive to correlated effects when compared to model-based standard errors. An example using student achievement data shows that GMM estimators can be effectively used in a search for the most efficient among unbiased estimators. This research was supported by the National Academy of Education/Spencer Foundation and the National Science Foundation, grant number SES-0436274. We thank the editor, associate editor, and referees for detailed feedback that helped improve the paper.     

Arguments,Meta-arguments,and Metadialogues: A Reconstruction of Krabbe,Govier, and Woods

Krabbe (2003, in F.H. van Eemeren, J.A. Blair, C.A. Willard and A.F. Snoeck Henkemans (eds.), Proceedings of the Fifth Conference of the International Society for the Study of Argumentation, Sic Sat, Amsterdam, pp. 641–644) defined a metadialogue as a dialogue about one or more dialogues, and a ground-level dialogue as a dialogue that is not a metadialogue. Similarly, I define a meta-argument as an argument about one or more arguments, and a ground-level argument as one which is not a meta-argument. Krabbe (1995, in F.H van Eemeren, R. Grootendorst, J.A. Blair, C.A. Willard and A.F. Snoeck Henkemans (eds.), Proceedings of the Third ISSA Conference on Argumentation, Sic Sat, Amsterdam, pp. 333–344) showed that formal-fallacy criticism (and more generally, fallacy criticism) consists of metadialogues, and that such metadialogues can be profiled in ways that lead to their proper termination or resolution. I reconstruct Krabbe’s metadialogical account into monolectical, meta-argumentative terminology by describing three-types of meta-arguments corresponding to the three ways of proving formal invalidity he studied: the trivial logic-indifferent method; the method of counterexample situation; and the method of formal paraphrase. A fourth type of meta-argument corresponds to what Oliver (1967, Mind 76, 463–478), Govier (1985, Informal Logic 7, 27–33), and Copi (1986) call refutation by logical analogy. A fifth type of meta-argument represents my reconstruction of arguments by parity of reasoning studied by Woods and Hudak (1989, Informal Logic 11, 125–139). Other particular meta-arguments deserving future study are Hume’s critique of the argument from design in the Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion, and Mill’s initial argument in The Subjection of Women about the importance of established custom and general feeling vis-à-vis argumentation.     

瘢痕治疗的选择与思考

瘢痕作为人类最常见的疾病之一,其治疗一直是整形外科界研究的热点和焦点。本文从治疗方法的发展过程,认识到科学的认识论对方法论具有良好的指导作用,满意的治疗其根本在于提高医生的素质,从哲学角度对如何科学的选择治疗方法进行总结,指明从根本上解决瘢痕,最终要依靠现代发达的基础科学研究。     

与《告别中医中药》论者商榷

《告别中医中药》一文的立论和方法是不可取的;《告别中医中药》一文的四点论据还需商榷,《告别中医中药》一文与党的中医政策和构建社会主义和谐社会有着不和谐的声音.中医和西医与其他自然科学一样在各自起作用的范围内存在和发展.     

宽恕的心理学研究

文章介绍了宽恕在汉语、圣经和新约中的含义并对宽恕的操作性定义进行了讨论。简要阐述了宽恕研究中常用的三种研究方法——叙事法、问卷法和实验法。最后阐述了共情、责任归因、侵犯的后果及道歉、人际关系、人格、文化背景对宽恕的影响。     

项目反应理论框架下的新等值方法——对数对比等值法

项目反应理论有一些以除法形式给出的多级评分模型,若采用Haebara等值法、Stocking_Lord等值法或对称相对熵等值法进行测验等值,都因其对初值有较高要求而可能导致失败。针对这一类模型,我们给出了一种新的等值方法——对数对比等值法。这种方法收敛快,对迭代初值要求低,所得结果精度较高,可以为其他等值方法提供良好的初值。研究表明,对数对比等值法还改进和推广了0-1评分的两参数Logistic模型的Logit变换等值法     

运动性心理疲劳问题的研究现状

通过对运动性心理疲劳概念和检测评价方法等问题的国内外研究现状及其局限性和不足进行的综述讨论,作者分析指出目前关于运动性心理疲劳问题的有关研究成果满足不了中国训练体系下训练实践的需要,提出有必要系统进行运动性心理疲劳问题的实证研究。就心理疲劳问题的研究方向和研究切入点,作者认为应综合开展运动性心理疲劳神经生理与心理机制的探索性研究。研究的主要切入点包括：（1）研究建立适合中国运动训练体制与环境的运动性心理疲劳概念,构建运动性心理疲劳概念模型;（2）基于此模型研究建立多维检测评价方法系统和运动性心理疲劳问卷。研究过程中要将神经生理方法与心理测量、行为观察等方法结合起来同步测量,在训练过程中开展纵向追踪与横向调查综合性的实证研究     

Representational change and children's numerical estimation

We applied overlapping waves theory and microgenetic methods to examine how children improve their estimation proficiency, and in particular how they shift from reliance on immature to mature representations of numerical magnitude. We also tested the theoretical prediction that feedback on problems on which the discrepancy between two representations is greatest will cause the greatest representational change. Second graders who initially were assessed as relying on an immature representation were presented feedback that varied in degree of discrepancy between the predictions of the mature and immature representations. The most discrepant feedback produced the greatest representational change. The change was strikingly abrupt, often occurring after a single feedback trial, and impressively broad, affecting estimates over the entire range of numbers from 0 to 1000. The findings indicated that cognitive change can occur at the level of an entire representation, rather than always involving a sequence of local repairs.     

Rule following and rule use in the balance-scale task

Quinlan et al. [Quinlan, p., van der Mass, H., Jansen, B., Booij, O., & Rendell, M. (this issue). Re-thinking stages of cognitive development: An appraisal of connectionist models of the balance scale task. Cognition, doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2006.02.004] use Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to criticize a connectionist model of development on the balance-scale task, arguing that LCA shows that this model fails to capture a torque rule and exhibits rules that children do not. In this rejoinder we focus on the latter problem, noting the tendency of LCA to find small, unreliable, and difficult-to-interpret classes. This tendency is documented in network and synthetic simulations and in psychological research, and statistical reasons for finding such unreliable classes are discussed. We recommend that LCA should be used with care, and argue that its small and unreliable classes should be discounted. Further, we note that a preoccupation with diagnosing rules ignores important phenomena that rules do not account for. Finally, we conjecture that simple extensions of the network model should be able to achieve torque-rule performance.     

Establishing a generalized repertoire of helping behavior in children with autism

The present study used a multiple baseline across participants design to assess whether 4 children with autism could learn a generalized repertoire of helping adults with different tasks through the use of a multicomponent teaching package. Different helping responses were taught in the presence of multiple exemplars of discriminative stimuli drawn from experimenter-defined categories of helping behavior (e.g., locating objects, putting away items, setting up an activity). During the training condition, video models, prompting, and reinforcement were used. The results showed that all 4 children learned to emit appropriate helping responses in the presence of discriminative stimuli from the helping categories used during training. Generalization of helping responses was observed in the presence of untrained discriminative stimuli during additional probe conditions. Additional pre- and postintervention generalization trials showed that the frequency of helping responses also increased in the presence of novel stimuli, in a novel setting, and with a novel instructor.